Abenomics provides a lesson for the rich world
An oft-repeated joke among economists has it that there are four kinds of economy: developed, developing, Argentina and Japan. The joke needs updating: while Argentina is still mired in its traditional problems, Japan is no longer such an unusual economy.
经济学家常开玩笑说，现在有四种经济体：发达国家、发展中国家、阿根廷和日本。这个笑话需要更新了：尽管阿根廷还陷在老问题的泥潭里，但日本再也不是一个特殊的经济体了。
This is partly thanks to the success of Shinzo Abe, now the longest serving Japanese prime minister, and his signature economic reforms known as Abenomics. Less positively, however, it is because other developed countries have become increasingly like Japan. This makes the experience of Abenomics both a salutary lesson and a warning for the rest of the rich world
这在一定程度上要归功于日本在任时间最长的首相安倍晋三，以及他著名的经济改革——安倍经济学。然而，安倍的成功也得益于“同行的衬托”：日本不再显得那么特殊，是因为其他的发达国家越来越像日本了。这让安倍经济学的经验对其他富有国家来说既是一个有益的教训，同时也是一个警告。
The 2010s should not be remembered as another lost decade for Japan. They represented a turning point for the world’s third-largest economy. The rate of nominal growth, which reflects changes in prices as well as changes in the size of the economy, has been higher since Mr Abe began his reforms. The ratio of government debt relative to national income has stabilised for the first time in decades.
对日本来说，2010年代不应被认为是另一个迷失的十年。这几年对这个世界第三大经济体来说是一个转折点。自首相安倍开始改革以来，反映价格变化和经济规模变化的名义增长率有所增长。政府债务相对于国民收入的比率几十年来首次趋向稳定。
Abenomics was based around the idea of “three arrows”: higher spending from the government, loose monetary policy from the Bank of Japan and a package of structural reforms to raise the long-run growth rate of the economy. The goal was to rescue the country from two decades of near stagnation and permanent deflation. Monetary and fiscal stimulus, launched when Mr Abe became prime minister, appeared to work quickly. Growth has been steady, if unspectacular.
安倍经济学基于“三支箭”思想：政府高支出，央行宽松的货币政策和一揽子结构性改革来提高长期的经济增长率。日本经济此前经历了二十年的近乎停滞和持续通缩，安倍经济学的目标就是让日本摆脱这种局面。安倍出任首相后推出的货币和财政刺激，似乎很快奏效。经济增长速度也许算不上惊人，但也堪称稳健。
The inflation target has never been hit and price growth remains stubbornly low. Yet Japan is no longer an outlier on this point: European and American central bankers have likewise struggled to hit their targets for price growth. Abenomics cannot be blamed for a global phenomenon. The rest of the world is equally struggling to cope with ageing populations and lower rates of productivity growth.
通膨目标从未实现，物价增长也一直很低。但在这一点上日本不再是一个例外了，欧美央行行长们同样苦苦挣扎在努力实现其物价上涨的目标。这是个全球现象，不是安倍经济学的失败。世界其他地区也同样在努力应对人口老龄化和生产率增长速度下降的问题。
The third arrow of Abenomics, structural reform, has been the greatest disappointment. Other than resurrecting the Trans-Pacific Partnership and striking a mini trade deal with the US that prevented a further loss of access, the record is mixed. The headline rate of female labour force participation is now higher than in the US yet many Japanese women complain about rampant discrimination that locks them out from higher-paying jobs.
安倍经济学的第三支箭，结构性改革，成为了最大的遗憾。除了重兴跨太平洋协定（TPP）和同美国达成小型贸易协议以防止进一步损失美国市场外，结构性改革的结果好坏参半。现在，日本女性劳动力的参与率高于美国了，但是许多日本女性还是抱怨普遍的性别歧视把她们拦在高薪工作外面。
A broader agenda of deregulation has never been as aggressive as investors wanted. Reforms of corporate governance, the labour market and healthcare have all disappointed. Again, Japan is no outlier here: many European economies have struggled to change the structures of the economy since the financial crisis; Barack Obama’s healthcare reform and Donald Trump’s tax reform have so far not delivered on what was promised.
放松管制这一更大的议程从未像投资者所希望的那样激进。公司治理，劳动力市场和医疗体制的改革都不尽人意。有必要再强调一次，日本不是个例：自金融危机以来，许多欧洲经济体改变经济结构的努力都没见到成效。奥巴马的医改和特朗普的税改迄今为止都没有兑现当初的承诺。
The Abenomics experience provides lessons for the rest of the world. The first is that central banks have more ammunition than is often thought. The Bank of Japan has gone much further than its peers in stimulating the economy: it pioneered tiered interest rates and including equities within an asset purchase programme. It is still the only major central bank to directly target long-term interest rates.
安倍经济学的经验给世界其他国家上了一课。首先是央行的“弹药”其实比以往人们认为的更充足。相比同行，日本央行在刺激经济方面的举措要猛烈许多：它率先采用分级利率，并将股票纳入资产采购计划。在全球主要经济体中，日本央行仍然是唯一直接锁定长期利率的央行。
The second lesson is the most positive. While the overall growth rate has been lacklustre, many other countries would be proud to achieve Japan’s growth rates for income per person. Living standards have continued to rise and the country has kept a lid on inequality. When Japan goes on show in the Olympics next year, the rich world will be looking on with a mix of admiration and sympathy.
第二课是最有正面意义的。尽管总体增长率并无起色，但日本的人均收入增长率仍然让很多国家羡慕不已。日本人的生活水平一直在提高，而且这个国家抑制了不平等现象。当明年日本奥运会时，世界上的富裕国家将向它投之以钦佩和同情。
