【经济学人】叙利亚的和平谈判丨2017.01.28丨总第803期

KAZAKHSTAN is an odd place to seek a fresh start for Syria. Its strongman, Nursultan Nazarbayev, has been in charge since Soviet times. In 2015 he won 97.7% of the vote—an even better tally than Syria’s despot, Bashar al-Assad, can command. But as a Russian-speaking capital of a Turkic nation sharing the Caspian Sea with Iran, there was some symbolism in selecting its capital, Astana, as a place to unveil the new tripartite protectorate over Syria（读者试译句）.

哈萨克斯坦会成为叙利亚问题的一个新的突破点是有点奇怪。哈萨克斯坦的最强者——努尔苏丹•纳扎尔巴耶夫—从在苏联时期开始就一直掌握该国的大权。在2015年，他赢得了97.7％的选票，比叙利亚的总统巴沙尔阿萨德更得民心。（期待您的翻译，明天会有针对这句话的长难句解析哟~）

And as peace talks go, the ones in Astana, on January 23rd-24th, marked a new realism. The hosts were the three outside powers who are doing the bulk of the fighting in Syria. Along with Russia and Turkey, they included Iran, which was pointedly kept out of the last round of talks in Geneva. The Americans, Europeans and Arabs who steered those negotiations were this time either reduced to observer status, or absent altogether. Saudi Arabia, once the rebels’ prime backer, is too preoccupied with its war in Yemen these days to have time for the one in Syria. “The uprising began as an Arab awakening and ended in a carve-up among non-Arab powers,” says a Syrian analyst.

随着和平谈判的到来，1月23日至24日在阿斯塔纳的谈判标志着一个新的现实主义。东道主是在叙利亚进行大规模战斗的三个外部大国。俄罗斯、土耳其和伊朗，他们被有意地安排与在日内瓦举行的最后一轮会谈保持些距离。控制谈判的美方，欧方以及阿拉伯人现在是作为观察员，或者呈缺席状态。曾经的叛军主要支持者——沙特阿拉伯，正专注于其在也门的战争，无暇顾及叙利亚的问题。叙利亚分析家说：“起义开始于阿拉伯觉醒，结束于非阿拉伯国家之间的割裂。

Also reflecting events on the ground, Syria’s opposition was represented by fighters, not by the politicians in exile who led the previous talks. In the past Russia would have dismissed some of the delegates as jihadists, fit only for thermobaric bombing. But, perhaps under Turkey’s nudging, it now sees the benefits of engagement if the process is to get anywhere. Muhammad Alloush, who heads an Islamist armed group, Jaish al-Islam, showed his appreciation by praising Russia, which only a month ago was crushing rebels in Aleppo, for its “neutrality”. To mollify the politicians in exile, the fighters insisted they were there to talk only about ceasefires. But the Russians also proffered a draft constitution, and issued invitations for follow-up talks in Moscow, set for January 27th. The exiles would prefer to rely on America to promote the political process in a fresh round of talks in Geneva, pencilled in for February 8th. By then, however, Russia may already have written the terms.

当然这也在引起了一系列事件，叙利亚的叛军主要是由军方控制而不是之前在和谈中被流放的政治家们。在过去，俄罗斯使用温压炸弹，可能已经击退了伊斯兰圣战者。但是，也许是在土耳其的助力下，如果这样的措施任意实行，其中的利益得失是显而易见的。Jaish al-Islam，一只伊斯兰的武装军队，它的首领Muhammad Alloush对俄方充满了感激之情，——俄方在一个月之前在阿勒颇粉碎了反叛者，以示其“中立”的立场。为了安抚被放逐的政治家，这些参战者坚持称他们仅仅是为了停止战火才会那样做的。然而俄罗斯依然提出起草宪法法案并发行了将要于1月27日在莫斯科做后续会谈的邀请函。流放的政治家们更愿意在2月8日的日内瓦进行新一轮会谈时依靠美国来促进政治进程。然而，到那时，俄罗斯或许已经签订了条款。

• exile  vt.放逐，流放;使背井离乡 n.流放，放逐，流亡;长期离家[出国];被流放者，背井离乡者

• delegates  n.代表，代表团成员( delegate的名词复数 )

• jihadists  伊斯兰圣战者;圣战

• nudging   v.（朝某方向）轻推( nudge的现在分词 );（使）达到;（暗指与性有关的事）搂搂抱抱

• proffered  v.提供，贡献，提出( proffer的过去式和过去分词 )

• Draft  adj.初步画出或（写出）的;（设计、草图、提纲或版本）正在起草中的，草拟的;以草稿形式的;草图的

• Constitution  n.宪法;建立，组成;体格;构成方式

An even more striking example of America’s new irrelevance is the mechanism devised for policing a ceasefire that has been in place for almost a month. Out went the old arrangements agreed on with John Kerry, America’s former secretary of state, last September. Russia’s new partners were Turkey and Iran, who together would “observe and ensure full compliance with the ceasefire, prevent any provocation and determine all modalities”.

一个关于美国不想参与此事的更明显的例子就是，美国推出无关紧要的停火机制已有近一个月了。而之前支持美国前国务卿John Kerry的停火歇息已经是去年九月的了。俄罗斯将会与新搭档土耳其，伊朗，一起“遵守与确保停火的承诺，用一切方式阻止一切挑衅。”

• striking  adj.引人注目的;显著的;容貌出众的;妩媚动人的v.击;打( strike的现在分词);敲响;报时

• irrelevance  n.无关紧要;不相关;不相关的事物

• compliance  n.服从，听从;承诺;柔软度;顺度

Can this work? Tellingly, the final communiqué, seeking to bolster the ceasefire, was issued by the external powers, while Syria’s belligerents registered protests and reservations. However, the rebels probably have little choice but to comply. Chased out of their last major urban redoubt in Aleppo and doubtful of their support from the new American administration, many want to grab what they can. Even so, the war continues undiminished against some of the most powerful militias left off Astana’s guest list—Islamic State, the YPG Kurdish forces, and particularly an al-Qaeda offshoot, Jabhat Fatah al-Sham (JFS). JFS has launched its own offensive, pitting its 6,000 hardened fighters against the 15,000 of more moderate groups. That intra-rebel battle is again cutting roads across Idlib, the poor rural province the rebels still hold, and closing crossings to Turkey as they fight over bases.

这个能有效吗？值得关注的是，当叙利亚的交战双方显示出要反抗和保留意见时，最后公报由外界力量发表，表示要停火。然而，这些造反的人除了顺从之外没什么选择。在阿勒坡，（造反者）从他们最后的主要城市堡垒被赶出去，以及（造反者）对美国新政府支持的怀疑，这些都使他们想要抓住他们能抓住的东西。即便是这样，战争也不会继续削弱一些最强盛的民兵，然后从阿斯塔纳的客人名单中除去——伊斯兰国，YPG库尔德的部队，尤其一个叫征服沙姆阵线的基地组织的分支。JFS已经开始了它的进攻，派遣6000个精锐将士去攻打有15000个士兵的更稳健的军队。而内战再一次切断了（他们）跨越伊德利朴的路，一些穷困乡下省份仍然在坚守并在他们打基础战的时候快要穿越土耳其了。

Judging by its record, Mr Assad’s regime will be as recalcitrant. Talks may bring him benefits, such as dividing the opposition. (Mr Assad’s representative, Bashar al-Jaafari, quipped that he hoped the terrorists would help defeat the terrorists.) But even when weaker, the regime preferred military options. Having won the whip hand, it is in no mood to discuss a transition to a broader government. Should Russia try to bring him to heel, Mr Assad is signalling he has other friends to turn to. While Iran sat at the table talking ceasefires, Mr Assad and its forces were making common cause fighting in the valleys of Wadi Barrada above Damascus.

根据记录判断，阿萨德政府将继续顽抗。谈判或许会给他带来利益，例如，能够分化反对党。(阿萨德的发言人Bashar al-Jaafari讽刺道这是以毒攻毒。)但是即便反对派削弱了，阿萨德政府还是偏向于军事主义政策。既然已经在政府中取得了支配地位，那么阿萨德政府也没有闲情逸致来讨论如何转变为一个更加民主的联合政府。就算俄罗斯准备逼迫阿萨德政府就范，他也暗示了自己还有其他可以寻求帮助的盟友。当伊朗政府在谈判桌上寻求停火之际，阿萨德及其军队正在准备在大马士革之上的WadiBarrada山谷发动进攻。

By delegating responsibility for the ceasefire to three outside powers, the tripartite mechanism may well have the effect of creating zones of influence. Untroubled by the Iranians and Russians, the Turks are fighting to expand their enclave (against IS and the Kurds) in the north. The Iranians are doing much the same around Damascus. Russia is firmly entrenched on the coast. The conflict, it seems, will continue; as will yet another of the Middle East’s sad, interminable peace processes.

通过授权同意外部三方势力停火，这三方会谈应该会对这片区域造成深刻影响。由于没有受到伊朗人和俄罗斯人的妨碍，土耳其人正在北部扩张他们的飞地(来对抗IS以及库尔德武装)。伊朗人也在大马士革周边做着相似的事情。而俄罗斯人封锁了海岸线。冲突似乎还会继续；与此同时中东之伤其二，和平之路任重而道远。

翻译 ▍人文二组

审核 ▍小情人

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