泛三极地区的小农户气候变化脆弱性评估与国别对比研究

A comprehensive assessment of climate change vulnerability is imperative for formulating effective adaptation strategies and advancing sustainable development goals. As one of the most climate-vulnerable regions globally, the Pan-Third Pole area lacks transnational vulnerability assessments, which poses a significant obstacle to efficient climate adaptation. This study conducted transnational comparisons based on primary micro-survey data collected uniformly across Nepal, Cambodia, Thailand, and Myanmar, which are all located in the Pan-Third Pole region. Evaluating and comparing the vulnerabilities employed an extended framework of climate change indicators. The findings reveal substantial variations in vulnerability among the countries, with Cambodia exhibiting the highest vulnerability, followed by Thailand, Myanmar, and Nepal in descending order, primarily due to differences in exposure. Household exposure to climate change also varied significantly. Sensitivity scores decreased in the order of Nepal > Cambodia > Thailand > Myanmar, with demographic factors, tap water accessibility, and land being the major contributors and sources of differentiation among the countries. Regarding adaptability, Thailand demonstrated the highest adaptability, with human and financial capital as the key differentiators. The outcomes underscore the need for tailored policy measures addressing the diverse vulnerabilities, including enhancing household disaster prevention and capital protection. Furthermore, targeted international investments are crucial for improving adaptability among smallholders in this unique region.

全面评估气候变化脆弱性对于制定有效的适应战略和推进可持续发展目标至关重要。泛三极地区是全球气候最为 脆弱的地区之一，但当前跨国脆弱性评估研究的缺乏为该地区科学提出气候变化适应策略带来了挑战。本研究利用在尼泊尔、柬 埔寨、泰国和缅甸等位于泛三极地区的国家统一收集的一手微观调查数据，采用气候变化指标的扩展框架进行了气候变化脆弱性 评估和跨国比较研究。研究结果表明，国别之间的脆弱性存在明显差异，其中柬埔寨的脆弱性最高，其次是泰国、缅甸和尼泊尔， 这主要是由暴露性的差异导致的。敏感性得分按尼泊尔、柬埔寨、泰国和缅甸的顺序依次下降，人口因素、自来水可及性和土地 是各国敏感性差异的主要来源。在适应性方面，泰国表现出了最高的适应性，人力资本和金融资本是导致差异的关键因素。本研 究强调需要采取因地制宜的政策措施来降低脆弱性，包括加强家庭灾害预防和生计资本保护。此外，针对性的国际投资对于提高 泛三极地区小农户的气候变化适应能力也同样至关重要。