【经济学人】希望之春 | 2017.04.22 | 总第885期

APRIL is the cruellest month, breeding lilacs out of the dead land, and, in Washington, chirpy forecasts from the IMF that often prove a bit too chirpy. On April 18th the fund released its semi-annual World Economic Outlook (WEO), raising its forecast for global growth in 2017 to 3.5%.

四月最无情，死地丁香生，并且在华盛顿，来自国际货币基金组织的愉悦预测经常被证明有点太兴奋了。4月18日，国际货币基金组织公开了其半年一次的世界经济展望(WEO)，将它对2017年全球增长的预测提高到3.5%。

• nudge up：v.推动

• l ilacs：丁香花； 丁香

• chirpy：欢快的;活泼的

Growth forecasts for the emerging world have not changed. The IMF’s global optimism is based instead on hopes of increased growth in the rich world. The fund takes a rosy view of the American economy, citing both high levels of consumer confidence and Donald Trump’s plans for more government spending. In Britain the IMF now reckons GDP will grow by 2.0% in 2017, up from earlier estimates of 1.5% (issued in January) and 1.1% (last October). The IMF has also raised its forecasts for Japan and the euro area.

对新兴世界的增长预测还没有改变。国际货币基金组织对全球经济持有的乐观主义并不是基于发达国家经济增长的希望。该组织对美国经济持乐观态度，引用了消费者信心高水平和唐纳德·特朗普计划增加政府支出。国际货币基金组织现在认为在英国2017年GDP将增加2.0% ，比早前的预估上升了1.5% （1月发布）和1.1% （10月份）。国际货币基金组织同样上调了对日本和欧元区的预测。

• rosy：充满希望的;前景美好的;有望成功的

Snipers point out that IMF forecasts have been far from perfect. Some glitches are excusable . In the spring of 1990, it predicted that Kuwait’s economy would grow by 0.8% that year. It actually fell by 26%. The IMF’s model did not allow for an Iraqi invasion. But other errors are less easily explained: between 1990 and 2007, the IMF’s spring forecasts underestimated global growth in 13 of the 18 years, in large part because it failed to foresee the spectacular rise of China.

狙击手指出，国际货币基金组织一直都不完美无缺。一些小差错可以谅解。1990年的春天，它曾预测科威特的经济那年将增长 0.8%。实际上却下降了26%.国际货币基金组织的模型并未考虑到伊拉克的入侵。但是其他一些错误却难以解释：1990年至2007年这18年之间，有13年国际货币基金组织的春季预测低估了全球增长，很大一部分是因为它不未能预见中国惊人的崛起。

• Snipers：狙击手

• glitches：小故障；小毛病；小差错

• excusable：可原谅的；可谅解的

Since the financial crisis, however, the IMF has had to revise down its forecasts over time every year since 2010 (see chart). The fund’s spring forecasts for the coming year have turned out to be over-optimistic in the past three years.

然而自经济危机一来，从2000年起，国际货币基金组织不得不渐渐每年修改其预测（见表格）。在过去三年，该组织对来年经济的春季预测结果是过于乐观。

Christine Lagarde, the IMF’s boss, recently conceded that economic growth in the past six years has been “disappointing”, but held firm in her belief that the world economy was turning. Hence the positive revision to its global GDP forecast— albeit by just a tenth of a percentage point.

国际货币基金组织的总裁克里斯蒂娜•拉加德最近承认过去六年经济增长一直“差强人意”，但是坚持她的信念,相信世界经济正在回转。因此，对全球GDP预测的乐观看法—尽管只有百分之十分之一。

• albeit：尽管；即使

The global economy may still falter for a number of reasons. Ms Lagarde worries the rich world will suffer “self-inflicted wounds” from poor policy choices, notably on trade. Political uncertainty abounds. Just hours before the IMF released the WEO came the surprising news of an imminent election in Britain. The known unknowns hardly help, either. Mr Trump’s fiscal policies, for example, are far from firm plans—Maurice Obstfeld, the IMF’s chief economist, calls them “a work in progress”.(读者试译）

全球经济可能仍然会因为一些原因停止不前。拉加德担心发达国家将从不合理的政策选择中遭受“自我伤害”，特别是在贸易方面。政治不确定性比比皆是。正在国际货币基金组织发布世界经济展望后几个小时，出现了英国出人意料选举的惊人消息。已知的未知数也没有帮助。( 期待您的翻译，明天会有针对这句话的长难句解析哟~)

• falter：衰退;停步不前

• imminent：(尤指不愉快的事)临近的，即将发生的，逼近的

翻译 ▍晶晶

审核 ▍晶晶

图文编辑 ▍澜意

责任编辑 ▍毛毛