如果音乐家或者其他从事创作性工作的人遵循这条原则,你认为爵士乐会受创吗?
好的爵士乐来自流动中的潜意识,同时吸引潜意识带动它进入意识的涌流中。以证据为基础的决策则源自显意识,帮助人有逻辑地解决问题。所以你的问题似乎是在问,以证据为基础的决策能否帮助你更好地表演舞蹈。可能有一点帮助,但作用不大,毕竟这不是它的原本用途。
Great Jazz comes from the subconscious mind being in the flow, and it appeals to the subconscious mind to help it get into the flow/groove. Evidence based decision making comes from the conscious mind to help figuring things out logically. So your question is a bit like asking whether evidence based decision making will help you dance better. Perhaps a bit, but not much, as that’s not what it’s for.
情绪是有价值的信号,所以我不会忽视它,但是必须和事实对照参考。
如果一个人的潜意识直觉能够和显意识逻辑保持一致,令二者保持同步,是做最佳决策的好方法,尤其是当一个人的观点能与(也用此方法的)聪明人的观点相一致。
Aligning one’s subconscious intuitions with one’s conscious logic so that they are both in sync is a great way of making the best decisions, especially if one aligns one’s views with smart people’s views who are getting them in the same way.
瑞,假设30年后,金融市场的所有投资决策都由机器和算法来做,在这种情况下,你认为创造阿尔法会更依赖运气而不是技能吗?有些人认为技能和错误的存在是源自人类的存在。如果没有人类,就不存在错误,从而创造阿尔法也就无关技能。
请记住,在市场上,大多数人发现的东西都是没有价值的。因此我相信竞争依然存在,并将会一直存在,而掌握最佳决策方法的竞争者将胜出。我认为算法是非常宝贵的工具,而最重要的是如何有效竞争,以获得最好的算法。此外,我相信最好的方法是将一个人的深度理解与算法结合起来,尽管在很长一段时间内这会是最难的方法。
Remember that in the markets that which is discovered by most people is worthless. So I think there will still, and will always be, competitions and that those with the best decision making approaches will win. I believe that the algos will be invaluable and how effectively one competes to get the best ones will be most important. I also think my approach of aligning one’s deep understanding with one’s algorithms will be best, though it will remain hardest, for a long time.