在做决定的过程中，比起找到“最完美的选择”，“做出选择并承担相应的结果”才是我们逐渐独立和成熟的表现。选择、承担、反思、接受真相。正是在这个过程中，我们越来越有能力预测自己在不同选择中的结果。从而变成一个，总是“知道自己在做什么”的人。
为什么总是做不好人生选择？
译者
：高浦铭&倪婷&黄倩霞
校
对：曾擎禹&鲁城华
策划：鲁城华
What’s the best option?
什么是最好的选择？
本文节选自 AEON | 取经号原创翻译
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It seems only logical: if A is better than B, and B is better than C, then A is better than C. Right? Not necessarily
从逻辑上来说：”如果A比B好，B比C好，那么A一定比C好。“听上去很有道理，但事实上不见得如此。
Some parents urge their children to be the best in everything they do. They push them to be the best athlete, and the best scholar, and the best musician, and so on. Other parents urge their children to pursue whatever they are best at, whether it be athletics, academics or music. Some parents push their children to try their best. Still others try hard not to push their children to be the best, or even to try to be their best, because they worry about the psychological damage that such messages might cause. But most parents love their children, and however they raise them, they are trying the best they can on their behalf. After all, most parents genuinely want what is best for their children – they just have different conceptions of what that requires.
有些家长要求孩子在每件事上都做到最好，督促他们成为最棒的运动员、最出色的学者、最杰出的音乐家等等。有些家长要求孩子只用在最擅长的领域做到最好，无论是运动、学术，或是音乐。有些家长则希望他们竭尽全力即可。还有一些家长则尽量不逼迫孩子力争最好，甚至不要求他们竭尽全力，因为害怕这些期许会对孩子造成心理伤害。当然，大多数家长都爱自己的孩子，方式或许各有不同，但都在以自认为“最好”的方式培养他们。毕竟，他们都希望孩子们得到最好的，只是对“最好”的定义各有不同。
In seeking what is best for their children, most parents are implicitly buying into what has been the dominant view of individual rationality, at least in the West, since the time of the Greeks.
到底什么才是最好的？家长们在寻找答案时，大多数依旧赞同“个人理性”的观点，该观点自古希腊时期开始便成为至少是西方国家的主流思想。
On this conception, what it is to be rational is to act so as to maximise the overall quality of one’s life over the course of one’s life – that is, a rational agent chooses whatever options will make her life, as a whole, go as well as possible.
“个人理性”是指：对个人而言，理性行为就是毕其一生使其生命意义最大化，即：一个理性人做每一次选择都是为了让生活更有价值。
Built into the standard conception of rationality are two fundamental assumptions. The first is that there is a best way for any life to be. The second is a more technical assumption – I’ll call it the Axiom of Transitivity for Better Than – which holds that for any three choices, if the first option is better than the second, and the second option is better than the third, then the first option must be better than the third.
理性准则的理论前提是两大基本假定。第一个是：人生总有一条路是最好的。第二个假定更专业：我称之为“优选递推原理”，即：在三个选择中，如果第一个比第二个好，第二个比第三个好，那么第一个一定比第三个好。
The Axiom of Transitivity for Better Than generates a decision procedure for identifying the best of any finite set of options. Compare them two at a time. If the first is better, throw the second out. Then compare the third with the first. If the third is better, throw the first out. Proceed in this way, always choosing the best of each set of two alternatives. On this basis, if the Axiom of Transitivity for Better Than is true, we can determine the best of any finite set of n options, on the basis of n-1 pairwise comparisons.
优选递推原理产生了一种决策流程，能够在一组数量固定的选集中挑出最佳选择。每次只选两个进行比较，如果第一个更好，第二个直接出局。然后把第三个跟第一个比较，如果第三个更好，第一个就出局。按照这种方式发展下去，二选一，总能选到最好的。如果这一原理是正确的，以此为基础，我们便可以通过“n-1”组二选一的结果来确定总量为n的集合中的最佳选择。
Many people have challenged the first assumption in one of four ways. Some have pointed out that some options might be equally good, so there is no single best option. Others have suggested that some alternatives might be only roughly comparable, or on a par. On this view, two alternatives could be in the same ballpark, say the genius of Einstein or Mozart, or a legal career versus an academic career, without one being better than the other, or their being exactly equally good. Still others have suggested that in some rare cases two alternatives can be completely incomparable. And finally, some have noted that among an infinite number of possibilities, there might be no best one, just as there is no largest number in the infinite sequence 1, 2, 3, 4, …
许多人对第一条假定提出了四个方面的异议。有人指出有些选择可能一样好，不能简单归结哪一个更好。有些人认为不同选择可能不分伯仲，趋于一致。他们认为两个不同选择可能会很接近，比如爱因斯坦和莫扎特所处领域不同但都是天才，律师跟学者之间没有谁好谁差也没法说都一样好。还有些人认为在一些个例中，两个选择是无法比较的。最后有人指出，如果选择的数量无穷大，可能无法评出一个最佳选项，就像无穷数列1，2，3，4…里没有最大数字。
Friends of the standard conception of rationality can readily amend their view to accommodate such worries. They can say that if two alternatives are equally good, genuinely incomparable or only roughly comparable, then there is no compelling reason to choose one rather than the other, so we can choose either, rationally. They can then add that we are finite beings, who usually must select from a finite set of options, and for all such cases an agent can rationally choose any option as long as there is no available option that is better than it. So, on this amended view, even if there might be no single best option, rationality can direct us to never choose a worse option over an available better option.
理性准则的支持者早已想好应对之词。如果两个选择一样好、没什么可比性，亦或旗鼓相当，那就不用非得选择一个放弃一个，我们可以理性地任选其一。此外，我们是数量有限的生物体，而且经常得在数量有限的选项中做出选择，并且在这些情况下，只要没有比它更好的，便可以做出理性地选择。因此，这个补充论点说明，即便有时没有简单的所谓最佳选择，理性的行为方式可以避免我们选择差的错过好的。
The second fundamental assumption has gone unchallenged for most of human history. Most philosophers, economists and others have assumed that the Axiom of Transitivity for Better Than must be true, in virtue of the meanings of the words better than, or as a matter of logic. Indeed, most have assumed that all comparative ‘-er than’ relations must be transitive. And most are. So, for example, if Ahmed is taller (or faster, or heavier) than Ilsa, and Ilsa is taller (or faster or heavier) than Quiping, then, indeed, Ahmed must be taller (or faster, or heavier) than Quiping.
第二个假定在人类历史上没有引发过多争议。出于对“更好”一词的理解，或逻辑上的考量，大多数的哲学家、经济学家和其他领域的专家都认为“优选递推原理”是必然合理的。事实上，他们大都假设，所有的比较关系之间都是可传递的。大部分情况的确如此。 例如，艾哈迈德比伊萨更高（更快或更重），伊萨比奇平更高（更快或更重），那么艾哈迈德一定比奇平更高（更快或更重）。
But the second fundamental assumption about rationality could be deeply mistaken.
但是人们很可能深深误解了第二个基本假定。
It is striking how often people purchase an item, and immediately regret having bought that item, rather than an alternative item that they might have bought. This common reaction is normally thought to reflect some kind of psychological shortcoming in the agent. And no doubt often it does. But there is another possible explanation for buyer’s remorse being so ubiquitous. It might be that we often face a series of options for which the Axiom of Transitivity for Better Than fails. In those cases, there will be a series of options where the first will be better than the second, the second better than the third, the third better than the fourth, and so on, but the last option will be better than the first.
有一个令人吃惊的现象：人们在买东西后，通常很快会后悔为什么买了这件而没有买另一件。这种普遍现象反映了某种心理缺陷。毫无疑问，这是常有的事。但是这种懊悔现象之普遍，可能存在另一种解释：优先递推原理无法解决我们面临的一系列选择。在一系列选择中，第一种优于第二种，第二种优于第三种，第三种优于第四种，以此类推，但最后一种却又优于第一种。
In that case, we would have an example of what the economists call a cycle, and a rational agent will have good reason to prefer the first option to the second (because it is, after all, better), and good reason to prefer the third option to the second, and so on, but the rational agent will also have good reason to prefer the first option to the last. In that case, there is no best option. Worse, it is guaranteed that whatever option one chooses, there will have been another available option that was better. In that case, it will be natural for people to suffer buyer’s remorse, as they will come home, compare the purchase they made with another one they might have made, and decide, correctly, that they chose the worse outcome. The problem is that if they were confronting a cycle of intransitive alternatives, such buyer’s remorse will be inevitable.
这种情况下，我们举一个经济学家称之为“循环”的例子。 作为一个理性主体，如果第一个东西比第二个好，那么有充分的理由买第一个而不是第二个， 同样也会存在第三个好于第二个理由。但是作为理性主体，也有充分的理由买第一个而不是最后一个。这种情况下，就没有最优选择。更糟糕的是，不管买了哪个，保准还有更好的选择出现。所以，买家懊悔是再自然不过的事了，回到家把买到手的东西和应该买的东西进行各种比较，然后就发现自己确实选错了。问题在于，如果买家面对的是一个“循环”的递推选择，产生“买家懊悔”是不可避免的。
If I’m right, attempts to identify the best possible life for one’s child might be doomed to failure
如果我是对的，那么尝试为孩子找出最适合他的人生路，注定是会失败的。
Return to the parent who wants what is best for her child. Perhaps, at some point, she might consider urging her child to become an elementary-school teacher, which is a noble profession, and has many advantages. But if the child is talented, she might think that the life of a college professor would be even better, as it would also involve teaching, but perhaps bring more intellectual stimulation, better pay and greater respect.
回到父母想要为孩子做最好的选择这一问题。也许某一时候，她会建议孩子成为一名小学教师，这是一个崇高的职业，有很多优势。但如果孩子天赋异禀，她可能会认为大学教授的生活更好，同样是教书，大学教授对智力要求更高，薪水更多也更受尊重。
However, compared with the life of a professor, she might decide the life of a solicitor would be better still. It, too, would have intellectual stimulation, and perhaps even greater pay, with fewer years of schooling required, and much better job prospects. Yet, compared with the life of a solicitor, that of an investment banker might seem even better, with a host of social and economic benefits that few solicitors could hope to attain.
但是，与教授相比，她又会觉得当律师可能更好。律师同样需要很高的智力水平，收入还可能更高，对学历的要求低一些，就业前景更好。然而，与律师相比，投资人的工作可能更可观，它能带来的社会和经济利益是许多律师无法企及的。
