【经济学人】计算回购和股息，预测股票收益 |2017.6.25|总第920期

In a buy-back, investors receive cash for a proportion of their holdings. A new paper* in the Financial Analysts Journal argues that adding this to dividend receipts to calculate a total payout yield gives a better estimate of future returns than the dividend yield alone. It also reveals a much better match between stockmarket performance and overall economic growth.

在回购中，投资者根据自己的持股比例获得现金收益。《金融分析师期刊》（Financial Analysts Journal）的一篇新论文认为，将股票回购加到股息单据上来计算总股利收益率，相比于单独地估算股息率，能够更好的估算出未来收益。这也揭示了股市表现与整体经济增长之间更好的匹配关系。

Using data going back to 1871, the authors find that the average dividend yield has been 4.5% and the total payout yield 4.89%. Since 1970 the dividend yield has dropped to 3.03%, but the total payout yield has averaged 4.26%. Looked at on that basis, the overall income return from shares has been not that far below historical levels.

把数据追溯到1871年，研究者发现当时的平均股息率为4.5%，总股利收益率为4.89%。从1970年以来，股息率已经跌到3.03%，但是总股利收益率平均为4.26%。从这个基础来看，整体股票收益还未远低于历史水平。

The return from shares can be broken down into three components: the initial income yield; growth in the income stream; and any change in valuation. (If shares become more expensive, the yield will fall. Say the dividend is $6 and the share price is $100, the initial yield will be 6%. If the shares rise to $120, the yield will fall to 5% but the investors will have made a capital gain.)

股票收益可以被分解成三个组成部分：初始收益、收益的增长和估值的变化。（股价越高，初始收益率就会越低。也就是说股息是6美元，股价为100美元，初始收益率就是6%。如果股价上升到120美元，初始收益率就会跌到5%，但投资者这时已经获得资本收益了）

Over the long run, changes in valuation levels do not make much difference to the return. What has driven stockmarket returns in recent decades is that total payouts have grown faster than before. The growth rate since 1871 has been 2.05%; since 1970, it has been 3.44%. That is probably because of strong corporate profits, which recently hit a post-1945 high as a proportion of America’s GDP.

长期来看，估值水平的变动不会对收益产生太大的影响。最近几十年，推动股市收益的是总股息远超以往的飞速增长。到1871以来，总股息增长率已经为2.05%，1970年以来，增长率达3.44%。这可能是企业强劲的利润导致的，并且最近在美国GDP所占比例中达到1945年后的新高。

An obvious apparent difference between dividends and buy-backs is that every shareholder gets the dividend but not all of them tend to take part in a buy-back. But theory suggests investors should gain from a share buy-back even if they do not take part. The buy-back will reduce the number of shares in issue, giving existing investors a proportionately larger claim on the profits and assets of the company.

股息与回购的明显区别是每个持股人都会得到分红，但并不是所有的持股人都打算参与回购。从理论上讲，投资者即使不参与，也会从股票回购中获利。回购将会减少股票发行量，从而让现有的投资者对公司利润和资产方面有更大的索求权。