导读：周小川认为，贸易战本身对中国的影响不大，比贸易战更难量化的风险是金融市场的情绪（sentiment）。
中美贸易战酝酿大升级，中国人民银行前行长周小川在接受CNBC采访时表示，中美贸易战虽然不会对中国经济产生巨大影响，但（金融风险）引发的市场情绪难料。
周小川接受CNBC访问时称，用数学模型计算贸易战的负面影响，并不是很大，也不显着，对中国经济的影响不到半个百分点。
他指出，最糟不过是中国不再向美国市场出口5000亿美元商品，然后再看可以多快的将这些外销产品，多元输往其他国家（
re-route goods to other countries
），他认为中国的动作可以很快。
不过，周小川警告称，经济模型无法加计中国內部市场情绪的快速变化。就像十年前雷曼兄弟事件的发生，突然出现恐慌和危机蔓延，所以这类事情不容易分析。他又补充称，以每年经济增长6%加上浮动滙率，中国经济有能力抵御外部冲击。
最糟糕的情况是，中国不再向美国市场出口价值5000亿美元的货物，然后再取决于你能以多快的速度将这些货物出口至其他国家。事实上，我认为中国可以迅速采取行动。”不过，这位中国央行前行长警告称，经济模型不能影响中国国内情绪的快速转变。
“我们看到了当年雷曼兄弟事件的发生。市场突然出现了恐慌和传染,
所以这种事情不是很容易分析的。”他表示，中国经济以每年6%的速度增长，并实行浮动汇率制，所以中国经济完全有能力承受外部冲击。周说，尽管贸易战是股市暴跌的“主要原因”，但也有一些国内因素在起作用。
“中国经济正面临着战略上的转变，从快速城镇化，向“新常态”转变，这将推动国有部门多元化改革，”周说。“此外，还有很多上市公司，造成了污染，投资者现在对这些股票不太友好。
The trade war's impact on China will be insignificant, former central bank governor says
The former PBOC governor told CNBC that Trump's trade tariffs won't cripple China's growing economy.
Zhou Xiaochuan said China would look to quickly reroute goods to other countries if the United States became untenable.
President Donald Trump has said he's ready to erect tariffs on all $506 billion worth of Chinese imports to the U.S.
The trade war between Washington and Beijing won't have a huge effect on the Chinese economy, the formerPeople's Bank of China(PBOC) governor Zhou Xiaochuan told CNBC Friday.
"We used a mathematical model to calculate the negative impact of the trade war. It is not very large, it is not significant. It is less than half a percent (of an) impact to the Chinese economy," Zhou told CNBC's Steve Sedgwick at the Ambrosetti Forum on the shores of Lake Como in Italy.
President Donald Trump has said he's ready to erect tariffs on all $506 billion worth of Chinese imports to the U.S. So far, Washington has slapped duties on $50 billion worth of Chinese goods, and a fresh $200 billion more is threatened this month. China can't match the tariff threats because of the mismatch in trade.
Zhou said China's response would be to quickly re-route goods to other countries and this is what the PBOC has also advised President Xi Jinping.
"The worst case scenario is that China is no longer going to export $500 billion of goods to the U.S. market and then its dependent how quickly you can diversify those export goods to the other countries. Actually I think China could act quickly," Zhou added.
The former PBOC governor warned however that economic modelling could not factor in a quick shift in the mood within China.
"We saw when the Lehman Brothers event happened. There was sudden panic and contagion so this kind of thing is not very easy to analyze," he said, before adding that with economic growth of 6 percent a year and a floating exchange rate, the Chinese economy was well placed to withstand external shocks.
Chinese stocks on the country's CSI 300 index have fallen 13 percent since the United States unveiled its tariff targets in mid-June. In contrast, the U.S. S&P 500 index has risen 4 percent.
Zhou said that while the trade war was a "major reason" for the stock slump, there was also some domestic reasons at play.
"The Chinese economy is facing a change of strategy from a fast urbanization process to a new form that needs to diversify from various state sectors," Zhou said. "Also there is a lot of listed companies, that created pollution and investors are (now) not so friendly to these stocks."
