2020年将注定是不平凡的一年，无论回首过去和展望未来。新冠疫情肆虐全球，其持续发作更是超出众人预判，对世界的巨大影响正在显现，如社会生活、全球经济、地缘政治、国家交往等诸多方面产生变局，进而引发经济萎缩，贸易受阻，地缘紧张，宗教分争，民粹高涨以及美选起伏等一系列反常现象，也加剧了包括大宗商品在内的全球资本市场的大幅波动。
面对疫情大考，各国答题不一，中国抗疫成绩世界公认，经济得以稳定，势必为全球资本在区域间经济体的各类资产偏好带来重新评估与投资机会。近期提出“十四五规划”纲要，更是以大国自信的姿态展望未来，坚持合作共赢、力促创新发展等战略导向，应对百年未有之大变局。
本期报告《无平不陂,无往不复》寓意凡事非平坦而不临艰险、没有始终向前而不遇反复，以此视角去观察经济状况和行业运营，看到曲折中孕育机会，在大类资产配置的风险偏好变化中努力做到战略观局和战术应对。
本期秋季策略报告延续上期春季策略报告，以中粮期货研究院的CME 2.0方法论，突出分析今后半年间的市场状况和变化，强调了预期偏差下寻求投资机会、也是我们新版CME体系所出现的亮点。配有CME2.0版策略地图和期值分级，覆盖所研究的相关品种和强弱对比，便于放眼半年策略布局。同时，报告的标题与摘要也以中英文两个版本呈现，助力中粮期货为国际投资机构服务。
Regardlessof looking back at the past and looking forward to the future, 2020 will bedestined to be an extraordinary year.TheCOVID-19 pandemic has raged around the world, and its continued outbreak isbeyond everyone’s expectations. Its huge impact on the world is emerging, suchas changes in social life, global economy, geopolitics, and national diplomacy,which caused a series of abnormal phenomena such as economic shrinkage, tradebarriers, geopolitics tensions, religious divisions, populism and the ups anddowns of the US elections, and have also increased the volatility of globalcapital markets including commodities.
In theface of the epidemic test, different countries have answered differentquestions. China's anti-epidemic performance is recognized worldwide, and theeconomy is stabilized. This will certainly bring reassessment and investmentopportunities for global capital's various asset preferences in inter-regionaleconomies. Recently we proposed "14th Five-Year Plan" outlines witha confident attitude of a major country in future, adheres to the strategicorientation of win-win cooperation and promotes innovation and development, forresponds to major changes unseen in this century.
This report "Cycling through Peaks and Valleys" implies that nothing is flatwithout danger, or moving forward without repetition. From this perspective, wecan observe economic conditions and industry operations and see opportunities derivedfrom setbacks, strive to achieve a strategic outlook and tactical response tochanges in risk appetite for the allocation of major assets.
This autumn strategy report continues the previous spring report, using the CME 2.0methodology of the COFCO Futures Research to analyze the market conditions andchanges in the next six months, and emphasizes that the search for investment opportunities under expected deviations is also the highlight of our new version of the CME system. This report is equipped with CME2.0 version strategymap and expected value classification, covering the relevant varieties and thecomparison of strengths and weaknesses, making it easy to make strategy in halfof a year. At the same time, the title and abstract of the report are alsopresented in both Chinese and English versions, helping COFCO Futures to serve international investment institutions.
