【经济学人】计算回购和股息，预测股票收益 |2017.6.25|总第920期

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WHAT is the point of buying shares? Ultimately investors must hope that the cash they receive from the company will offer an attractive long-term return.

买股票的精髓是什么？最终投资者必须期望他们从企业获得的现金能够提供有吸引力的长期回报。 

Over the long run, reinvested dividends rather than capital gains have comprised the vast bulk of returns. But since the 1980s American firms have increasingly used share buy-backs, which have tax advantages for some investors. Buy-backs have been higher than dividend payments in eight of the past ten years.

从长期来看，相对于资本收益，股息再投资可以带来大量的回报。但是二十世纪八十年代以来，美国企业却越来越多地使用股票回购，因为对于一些投资者来说股票回购有着税收优势。在过去十年中，有八年回购一直高于股息支付。

In a buy-back, investors receive cash for a proportion of their holdings. A new paper* in the Financial Analysts Journal argues that adding this to dividend receipts to calculate a total payout yield gives a better estimate of future returns than the dividend yield alone. It also reveals a much better match between stockmarket performance and overall economic growth.

在回购中，投资者根据自己的持股比例获得现金收益。《金融分析师期刊》（Financial Analysts Journal）的一篇新论文认为，将股票回购加到股息单据上来计算总股利收益率，相比于单独地估算股息率，能够更好的估算出未来收益。这也揭示了股市表现与整体经济增长之间更好的匹配关系。

Using data going back to 1871, the authors find that the average dividend yield has been 4.5% and the total payout yield 4.89%. Since 1970 the dividend yield has dropped to 3.03%, but the total payout yield has averaged 4.26%. Looked at on that basis, the overall income return from shares has been not that far below historical levels.

把数据追溯到1871年，研究者发现当时的平均股息率为4.5%，总股利收益率为4.89%。从1970年以来，股息率已经跌到3.03%，但是总股利收益率平均为4.26%。从这个基础来看，整体股票收益还未远低于历史水平。

The return from shares can be broken down into three components: the initial income yield; growth in the income stream; and any change in valuation. (If shares become more expensive, the yield will fall. Say the dividend is $6 and the share price is $100, the initial yield will be 6%. If the shares rise to $120, the yield will fall to 5% but the investors will have made a capital gain.)

股票收益可以被分解成三个组成部分：初始收益、收益的增长和估值的变化。（股价越高，初始收益率就会越低。也就是说股息是6美元，股价为100美元，初始收益率就是6%。如果股价上升到120美元，初始收益率就会跌到5%，但投资者这时已经获得资本收益了）

Over the long run, changes in valuation levels do not make much difference to the return. What has driven stockmarket returns in recent decades is that total payouts have grown faster than before. The growth rate since 1871 has been 2.05%; since 1970, it has been 3.44%. That is probably because of strong corporate profits, which recently hit a post-1945 high as a proportion of America’s GDP.

长期来看，估值水平的变动不会对收益产生太大的影响。最近几十年，推动股市收益的是总股息远超以往的飞速增长。到1871以来，总股息增长率已经为2.05%，1970年以来，增长率达3.44%。这可能是企业强劲的利润导致的，并且最近在美国GDP所占比例中达到1945年后的新高。

An obvious apparent difference between dividends and buy-backs is that every shareholder gets the dividend but not all of them tend to take part in a buy-back. But theory suggests investors should gain from a share buy-back even if they do not take part. The buy-back will reduce the number of shares in issue, giving existing investors a proportionately larger claim on the profits and assets of the company.

股息与回购的明显区别是每个持股人都会得到分红，但并不是所有的持股人都打算参与回购。从理论上讲，投资者即使不参与，也会从股票回购中获利。回购将会减少股票发行量，从而让现有的投资者对公司利润和资产方面有更大的索求权。 

Over time, buy-backs are offset by the shares companies issue to make acquisitions and honour executive share-option schemes. In the half century since 1970 new share issuance has exceeded buy-backs. But in the ten years to 2014, on average, buy-backs have predominated.

一段时间后，回购股份会被企业发行的用来收购和承兑执行股票期权计划的股票所抵消。在1970年之后的半个世纪中，新股发行量已经超过了回购量。但是截止到2014年的这十年中，平均来说，回购已经占据了主导地位。

• acquisition     n.(企业的)合并、兼并、并购

• Honour   vt.   尊敬; 以…为荣; [金融] 承兑，兑现

The authors also experiment with using the total payout yield as a yardstick of whether stocks are dear or cheap. By averaging the yield over ten years, they work out the cyclically-adjusted total yield (CATY) and compare it with the cyclically-adjusted price-earnings ratio (CAPE), which averages corporate profits. They find that CATY is at least as good as CAPE in predicting market movements.

研究者做了个实验，以总股息收益率作为标准，衡量股票价格是否便宜。他们通过将十多年的收益率平均化计算，得出了周期调整总收益率（CATY ），并将其与表示企业平均利润的周期调整市盈率（CAPE）相比较，发现CATY至少和CAPE一样可以很好的预测市场走势。

• Yardstick  n.衡量标准；评判尺度；准绳

As for the link with economic growth, it is often hard to find a short-term correlation between this and stockmarket performance, which tends to be much more volatile. But the authors found that, over the very long run, growth in the aggregate payout from American equities has matched that of the country’s GDP (see chart), and payout-per-share growth has matched that of GDP per head.

至于股市表现与经济增长之间的联系，人们很难找出其中的短期相关性，因为股市波动越来越大。但是研究者发现，长期来看，美国股票的总股息增长已经与国家GDP 的增长相吻合（见表），每股股息增长也与人均GDP增长相当。

• Aggregate   adj. 总数的，总计的; 聚合的;

There is no guarantee that this relationship will continue. Payouts lagged a long way behind GDP in the second half of the 20th century, and have only caught up because of the surge in buy-backs. And the stockmarket is much more international than it used to be; almost half the revenues of S&P 500 companies come from outside America.

没有人可以保证这种关系是否将会继续保持。到二十世纪下半页，美国股息增长还远远落后于GDP，现在只是由于回购的激增才赶了上来。股市比以往更加国际化，因为标准普尔500指数企业的收入几乎一半来自于美国国外。 

Focusing on total payouts allows the authors to be a bit more optimistic in their forecasts of future returns than the traditional dividend-based approach would suggest. Historically, total payouts have grown by around 1.67% per year, compared with 1.46% for dividends alone. Combine that with the current payout yield and you get an expected future real return of 5.1%, compared with just 3.6% if dividends alone are used. Whether even that return, however, would be enough to meet defined-benefit pension promises, particularly those made to their workers by state and local governments in America, is another question.（读者试译句）

关注股票总派息会使研究者对于未来收益的预测比传统的基于股息的预测方法更乐观。从历史上看，相比于只增长了1.46%的股息，总派息每年大约增长1.67%。如果把总派息与当前的股息收益相结合进行估算，你将会获得5.1%的预期实际收益率，而如果只考虑股息，那就只有3.6%的预期实际收益率了。（期待您的翻译，明天会有针对这句话的长难句解析哟~）

翻译 ▍iron ；龙叔

审核 ▍竞风之翼

图文编辑 ▍leone

责任编辑 ▍毛毛