公司披露FY24Q4季度報告
（對應自然年24Q1），FY24Q4阿里實現收入2218.74億元，yoy+7%，高於彭博一致預期0.95%。經營利潤爲147.65億元，yoy-3%，經調整EBITA爲239.69億元，yoy-5%，主要由於對電商業務投入增加以及菜鳥員工留任激勵。淨利潤爲9.19億元，yoy-96%，主要由於淨利潤部分被阿里巴巴集團持有的上市公司股權投資按市值計價變動而產生淨虧損所抵消，去年同期爲淨收益。Non-GAAP淨利潤爲244.18億元，yoy-11%，歸屬於普通股股東的淨利潤爲32.70億元。股份回購：截至 2024 年 3 月 31 日的季度期間，阿里巴巴以48億美元的總價回購了總計5.24億股普通股。
FY24Q4E revenue up 7% yoy; net profit down 96% yoy on investment income
Key metrics:
Alibaba released unaudited FY24Q4E (Jan-Mar 2024) results recently:
•Revenue arrived at RMB221.87bn (up 7% yoy), 0.95% higher than the Bloomberg consensus estimate (BBG).
•Operating profit came to RMB14.77bn (down 3% yoy), while adjusted EBITA was RMB23.97bn (down 5% yoy), mainly due to heavier ecommerce investments and retention incentives for Cainiao employees.
•Net profit was RMB919m (down 96% yoy), mainly due to a net loss from Alibaba’s investments in listed companies on mark-to-market changes, vs a net profit in the same quarter a year ago.
•Non-GAAP net profit was RMB24.42bn (down 11% yoy), with net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders at RMB3.27bn.
•Share buybacks: Alibaba bought back 524m common shares for USD4.8bn in aggregate in the quarter.
分業務：
中國商業
收入932.16億元，低於彭博一致預期。經調整EBITDA達385.01億元，符合彭博一致預期。
雲業務
收入255.95億元，低於彭博一致預期1%，經調整EBITDA達14.32億元，低於彭博一致預期2.2%。
國際電商
收入274.48億元，高於彭博一致預期8%，經調整EBITA虧損40.85億元，低於彭博一致預期1.4%。
菜鳥集團
收入245.57億元，高於彭博一致預期13.2%，經調整EBITDA虧損13.42億元，遠低於彭博一致預期的盈利3.31億元。
FYQ4E revenue breakdown:
•China:
revenue from the domestic market amounted to RMB93.22bn, worse than BBG; adjusted EBITDA was RMB38.50bn, in line with BBG.
•Cloud:
revenue came to RMB25.60bn, 1% below BBG, while adjusted EBITDA was RMB1.43bn, 2.2% lower than BBG.
•International ecommerce:
posted revenue of RMB27.45bn, outperforming BBG by 8%, while adjusted EBITA loss was RMB4.09bn, 1.4% worse than BBG.
•Cainiao:
delivered revenue of RMB24.56bn, 13.2% better than BBG, but adjusted EBITDA loss at RMB1.34bn was far worse than BBG’s RMB331m profit.
中國商業：
FY24Q4收入932.16億元，yoy+4%，經調整EBITDA爲385.01億元，yoy-1%。高端消費者中，88VIP會員數量同比雙位數增長超3500萬。價格競爭力強、用戶體驗戰略逐步取得成效：1）購買人數、購買頻次強勁增長帶動GMV、訂單量實現同比雙位數增長。2）搜索和推薦帶來的強勁收入增長帶動CRM yoy+ 5%。總體變現率略微下降：淘寶GMV增長超天貓GMV增長，體現出對具有價格競爭力產品的需求擴大；新業務模式變現率較低。公司認爲基於目前中小企業商戶的付費率較低，且新的廣告工具尚未推出，隨着新廣告工具的推出，商戶ROI會逐步提高，商戶採用率、付費商戶的增量消費增加，因此總體變現率仍有提高空間。直銷收入246.9億人民幣，yoy-2%，中國商業批發49.5億人民幣，yoy+20%，主要由於付費商戶的增值服務收入增加。
China commerce: revenue up 4% yoy; adjusted EBITDA slipped 1% yoy
Financials:
Chinese commerce revenue rose 4% yoy to RMB93.22bn in FY24Q4E, but adjusted EBITDA dipped 1% yoy to RMB38.50bn. The number of high-end customers grew as 88VIP membership expanded by a double-digit rate yoy to more than 35m members. The company’s highly competitive pricing and user experience strategy yielded results:
•Buyers and purchasing frequency both grew strongly: GMV and order volumes both grew at double-digit rates yoy.
•Search recommendations drove up CRM by 5% yoy.
Monetization dip:
Taobao GMV growth exceeded Tmall GMV growth, reflecting demand expansion for price-competitive products, while monetization rates were low under the new business model. SME merchants have currently low payment ratios and new advertising tools had yet to be launched, so Alibaba believes that with the launch of new advertising tools, merchant ROI will gradually increase, which would raise merchant adoption rate and increase incremental consumption at paying merchants. This suggests total monetization rates have room to improve. Direct sales brought in RMB24.69bn revenue in FY24Q4E, down 2% yoy, while wholesale commerce contributed RMB4.95bn, up 20% yoy, mainly due to higher value-added service revenue from paying merchants.
雲業務：
雲業務收入255.95億元，yoy+3%，低於彭博一致預期1%，經調整EBITDA達14.32億元，yoy+45%，低於彭博一致預期2.2%。得益於AI相關產品的收入同比增長達3位數，其中主要來源於基礎模型公司、互聯網公司，以及如金融服務、汽車等不同行業客戶。源於此前阿里雲優化收入結構，通過減少利潤率低的項目式合約，專注於公共雲產品及服務採用量提升帶來高質量收入，核心公共雲產品，（彈性計算、數據庫、AI產品等）收入同比雙位數增長。爲了提高公共雲的採用率，在規模基礎設施和先進技術帶來的成本優勢下，對100多款公共雲產品降價，24年4月將對海外公共雲產品進行降價，進一步提升全球市場競爭力。5月9日阿里發佈開源1100億參數模型的通義千問2.5，對比上一版本在理解能力/邏輯推理/指令遵循/代碼能力方面分別提升9%/6%/19%/10%。公司表示，基於領先的產品組合、大量的基礎設施投資和行業合作伙伴戰略，阿里雲收入（不包括內部客戶）將在 2025 財年下半年恢復兩位數增長。
Cloud: revenue up 3% yoy and adjusted EBITDA up 45% yoy
The cloud business generated revenue of RMB25.60bn in FY24Q4E (up 3% yoy), 1% lower than BBG; adjusted EBITDA came to RMB1.43bn (up 45% yoy), 2.2% worse than BBG. AI products drove up revenue by a triple-digit yoy, mostly from basic-model companies and internet companies, as well as customers from a variety of industries, including financial services and automobiles. Alibaba’s tweaking of cloud revenue mix to generate better-quality revenue proved effective.
Public cloud services:
the company deemphasized low-profit project-based contracts to focus on wider adoption of its public cloud products and services. Revenue from core public cloud products (elastic computing, database, AI products) increased at a double-digit yoy. To increase public cloud adoption rates and leverage cost advantages of scale infrastructure and advanced technologies, Alibaba reduced the prices of more than 100 public cloud products. It also reduced the prices of public cloud products in the international market in April 2024 to raise global competitiveness.
Tongyi Qianwen 2.5:
Alibaba released version 2.5 of its open-source 110bn parameter model, Tongyi Qianwen, on 9 May, which performs 9% better in comprehension ability, 6% better in logical reasoning, 19% better in instruction compliance and 10% better in coding ability than the earlier version. Alibaba anticipates cloud revenue (excluding internal customers) will return to double-digit growth in FY25H2E, driven by its leading product portfolio, substantial infrastructure investments and industry partner strategy.
國際商業：
AIDC收入274.48億元，yoy+45%，高於彭博一致預期8%，訂單yoy+20%，經調整EBITA虧損40.85億元，低於彭博一致預期1.4%。零售平臺整體訂單同比增長20%，主要系跨境業務增長強勁，尤其速賣通Choice業務帶來的增長。具體源自3方面驅動：1）AE Choice驅動Aliexpress訂單強勁增長， 4 月AE Choice 訂單佔阿里速賣通總訂單的 70% 左右。速賣通與菜鳥跨境物流的協同效應增強Aliexpress的競爭力， 5天和10天配送完成率均同比翻倍。2）人工智能技術提升了效率和用戶體驗。目前已有 1.7 萬家中小企業訂閱了阿里巴巴的人工智能商業助手，同時人工智能優化產品的搜索量增長 37%。3）關鍵市場的持續增長。Trendyol持續錄得雙位數訂單增長，進一步拓展在海灣地區的跨境業務。Trendyol已成爲海灣地區下載量最多的電商App之一。Lazada每單虧損同比顯著收窄，源於變現率提升及優化運營。
International commerce: revenue up 45% yoy; retail orders increased 20% yoy
AIDC (Alibaba international digital commerce) generated revenue of RMB27.45bn in FY24Q4E, up 45% yoy, 8% higher than BBG; orders increased 20% yoy; adjusted EBITA loss was RMB4.09bn, 1.4% lower than BBG. Total orders on the retail platform increased 20% yoy, mainly due to strong growth in the cross-border business, particularly from AliExpress Choice. Three catalysts stood out:
•AE Choice drove strong growth of AliExpress orders: AE Choice orders accounted for about 70% of AliExpress orders in April. The synergy between AliExpress and Cainiao’s cross-border logistics enhanced AliExpress’s competitiveness, and the 5-day and 10-day delivery completion rates doubled yoy.
•AI technology improved efficiency and user experience: 17,000 SMEs subscribed to Alibaba’s AI business assistant and search volume for AI-optimized products increased 37%.
•Key markets maintained their growth rates: Trendyol continued to record double-digit order growth and expanded its cross-border business in the Gulf region, where Trendyol has become one of the most downloaded ecommerce apps. Lazada’s loss per order sharply narrowed yoy on higher monetization rates and tighter operations.
其他業務：
菜鳥收入245.57億元，yoy+30%，高於彭博一致預期13.2%.，經調整EBITDA虧損13.42億元.。主要是由於支持Aliexpress的跨境物流履約服務收入增加。基於更好地實現業務的戰略協同，包括菜鳥與Aliexpress的協同，加強其綜合端到端跨境物流能力，3月菜鳥撤回其在香港聯交所的首次公開發行。公司表示，本季度菜鳥將優先產品（如5日至10日達）覆蓋範圍新增四個國家，累計覆蓋14個國家。
Cainiao: revenue up 30% yoy; RMB1.34bn adjusted EBITDA loss better than BBG
Cainiao generated revenue of RMB24.56bn in FY24Q4E (up 30% yoy) and outperformed BBG by 13.2%. While adjusted EBITDA loss was RMB1.34bn, mainly due to increased revenue from cross-border logistics fulfillment services supporting AliExpress. Cainiao withdrew its initial public offering on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange in March in order to focus on driving strategic synergies in its businesses, including that between Cainiao and AliExpress, while strengthening its integrated end-to-end cross-border logistics capabilities. Alibaba said Cainiao added four new countries in its coverage of priority products in the quarter (e.g. 5 to 10-day delivery services) to reach a total of 14 countries.
