事件：
英偉達3QFY25營收350.8億美元，同比增長94%，環比增長17%，高於公司此前325億美元的指引，超出彭博一致預期332.5億美元5.5%。毛利率：3QFY25 Non-GAAP毛利率為75%，同比持平，環比下降0.7ppts; Non-GAAP凈利潤200.1億美元，同比增長100%，環比增長18%，超越彭博一致預期185.6億美元8%; 非GAAP每股收益為0.81美元，環比增長19%，同比增長103%。
雲廠商需求強勁，B系列已全面投產。
數據中心營收308億美元，環比增長17%，同比增長112%。公司表示Hopper產品需求強勁，H200的銷售額環比顯著增加，達到數十億美元級別。雲廠商需求依舊強勁，佔據數據中心銷售收入的約一半，同比收入翻倍增長。Blackwell已進入全面生產階段，並成功完成大規模產品切換。第三季度，公司向客戶交付了13,000個GPU樣品，包括首批Blackwell DGX工程樣品，其中一個已提供給OpenAI。
業績指引：
展望2025財年第四季度，公司預計總收入為375億美元，上下浮動2%; 公司表示：基於四季度Hopper的持續需求和Blackwell產品的初步量產，有信心超越之前對Blackwell several billions的收入預測。公司預計GAAP和非GAAP毛利率分別為 73%和73.5%，上下浮動50個基點。公司預計GAAP和非GAAP運營費用為48億美元和34億美元。預計稅率在16.5%左右。
業務動態：
1）Blackwell系列需求強勁，公司大幅拓張產能。
公司表示Blackwell收入四季度會比之前指引的several billions更好，並且公司正在認為明年多個季度需求繼續大於供給，在毛利率上，公司認為在Blackwell初期毛利率會接近70%出頭（low-70s），後續會回到75%左右（mid-70s）。
2）Scaling Law未見放緩跡象。
公司表示僅依賴預訓練擴展是不夠的，除此之外還有后訓練擴展Post-Training Scaling和Inference Time，三種Scaling Law同步推進。我們認為Scaling Law在預訓練、后訓練到推理的需求快速增長，有望共同推動基礎設施的擴展需求，算力缺口依然顯著。
3）網路業務收入同比增長20%，環比收入略有下降。
公司表示預計在第四季度網路業務會實現環比增長。CSPs和超級計算中心正在採用NVIDIA InfiniBand平台。NVIDIA Spectrum-X乙太網在AI應用中的收入同比增長超過3倍，未來的業務管道也在不斷擴展，多家CSP和消費互聯網公司正在規劃大規模集群部署。我們認為這對乙太網的市佔率或有積極指示意義。
4）企業AI收入增長超2倍。
公司表示Accenture和Deloitte等行業領導者正將NVIDIA AI技術引入全球企業。預計NVIDIA AI Enterprise全年收入將同比增長2倍以上。
5）中國的數據中心收入因出口合規產品交付而環比增長。
雖然數據中心收入佔比仍遠低於出口管制之前的水準，但公司預計中國市場的競爭將保持激烈，同時將繼續遵守出口管制法規，並努力服務於客戶。
Nvidia delivered a strong fiscal third quarter as Hopper and Blackwell GPU demand surged on data center orders, having bumped up Blackwell production capacity in anticipation revenue would exceed guidance. It is expecting full-year AI enterprise revenue will double. We maintain BUY.
The gist: BUY
· FYQ3E record revenue of USD35.08bn beat expectations
· Next-gen Blackwell GPU line-up for gen-AI in full production
· Data center revenue up 112% yoy in FYQ3E on cloud vendor demand
· Nvidia sees Blackwell gross margin potentially expanding to about 75%
FY25Q3E results: revenue up 94% yoy; non-GAAP net profit up 100% yoy
Key metrics:
Nvidia released unaudited results for FY25Q3E (the quarter ended 27 Oct 2024), with both revenue and profit exceeding expectations:
·
Revenue rose to USD35.08bn (up 94% yoy and 17% qoq), above the company’s guidance of USD32.5bn and exceeding the Bloomberg consensus estimate (BBG) of USD33.25bn by 5.5%.
·
Non-GAAP gross margin came in at 75% (flat yoy and down 0.7ppt qoq).
·
Non-GAAP net profit increased to USD20.01bn (up 100% yoy and 18% qoq), exceeding BBG’s USD18.56bn by 8%.
·
Non-GAAP earnings per share came to USD0.81 (up 103% yoy and 19% qoq).
Key drivers:
cloud vendor demand; Blackwell reaches full production
· Data centers:
revenue from data centers amounted to USD30.8bn in the quarter (up 112% yoy and 17% qoq). The company said demand for Hopper architecture products remained sturdy as sales of H200 GPUs spiked qoq to the multibillion level.
· Cloud vendors:
demand from cloud vendors in particular stayed strong and their revenue doubled yoy to account for about half of Nvidia’s data center sales.
· Blackwell switchover:
the switchover to the next-gen Blackwell GPUs reached full production.
FYQ4E guidance: Blackwell likely to exceed multibillion-level guidance
·
Revenue at USD37.5bn, plus or minus 2%: the company expressed confidence Blackwell product revenue will exceed the multibillion-level guidance in FYQ4E on steady demand for Hopper products and the initial Blackwell mass production.
·
GAAP/non-GAAP gross margins at 73/73.5%, plus or minus 50bp.
·
GAAP/non-GAAP operating expenses at USD 4.8bn/3.4bn.
·
Tax rate at approximately 16.5%.
FYQ3E business dynamics: demand, production and revenues on the rise
Blackwell GPUs:
·
Full production:
Nvidia took its Hopper successor, the next-gen Blackwell architecture for generative artificial intelligence (gen-AI) to full production, successfully completing an extensive product switchover. In FY25Q3, the company shipped 13,000 Blackwell samples to customers, including the first Blackwell DGX engineering samples, one of which was provided to OpenAI.
· Outlook:
demand has been strong for the B-series GPUs and Nvidia greatly expanded Blackwell production capacity. The company expects revenue will exceed guidance this year and that demand next year will continue to exceed supply over several quarters. It sees Blackwell gross margin potentially rising from the low-70-something percent to the mid-70s.
AI scaling dynamics:
early AI scaling laws have it that feeding more data into larger language models – requiring more computing power – makes systems smarter. However, Nvidia believes just pre-training – a fundamental step in building up LLMs – cannot sustain their expansion. Companies will need new techniques and strategies to meet new challenges as paradigms evolve. Nvidia believes post-training scaling plays a key role, including inference scaling (also called test-time scaling). Computing power demand driving inference training could mount swiftly as new AI applications emerge. We believe simultaneous three-way rapid demand growth in pre-training, post-training and inference scaling will drive infrastructure expansion, which implies far more computing power will be required to meet the current substantial shortfall.
Networking solutions:
revenue rose 20% yoy but dipped qoq in FYQ3E; and the company expects FYQ4E will post qoq growth. Cloud service providers (CSP) and supercomputing centers are adopting the Nvidia InfiniBand platform and revenue from Nvidia Spectrum-X ethernet products used in AI applications grew more than 3x yoy. The business pipeline continues to expand as multiple CSPs and consumer internet companies plan large-scale cluster deployments. We are bullish about the company’s ethernet market share.
Enterprise AI business:
Nvidia expects full-year revenue will more than double yoy, noting that global industry leaders such as Accenture and Deloitte are bringing its AI technology to enterprises worldwide.
China data centers:
revenue increased qoq on deliveries of export-compliant products. Revenue contribution from this business is far lower than it was before the US imposed new export restrictions on some high-end AI chips, but the company expects competition in the Chinese market will remain intense. It will continue to comply with export regulations while working to serve customer needs.
