Finance and economics | Free exchange
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Finance and economics | Free exchange
财经板块|自由交流
Daniel Kahneman was a master of teasing questions
丹尼尔·卡尼曼 (Daniel Kahneman) 是位难题提问大师
注释：
1.Daniel Kahneman (丹尼尔·卡尼曼)1934年3月5日—2024年3月27日），生于英国托管巴勒斯坦特拉维夫，以色列裔美国认知心理学家，提出了著名的前景理论（Prospect Theory）。由于在展望理论的贡献，获得2002年诺贝尔经济学奖。出版畅销书《思考，快与慢》、《噪声》。
Source:
https://zh.wikipedia.org/zh-cn/%E4%B8%B9%E5%B0%BC%E5%B0%94%C2%B7%E5%8D%A1%E5%B0%BC%E6%9B%BC
2.Teasing一词在此处不为取笑、嘲笑，而是来源于Brain teasing questions脑力题、脑筋急转弯（又叫brain teaser)，因此Teasing在文中多为引起思考、挑战思维的意思，词典中Tease也有 to disentangle and lay parallel by combing or carding梳理之意
Source：https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/teasing
延伸阅读：
1.《诺奖得主丹尼尔·卡尼曼：如何获得幸福？》
Source: https://swarma.org/?p=49285
2.《【逝者】丹尼尔·卡尼曼：行为经济学之父，突破边界的挑战者》
Source: https://m.jiemian.com/article/10977266.html
How a psychologist transformed economics
一位心理学家是如何改变经济学的
Winners of theNobel prize in economics tend to sprinkle their papers with equations. Daniel Kahneman, who died on March 27th, populated his best-known work with characters and conundrums. Early readers encountered a schoolchild with an iq of 150 in a city where the average was 100. Later they pondered the unfortunate Mr Tees, who arrived at the airport 30 minutes after his flight’s scheduled departure, and must have felt even worse when he discovered the plane had left 25 minutes late. In the 1970s readers had to evaluate ways to fight a disease that threatened to kill 600 people. In 1983 they were asked to guess the job of Linda, an outspoken, single 31-year-old philosophy graduate.
诺贝尔经济学奖获得者的论文中往往充斥着方程式，而于3月27日逝世的丹尼尔·卡尼曼 (Daniel Kahneman) 的著作中却充满了各种人物和难题。早期读者遇到一个智商为150的学生，生活在一个平均智商为100的城市里。后来，他们思量着不幸的蒂斯先生（Mr Tees）——在航班原定起飞时间30分钟后到达机场，却发现航班延误了25分钟才起飞，那时他的心情一定更糟糕。20世纪70年代，读者必须权衡对抗一个危及600人生命的疾病的不同方案。1983年，读者被要求猜测琳达 (Linda) 的工作，她芳龄31，单身率直，是位哲学毕业生。
延伸阅读：
1.《判断与决策：代表性启发：成功=天赋+运气》
http://www.360doc.com/content/21/0106/14/73258713_955488985.shtml
注释：
1.Sprinkle：to scatter in drops or particles v.撒；散置
Source: https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/sprinkle
1.conundrums：n. an intricate and difficult problem 猜不透的难题
Source: https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/conundrums
Kahneman used such vignettes to expose the seductive mental shortcuts that can warp people’s thoughts and decisions. Many people, for example, think it more likely that Linda is a feminist bank-teller than a bank-teller of any kind. Presented with two responses to the disease, most choose one that saves 200 people for certain, over a chancier alternative that has a one-third chance of saving everyone and a two-thirds chance of saving no one. But if the choice is reframed, the decision is often different. Choose the first option, after all, and 400 people die for sure. Choose the second and nobody dies with a one-third probability.
卡尼曼用这些小故事揭露可能扭曲人们思维和决策过程的诱导性思维惯性。例如，许多人认为琳达更可能是主张女权主义的银行出纳，而不是普通的银行出纳。当处理疾病的两种方案摆在眼前，大多数人会选择确保能拯救200人的方案，而不是另一种更冒险的方案——后者有三分之一的可能拯救所有人，三分之二的可能一个人也救不了。但如果重新表述两种方案，决策结果往往会有所不同。毕竟，第一个选项中，有400人是必死无疑，而第二个选择中，有三分之一的概率无人死亡。
注释：
Vignette：n. 装饰图案；小插图 a picture (such as an engraving or photograph) that shades off gradually into the surrounding paper
Source: https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/vignette
Teasing questions came easily to Kahneman, even in his sleep, according to “The Undoing Project”, a book by Michael Lewis. Some sprang from his teaching, which was not confined to ivory towers. He once explained the idea of “regression to the mean” to flight instructors in Israel’s air force. The reason pilots tended to improve after a sloppy manoeuvre was not because the instructor screamed at them, but because the chances of an improvement are higher if the prior performance was unusually bad.
根据迈克尔·刘易斯（Michael Lewis）所著的《思维的发现》(The Undoing Project)一书，卡尼曼总能轻松提出引人深思问题，即便在梦中也是如此。有些问题灵感是在他的教学中迸发出来的，他的教学也不局限于象牙塔之内。他曾向以色列空军的飞行教员解释“回归均值”的概念。飞行员之所以在一次表现不佳后取得进步，并不是因为教官对他们大喊大叫，而是因为如果之前的表现异常糟糕，那么进步的机会就更大。
注释：
1.迈克尔·刘易斯：美国当代报告文学作家、财经记者，毕业于普林斯顿大学和伦敦政治经济学院。
Source: https://zh.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E8%BF%88%E5%85%8B%E5%B0%94%C2%B7%E5%88%98%E6%98%93%E6%96%AF
2.《回归均值的故事》
Source: https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/656798594
Kahneman was a harsh grader of his own incorrigible self, attentive to his own lapses. One of his early hit papers exposed the kind of methodological muddles to which he himself was vulnerable, such as the misplaced confidence that an outlier, like a child with aniq of 150, would not skew even a small sample.
卡尼曼十分在意自己的疏漏，对自己积习难改的一面也十分严苛。他早期的一篇广受关注的论文揭示了自己容易犯的一个方法论错误。例如，想当然地认为无论样本大小，异常值（像智商150的小孩这样的特例）都不会使结果产生严重误差。
Kahneman also had a lifelong—and life-preserving—interest in gossip. His childhood, as the son of Lithuanian Jews living a comfortable but edgy pre-war existence in Paris, was full of talk about other people, he once wrote. Jews in Europe had to “assess others, all the time,” a friend of his told Mr Lewis. “Who is dangerous? Who is not dangerous?…People were basically dependent on their psychological judgment.”
卡尼曼毕生都对八卦十分感兴趣，甚至成为了生活中不可或缺的一部分。他曾经写道，作为立陶宛裔犹太人，他在战前的巴黎度过了舒适但又紧张的童年，那里到处都是别人的八卦。他的一个朋友告诉刘易斯，欧洲的犹太人需要时时刻刻评估其他人。哪些人很危险？哪些人不危险？人们基本依赖自己的心理判断。
Gossip was both a source of his work and an intended target. His bestselling book, “Thinking Fast and Slow”, was written not for decision-makers, but for “critics and gossipers”. Decision-makers were often too “cognitively busy” to notice their own biases. Pilots could be corrected by observant co-pilots and overconfident bosses might be chastened by whispers around the water-cooler, especially if the whisperers had read Kahneman’s book.
八卦既是他灵感的源泉，也是他针对的目标。他的畅销书，《思考：快与慢》并不是写给决策者的，而是写给那些喜欢批评和八卦的人。决策者通常陷入“认知忙碌状态”而无法注意到自身的偏见。机长可以被敏锐的副机长纠正，自大的上司可能会因听到饮水机旁的窃窃私语而懊悔，要是说话的人读过卡尼曼的书，那效果尤佳。
注释：
1.Chasten：to correct by punishment or suffering以惩戒的方式规训/修正
Source：https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/chasten
To spread psychological insight, Kahneman once tried to add a course on judgment to Israel’s school curriculum. He expected the project would take a year or two. It took eight, by which time the ministry of education had lost enthusiasm; a humbling example of what he and Amos Tversky, his frequent co-author, called the “planning fallacy”. He had more success inveigling psychological wisdom into the well-guarded realm of economics, which had clung to a thin but tidy model of human decision-making.
为了传播在心理学方面的洞见，卡尼曼曾经试图在以色列的学校教学设置里加上一门关于判断能力的课程。他原本预计这个课程大概需要一两年的时间设计，然而事实上花了八年。到那时，教育部已然失去了对这个课程的兴趣。这次被泼的一头冷水成为了卡尼曼和他常合作者阿摩司·特沃斯基(Amos Tversky)称为“规划谬误”的一个案例。相比之下，他在将心理学的智慧引入了壁垒森严的经济学方面更加成功，因为经济学一直固守着一套单薄但简洁的人类决策模型。
How did he do it? One answer is that he teamed up with Tversky, whose elegant mind was as ruthlessly tidy as his desk. They incorporated the cognitive illusions they had discovered into a model called “prospect theory”. According to this theory, people’s well-being responds to changes in wealth, more than levels. The changes are judged relative to a neutral reference point. That point is not always obvious and can be recast: a bonus can disappoint if it is smaller than expected. In pursuit of gains, people are risk averse. They will take a sure win of $450 over a 50% chance of winning $1,000. But people gamble to avoid losses, which loom larger than gains of an equivalent size.
他是如何做到的呢？其中一个答案是，他与特沃斯基合作，特沃斯基的思维优雅且极具条理，如同他的书桌一样整洁。他们将所发现的认知错觉整合到一个名为“前景理论”的模型中。根据这个理论，人们的幸福感对财富的变化更为敏感，超过对财富水平本身。财富变化是相对于一个中立参考点来进行判断的。这个参考点并不总是显而易见，而且可以重新构建：如果奖金比预期的少，可能会让人失望。在追求收益时，人们往往厌恶风险，宁愿选择稳拿450美元，也不愿意选择有50%的机会赢取1000美元。但是，为了避免损失，人们会选择赌一把，因为同等规模的损失和收益，损失的影响常常更大。
Prospect theory translated this model of decision-making from vignettes into the language of algebra and geometry. That made it palatable to economists. Indeed, the discipline began to claim this sort of thing as its own. Applications of psychology “came to be called behavioural economics”, lamented Kahneman, “and many psychologists discovered that the name of their trade had changed even if its content had not.”
将上述小故事所表达的决策模型用代数和几何的语言表示出来，就形成了经济学家们可以接受的前景理论。事实上，经济学开始将这些理论划分到经济学范畴。卡尼曼抱怨道，心理学在经济中的应用“逐渐被称为行为经济学。许多心理学家发现，尽管就内容而言仍是心理学，但他们所进行的研究有了新的命名。”
The cold-hand fallacy
冷水浸手悖论/冰手实验（峰值定律）
Even as economics was rebranding psychology, Kahneman revived an older economic tradition: “hedonimeters”, gauges of pleasure and pain that Francis Edgeworth, a 19th-century economist, had imagined. Kahneman’s hedonimeter simply asked people to rate their feelings moment-to-moment on a scale. He found that people’s ratings were often at odds with what they later recalled. Their “remembering” selves put undue weight on the end of an experience and its best or worst moment, neglecting its duration. People would rather keep their hand in painfully cold water for 90 seconds than for a minute, if the final 30 seconds were a little less cold than the preceding 60. Likewise, people sign up for hectic tourist itineraries because they look forward to looking back on them, not because they much enjoy them at the time.
在经济学重新定义心理学的同时，卡尼曼重启了一个古老的经济学传统“快乐计”，这是19世纪经济学家弗朗西斯·埃奇沃思（Francis Edgeworth）设想的，用于测量快乐和痛苦水平的度量器。而卡尼曼的快乐计只是要求人们在一个量表上实时评价自身感受。他发现，人们事后的评价往往与实时评价不一致。他们的“记忆”自我会过分重视一次体验结束的时刻及该体验最佳或最糟糕的瞬间，而忽略了过程中的感受。在冰手实验中，如果最后30秒比前60秒温度稍高，人们则宁愿在冰冷的水中忍受90秒，而不是一分钟。同样，人们报名参加繁忙的旅游行程是因为他们期待事后的回忆，而不是因为在过程中享受旅程。
延申阅读：
《精读《思考，快与慢》——揭示思维里隐藏的秘密》
Source：https://www.jianshu.com/p/e8d1deef8a03
The implications of this discovery extend into philosophy. Which self counts? Despite its manifest flaws, the curatorial self, artfully arranging unrepresentative memories into a life story, is dear to people. “I am my remembering self,” Kahneman wrote, “and the experiencing self, who does my living, is like a stranger to me.” Now his experiencing self has done its living. And it is up to the many people he touched to do the remembering for him.
这个发现的意义延伸到了哲学范畴。究竟哪一个自我更为重要？那个巧妙地将不具代表性的记忆组织成人生故事的策划自我，尽管有其明显缺陷，对人们而言仍是格外珍贵的。“我是我记忆的自我，”卡尼曼写到，“而那个过着我的生活的体验的自我，对我而言像是个陌生人。”现在，他“体验的自我”已经完成了其使命，而他所影响的无数人将继续他“记忆的自我”。
Martina, 想成为REST的I人
Harold，申花队下周吊打国安队
Dreamian, 寻找方向的人，一路走走听听再回头看看
Alexis，less is more.
Hannah，做个废柴，保持愉快
Snowy，敢于经常开始，也是一种坚持
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