【卫报】脱欧之后，英国该何去何从？丨第3期

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union: consensus not confrontation | Editorial
《卫报》社评：脱欧和联盟----要共识不要对抗

       The first meeting of the leaders of the devolved administrations was not a good start. Mrs May must work for their support
       地区领导人的第一次会议没能打好第一枪。梅姨需要寻求他们更多的支持

 Editorial | 901 words
社论 | 901字

‍‍Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon leaves 10 Downing Street after holding Brexit talks with Theresa May and the first ministers of Wales and Northern Ireland. 'Behind the bold simplicities of freedom of movement, the single market and free trade lurk a thousand variables that have different effects on different parts of the UK.' Photograph: Daniel Leal-Olivas/AFP/Getty Images 

苏格兰首席大臣 Nicola Sturgeon 在与特蕾莎.梅以及威尔士和北爱尔兰首席大臣们举行脱欧会谈后离开了唐宁街10号。“在自由迁徙大胆简化的背后，单一市场和自由贸易暗藏着上千个变量，将对英国不同地区产生不同的影响。”摄影：Daniel Leal-Olivas /法新社 /盖蒂图片社

Getting out of the EU without precipitating a constitutional crisis is going to be a severe test of the UK's politicians and the political arrangements in which they operate. It will require tact, diplomacy, patience, and a willingness to try to reach a consensus. So far, there is little evidence of any of these qualities. Most of the blame for that must fall on the prime minister, since although all the participants - the leaders of the devolved assemblies and the UK parliament - have a role in this unprecedented process, she sets the tone: so far, it has been confrontational. She has little alternative but to accept the result, and to play for time while Whitehall works out what needs doing and in what order. But she has sounded high-handed on a hard Brexit, on engaging with parliament and now on the role of the devolved administrations that could lead, all too easily, to the break-up of the United Kingdom. 

脱离欧盟且不引发宪法危机是对英国政客和其政治行动的严峻考验，这需要智慧、外交、耐心和想要达成共识的强烈意愿。就目前看，还看不出梅姨具备了这些特质。大部分的责难都落在了她头上，尽管所有参与者----地区议会和英国的领导者----在这史无前例的事件中也脱不了干系，但目前为止，是她定下了对抗性基调，她得负大部分的责任。她别无选择只能接受这样的结果，在需要做什么和以什么次序做方面跟白厅周旋。但她坚持对英国脱欧和对议会及对地区政府采取的强硬态度，这都很容易造成英国的分裂。

Today's meeting of the joint ministerial committee of the leaders of Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland with Theresa May and her ministers - not only the first since the referendum, but the first for nearly two years - was an indication of how quickly it could all go wrong. After a morning of "robust" discussion, the first ministers emerged complaining about the government's lack of transparency and its failure to make any concessions on their key demand of continuing access to the single market.

今天，苏格兰、威尔士、北爱尔兰的领导人和特蕾莎梅及其大臣们举行的联合大臣级委员会，不只是公投以来，而且是将近两年来的首例，暗示着英国内部早就有分崩离析的迹象。经一个早上“热烈”的讨论，首席大臣抱怨说现政府缺乏透明度，未能在继续一致对外（进入单一市场）的关键需求上做出任何让步。

While much of this is predictable and not entirely unrelated to domestic considerations, it underlines the importance - as a new report from the Institute for Government explains in detail - of reaching common positions as a basis for future negotiations with Brussels, through teamwork between Whitehall officials and the devolved administrations. London too should be part of this process; the absence of a specifically English regional voice is a weakness. A negotiation that goes as far as possible to reach a position that leavers and remainers can both accept is essential. 

虽然这种情况早就知道，且不完全是基于对国内因素的考虑，政府研究所的一份新报告对此有详细阐述，强调白厅官员和地区政府之间的合作达成共识，对未来与布鲁塞尔的谈判至关重要。伦敦也应该是此谈判过程的一分子，任何一个英语地区的失声都会是其弱点。尽可能照顾到各方，让离开的和留下的都可以接受是基本前提。

Behind the bold simplicities of freedom of movement, the single market and free trade lurk a thousand variables that have different effects on different parts of the UK. Trade in particular, which once merely meant tangible goods, is now a huge and complex area that embraces intellectual property, public service procurement, financial and other services. The continuing crisis over Ceta, the Canadian trade deal with the EU that was a decade in the making, is a reminder of how easily it can all go wrong. The power that two of Belgium's regional bodies exploited last week to veto the deal because of concerns over the impact of globalisation on jobs and the power that it gives to corporations to sue nation states, was only conceded by Brussels in order to try to ensure democratic legitimacy. It is easy to imagine a similar revolt against a Brexit deal: that is, after all, what the leavers' slogan of taking back control implies. 

在自由迁徙大胆简化的背后，单一市场和自由贸易暗藏着上千个变量，会对英国不同地区产生不同的影响。尤其在贸易领域，过去仅仅是有形商品，而现代贸易却包含特别巨大而复杂的领域，如知识产权、公共服务采购、金融和其他服务。十年来，加拿大与欧盟的自由贸易协定一直在谈判中，不停地遭遇危机，时刻提醒着脱欧会随时流产。比利时的两个区域实体因为考虑到全球化对就业的影响，利用手上的权力否决了英国脱欧，这是赋予企业的可以起诉国家的权力，布鲁塞尔也只好让步以确保民主的合法性。不难想象还有类似反对脱欧的事件，毕竟，那些嚷嚷着要脱欧的人只是想收回控制权。

There is another reason why Mrs May must make a priority of working for consensus - certainly much more than she has so far - between the four nations. If she does not, she will collide with the complications of a series of overlapping mandates that arise from the failure to include a "dual majority" clause in the EU referendum act. That would have required all four nations of the UK to have majorities in order to overturn the status quo; it would have avoided the situation faced now where Scotland and Northern Ireland, each with their own electoral legitimacy, demand that the terms of the negotiation recognise that they are faced with seriously damaging consequences from a decision that their voters rejected. 

还有一个梅姨为什么必须优先考虑如何在四个国家之间达成共识的原因--当然迄今为止她是日短心长。否则，她将被一系列重叠的命令所产生的并发症缠身，包括欧盟公投法中的条款“双重多数”（译者注：里斯本条约》从2014年开始，以“双重多数表决制”取代目前的“有效多数表决制”，即有关决议必须至少获得55％的成员国和65％的欧盟人口的赞同，才算通过。“双重多数表决制”实施后的3年为过渡期。）。此条款本来要求联合王国的四个国家中想推翻现状的占多数；这样就可以避免现在直面苏格兰和北爱尔兰这些都有选举权国家的形势, 苏格兰和北爱尔兰要求谈判的条款要意识到选民投反对票给他们带来的严重后果。

Mrs May's response so far is to insist that her government alone controls the process. Technically, she is right both about negotiating withdrawal from the EU, and about the established relations with the devolved assemblies: neither trade nor international relations are devolved matters. However, typically of Britain's constitutional arrangements, the relationship between devolved and non-devolved matters often turns out to be a matter of negotiation. And the politics of it are likely to privilege the devolved bodies, not least because much of the detail of the Brexit negotiations - on fisheries, food, farming and the environment, for example - are of intense concern to them.

到目前为止，梅姨的反应仍是坚持她的政府独自掌控全过程。从技术上讲，关于谈判退出欧盟，以及建立与地区议会的关系上，她都是对的：因为无论是贸易还是国际关系都是移交事宜。然而，根据英国通常的宪政安排，关系下放和非下放事宜往往是需要谈判的问题。‍一些权限下放的政治权力实体，如英国退欧谈判中的渔业、食品、农业和环境的很多细节，他们都热切关注。

Pressed again on her negotiating strategy and the role of parliament in its formulation, Mrs May repeated in the Commons this afternoon that there would be no running commentary. This is a recipe for confrontation that could lead to a constitutional crisis. It will take a policy of transparency and a search for consensus to avert it. 

再次问到她的谈判策略及其制定阶段议会的作用时,梅姨可能重复今天下午在下议院的话，即没有实况报道。这样做会引发矛盾，甚至导致宪政危机。要避免危机就要保持政策透明度，寻求共识。

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