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粉筆: 加碼AI夯實新質生產力

天风国际  · 公众号  ·  · 2024-09-19 21:11

正文

Fenbi

(2469 HK)


加碼AI夯實新質生產力


24H1E takeaways: adjusted net profit up 21% as AI tools drive up efficiency with better learning and teaching quality


BUY (maintain)


投資要點/Investment Thesis

投資要點/Investment Thesis

公司發佈半年度報告。 24H1收入16.30億,同比-3.08%,調後淨利3.5億,同比+21%。收入減少系2024年上半年事業單位招錄聯考筆試與省級公務員聯考筆試撞期,導致公司事業單位招錄考試培訓和教材及輔導資料銷量均下降。截至24H1粉筆僱員共7564人,同比+5%;平均月活920萬人,同比持平。


24H1E revenue down 3% but adjusted net profit up 21% to RMB350m

Key metrics: Fenbi’s unaudited 24H1E results release shows revenue at RMB1.63bn, down 3.08% yoy, while adjusted net profit was RMB350m, up 21% yoy.


Factors: revenue fell a tad below that in 23H1 due to a clash between the career recruitment and provincial civil servants joint entrance written exams, which lowered sales of career recruitment exam prep training, teaching and counseling materials as well as tutorials.


分服務看,公司24H1培訓服務收入13.79億 (佔比84.6%),同比-3.1%;其中在線學習產品0.65億,大班培訓課程2.66億,小班培訓課程10.26億,其他培訓課程收入0.23億。


圖書銷售收入2.52億(佔比15.4%),同比-3.0%。


Revenue breakdown: book sales contributed RMB252m revenue in H1E (15.4% of the total), down 3.0% yoy. Meanwhile, training services generated RMB1.38bn (84.6% of the total), down 3.1% yoy, comprising:

•e-learning products: RMB65m

•Large-class training: RMB266m

•Small-class training: RMB1.03bn

•Others: RMB23m.


24H1公司毛利率54.2%,同比+3.3pct。 其中培訓服務毛利率57.9%,同比+4.0pct,系僱員福利開支減少及運營效率提升;24H1培訓服務成本5.80億,同比-11.6%,主要是由於人工智能及其他在線技術令公司的授課效率提升以及師資花紅減少,導致僱員福利開支減少。圖書銷售毛利率爲33.6%,同比-0.8pct。


24H1公司管理費率12.11%,同比-6.90pct;銷售費率19.65%,同比+1.56pct;研發費用1.08億,同比-24.4%,研發費率6.64%,同比-1.87pct。


24H1公司淨利率17.03%,同比+12.19pct。


Profitability:

•Gross margins: total gross margin was 54.2% in H1E, up 3.3ppt yoy: training services gross margin expanded 4.0ppt yoy to 57.9% on lower employee benefit expenses and better operational efficiency; while book sales gross margin fell 0.8ppt yoy to 33.6%.

•Net margin arrived at 17.03%, up 12.19ppt yoy, in 24H1E.

•Expenses:

-Training service expenses came to RMB580m in H1E, 11.6% lower yoy, as teaching efficiency improved with the help of artificial intelligence and other online technologies, as well as lower teacher bonuses and thus lower employee welfare expenses.

-R&D expenses were RMB108m, down 24.4% yoy.

•Expense ratios: administrative expense ratio was 12.11%, down 6.90ppt yoy; sales expense ratio was 19.65%, up 1.56ppt yoy; and R&D expense ratio was 6.64%, down 1.87ppt yoy.


藉助AI深度提升運營效率

2024H1粉筆研發開支1.1億;6月粉筆AI老師算法通過國家網信辦第六批深度合成服務算法備案。人效持續優化:2021年2月,一位粉筆精品班輔導老師同期可以服務40人左右,目前一位老師同期最高可服務150人,效率提升275%。


用戶體驗不斷提升:在預測分功能輔助下,2022年省聯考行測到2024年省聯考行測,精品全程班用戶對應提分漲幅可以達到40%。


爲下半年業績增長提前鎖定發展空間:2024年粉筆推動AI大模型應用落地,在業界率先發布AI老師產品,滿足用戶多樣化的學習需求,與用戶第一時間共享創新發展成果。


Leveraging AI tools and aids to improve operational efficiency

Teacher LLM: not stinting on R&D expenses (RMB108m in H1), the company filed with the Cyberspace Administration of China its sixth batch of deep synthesis service algorithms in June 2024 for Fenbi AI Teacher, its proprietary large language model.


Higher labor efficiency: AI technologies have helped increase teaching efficiency: a class tutor is currently able to serve up to 150 learners simultaneously, vs just 40 learners in February 2021, an efficiency improvement of 275%.


Learner performance upgrades: the predictive scoring functionality helped students in premium full-time courses improve their practice tests scores from the 2022 to 2024 provincial joint entrance exams by as much as 40%.


H2E performance growth: the company has pushed the use of its AI LLM in 2024. It was the first in the industry to roll out its AI Teacher LLM to meet learners’ diverse needs and the first to share the outcome of its innovation and development with users.


OMO實現獨特競爭優勢,小班課程產品品牌化

公司沿循整合方法開發出一套能夠產生重大協同效應的全面職業考試培訓產品及服務組合,並且提供全渠道培訓服務。得益於公司穩固的在線業務及通過創新的在線線下相結合模式實現的巨大協同效應,公司得以經營可擴展業務。


公司是首家誕生於互聯網、整合線下資源的招錄類考試培訓服務供應商,在全渠道實現規模經濟以創造獨特的競爭優勢。


公司採取以在線教學或通過在線和線下融合模式爲主導的小班培訓課程,向學員提供個性化的培訓服務。通過互聯網的方式,公司得以對師資質量和教學質量進行有效的把控,用穩定的教學質量驅動各個班級之間穩定一致的教學成果,從而逐步實現課程產品的品牌化。


依託自主研發技術和海量的學習行爲數據,公司的在線學習系統可以實現學習軌跡的數據全紀錄與學生薄弱點的實時反饋,大幅提高老師授課效率。


OMO business model adds unique advantage; branded small-class courses

OMO: Fenbi’s comprehensive portfolio of vocational exam training products and services generate substantial synergies and provides omnichannel training services. It has been able to scale its business by leveraging a strong online market presence and the robust synergies of its online-merge-offline (OMO) business model.


Scale edge: Fenbi is the first recruitment exam training service provider birthed online to integrate offline resources. It has achieved economies of scale across all channels and this gives it a unique competitive advantage.


Personalized coaching: the company provides personalized coaching to students in small-class courses online or via OMO formats. It manages teaching and teacher quality online to ensure stable and consistent teaching outcomes across the classes, building up the branding of its course products.


Proprietary R&D: utilizing its proprietary technologies and massive data on learning behavior, Fenbi’s online learning system enables full data records of learning progress and real-time feedback on students’ weak areas, which greatly facilitates teachers’ teaching efficiency.



投資建議/Investment Ideas



維持盈利預測,維持“買入”評級

我們預計24-26年公司收入分別爲31.52億人民幣、35.01億人民幣、39.01億人民幣,調後淨利分別爲5.51億人民幣、6.30億人民幣、7.30億人民幣,EPS分別爲0.25人民幣/股、0.28人民幣/股、0.33人民幣/股,對應PE分別爲10/9/7x。


Valuation and risks

We forecast revenue will arrive at RMB3.15bn/3.50bn/3.90bn in 2024/25/26E, and adjusted net profit at RMB551m/630m/ 730m, implying EPS of RMB0.25/0.28/0.33 and PE of 10x/9x/7x. We maintain our BUY rating.


風險提示: 匯率波動、招生不及預期、市場競爭激烈等風險。


Risks include: FX volatility; weaker-than-expected enrollments; and intensifying competition.


Email: [email protected]

TFI research report website:

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