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【原文推送】克罗谈投资策略（25）完结篇

投资圈女混混 · 公众号 · 投资 · 2017-05-01 19:40

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附言市场不坑人

The Market Dosen't Take Prisoners

It was my annual tour of the New York Boat Show. My son and I paused for a brief rest after two hours of traipsing the aisles and booths of the various exhibitors, and I couldn’t help overhearing an animated conversation nearby. There was a terrific base-ball movie that, according to this group’s consensus should not be missed. The movie was The Natural, and, being a former baseball fan, I rented it for my VCR the following weekend. It really was a terrific film about personal courage and commitment, patience, discipline, and the importance of a high standard of excellence. Oh yes, it was also about baseball. I’ve thought about this film and what it meant to different viewers. Was it a baseball film?

Undeniably yes. But from my perspective, that was the least important aspect of the story. The importance of commitment, discipline, self-confidence, and courage were, for me, what it was all about.

我每年都会去看纽约游艇展。我跟儿子在走道和不同的展位来回闲逛，2个小时下来，走累了，稍微休息一下，这时不禁听到附近生动的对话。原来那里有部很好的棒球电影，别人都说值得一看。电影名字叫《天生好手》，由于我以前是棒球迷，于是周末租了一部用录像机放着看。那真是部很棒的影片——谈的是勇气，承诺，耐心，纪律以及追求卓越的重要性。哦，当然了，片子里描写的是棒球，但是我觉得它适合不同的观众。它真的只是部棒球电影吗？毫无疑问，当然是。但是从我的观点来说，棒球是电影中最不重要的因素。对我来说，承诺，纪律，自信，勇气，才是它谈的主题。

The parallels to futures trading are unmistakable, albeit not so obvious. When I first got involved with these markets in the early 1960s, my outlook was straightforward, bordering on the simplistic. I studied charting technique, spent hours learning to recognize top and bottom formations with all sorts of esoteric names, and endlessly debated the accuracy of projecting price moves with line versus point-and-figure counts. The strategies of speculation or hedging, the principles of sound money management, and the personal and emotional traits needed to be a winner were scribbled on a couple of small index cards. I kept one in my calendar book, another in my top desk drawer, and a third in my shirt pocket for ready reference. Like other traders, I tended to focus on the technical aspects of markets and trading, relegating strategies and tactics to a distinctly secondary niche.

它给期货交易带来的启示十分清楚，但是并不是一目了然。60年代初，我刚涉入这个市场时，我的看法是很直截了当的，几乎可以说是单纯的。我研究了画图技巧，花了很多时间研究头部和底部的形成，以及深奥的名词，也看了数不清有关直线图还是点数图预测价格比较准确的争论。我用了一些小小的索引卡片，把投机或避险的策略，优秀资金管理的原则，赚钱致胜的个人和情绪素质，都记了下来。我把一张放在行事历里，另一张放在办公桌最上面的抽屉，第三张放在我衬衫口袋中。目的是随时都看得到。就像其他交易者，我倾向于把注意力集中在市场和交易的技术层面上，策略和战术则退居第二线。

From the vantage point of some 30 years I can see that the balance shifted gradually, but unmistakably, to a near 50:50 formula between technical and strategic considerations. I’ve often remarked that, if forced to choose between a first-class technical system with average strategies and tactics or an average technical system with outstanding strategies and tactics, I would opt for the latter every time. It is the strategy and tactics, the money management and emotional control that has absorbed my interest generally for 15 or 20 years - particularly during the five years I’ve been writing this book. It will absorb you during the time that you read it and, hopefully, for long after you put it back on the shelf.

在期货市场打滚约30年，我可以发现两者的轻重慢慢在改变，但是很明显的，只是到了技术性和策略性考量大致旗鼓相当的地步。我常常讲，如果在一流的技术系统，与平凡无奇的策略和战术以及平凡无奇的技术系统，与优秀的策略和战术两者取其一的话，我每次都宁可选择后者。在15——20年的时间内，吸引我兴趣的是策略和战术，资金管理，情绪控制——尤其是在我写这本书的5年内。在你看这本书的时候，它们也会吸引你的兴趣，我也希望，在你把这本书放回书架以后，这些东西也会继续吸引你。

My own trading, over the course of these years, has run the gamut from very good to very bad-from very profitable to near-disastrous. Without a doubt, though, my biggest profits and most comfortable positions have occurred when I was trading in the direction of the prevailing major trend. Conversely, my biggest losses and greatest stresses (for they seem to travel hand-in-hand), occurred when I took or sat with antitrend positions held at losses. This is unquestionably the universal experience. It applies to seasoned professional and rank neophyte, to speculators and hedgers. It applies to operators in New York, Chicago, London, Zurich, and Hong Kong.

这些年来，我自己的交易成绩有好的，也有很差的——从非常赚钱的交易到几乎让我一蹶不振的都有。不过有件事毫无疑问，那就是我最赚钱和最令我安心的交易，总是顺着当时的大势而交易的时候。相反的，我亏的最惨和感受到最大压力的交易（两者似乎是难兄难弟），总是在我建立或持有逆势亏钱仓不放的时候。这应该也是大家共同的经验，不管是老经验的专业人士还是新手，或者是投机者还是避险者，都应该有相同的体验才对。不管是纽约、芝加哥、伦敦、还是苏黎士、香港的交易者，都应该有相同的感受才是。

I’ve been fortunate enough to have experienced the mind-boggling sensation of taking seven-figures-to-the-left-of-the-decimal-point profits and six-figures-to-the-left-of-the-decimal-point losses. Fortunate to have taken losses? Yes indeed-because we learn more, or at least we ought to, from our losses than from our profits. But, as someone once said, “I’ve had profits and I’ve had losses, and profits are better.”

我很幸运，能够经验到动人心魄，得到7位数的利润，以及6位数的亏损。很幸运能够得到亏损？是的，没错——因为我们从亏损中学到的东西比赚钱的时候还多，事实上可能也是理需如此。就像有人说过：“我赚过钱，也亏过钱，但是赚的钱比亏的钱多。”

A colleague recently remarked that, after all these years, I seem to have retained a sense of humor about the business. That may be true, and a sense of humor is unquestionably an asset in any field of endeavor. But for the futures trader, having a sense of humor goes hand-in-hand with having a balanced perspective. You need it to get you through the inevitable ups and downs (the “oops” periods) in this wild and woolly business.

有位同行最近表示，经过这些年之后，我似乎对这一行保留了一些幽默感。也许那是真的，不管在哪一行努力，有点幽默感也是个人资产。但是对期货交易者来说，有幽默感和有平衡的观点，两者不可分的。在这个狂乱和不明确的行业中，你需要这些东西帮你渡过起伏不定的时刻。

The seasoned operator has learned from long and costly experience that he is going to encounter good periods, when he is emotionally very up, and bad periods, when his spirits sink like lead weights. He truly needs a good sense of emotional balance and market perspective. He must ride out those good times and not get seduced by sudden success; and he must avoid getting carried away (or carried out) during the bad times.

在期货市场打滚多年的交易者经历漫长时间得到代价昂贵的经验，知道个人心情好时，就会碰到好时光，心情低落如同有铅压在心头时，则会有坏时光。这种人真的需要很好的情绪平衡和市场眼光。他必须要趁着好时光长驱直入，但不要被突然的成功诱惑；他也必须避免在坏时机中随波逐流（或迷失了自己）。

Disappointment and discouragement are two basic human emotions. The serious operator must have the self-discipline to overcome the blues and to stick with an objective, systematic method of futures investing. Of no less importance, he must maintain the self-confidence to be able to plow through the bad days (or weeks or months) because that is the only way to make the losses back, with interest, during the next good period. And, no matter how grim things may appear, there will definitely be a “next good period” so long as the operator stays alive by limiting losses on adverse positions.

失望和泄气是人的两种基本情绪。真的想闯一番事业的交易者，一定要能自律，克服心理上的沮丧，要坚持使用客观系统性的方法。同样重要的，他必须保持自信心，要能渡过艰苦的日子（好几个星期或者好几个月），因为只有这样，才能在下一次的好时光中连本带利把损失捞回来。而且，无论事情看起来多么黯淡冷酷，只要交易者还活着，能够控制住不利仓位的亏损，之后绝对会碰到好时光。

Another way of saying this was articulated by a gentleman named Dennis Conner in 1987. Mr. Conner may not know very much about the specifics of futures trading, but he has to be one of the world’s leading experts on winning and losing. To him fell the dubious distinction of being the only U.S. America’s Cup helms-man to lose the cup in the long history of that competition, only to win it back in 1987 with four straight victories. “It is not how you get hit, but how you recover,” he uttered. And he should know!

丹尼斯·康勒1987年用另一种方式来谈这件事。康勒对期货交易的细节可能懂得没有那么多，但他是世界上屈指可数，理解输赢个中精髓的专家。他在美国杯的比赛中，从没输过那么久，直到1987年他才连赢4场。他说：“重要的事情不是你怎么走红，而是你怎么复原。”他真是懂得个中滋味。

Anyone writing a book of an instructional nature runs a certain risk. There is bound to be some fellow who, after reading the book, will break all the rules, do the thing absolutely back-wards or upside down, and still win. There is always the golfer who, after reading the definitive way to hold a club, will reverse the position of his hands and sink the putt. There is the futures trader who makes a lot of money while totally disregarding the trend, disdaining protective stops, and overtrading. Haven’t we all, at some time, wondered how this sort of anomaly could ever happen? But, the fact that some golfer can sink a putt while holding his club reversed or a futures trader make some money by ignoring the rules doesn’t prove a thing. It may just be further confirmation, as if we needed additional proof, that strange or unusual things sometimes manage to occur. But, and here’s the point, they don’t happen very often! And you can’t count on them happening, either.

不管是谁，只要他写的是教人怎么冒险的书，总有人看完书以后，违背所有原则，完全颠倒来做，却还能赢得胜利。这个世界上就是有打高尔夫球人，看了书上教人怎么握杆之后，实际打球却反其道而行，还是能够一击进洞。有些交易者完全不理会什么趋势，不设什么保护性的止损点，而且时进时出，依然能够赚大钱。我们全都想过这些不按牌理出牌的人到底是怎么做到的？但是，那些打高尔夫球的人反手握杆，挥杆进洞，或者期货交易者忽视原则依然赚钱的事实，并不能证明什么东西。这些事情只是进一步证实：奇怪和不寻常的事情有时确实会发生。而且，最重要的一点，是这些事情不会经常发生！你也不能指望这些事情经常发生。

My answer to the iconoclastic individual who seeks futures profits while violating most of the proven precepts of sound strategy and money management is to quote Damon Runyon. “The race may not always go to the swift, nor the contest to the strong, but that’s the way you want to bet.” So, in your gardening, your poetry, your sculpture, or your cooking, be as uninhibited as you dare, break all the rules or invent a few of your own, and think of discipline as just another word in the dictionary. But, in your futures trading, play by the rules in a disciplined and pragmatic manner, trying to keep in step with the trend, which really is your friend. Keep your losses under control and don’t try to pick off major tops and bottoms. And let the margin clerk or the equity run tell you when your are wrong. Be sure to heed the warning because “he who takes a small loss and runs away, lives to make big money another day.” You must train yourself to ignore any personal bias towards the long side of the market because, as you have undoubtedly learned many (expensive) times, “they slide faster than they glide.” You must be able to position yourself short for the slide just as easily and comfortably as you position yourself long for the glide. Whenever you have the urge to experiment, to develop new strategies or trading rules, I would be the first person to encourage that kind of individuality. By all means go for it-but test it on paper, on your computer, and in hypothetical trading. When you’re in there with real money, it’s not the time to experiment with theories or unproven strategies. The price of failure is too steep. Stick to what has been proven to work in the real market with real trades and real dollars.

那些不想按牌理出牌，一再违反已经证明管用的优秀策略和资金管理原则，还想赚钱的人，不妨听听达蒙·鲁尼恩的话：“赛跑不一定是跑得最快的人赢，比赛也不一定是最强壮的人赢，但是你还是必须尽全力去做才有希望。”你在整理花园的时候，做诗的时候，或者雕刻，烹饪的时候，尽可能大胆发挥想象力，违背所有的规则或者自己创造一些新鲜东西，把纪律两个字看成只是字典上的另一个字眼，但是交易期货的时候，却一定要一板一眼，以严守纪律和务实的态度，依所有的原则行事，跟着趋势亦步亦趋，趋势才是你真正的朋友。你必须控制自己的损失，不要去抓大行情的头部和底部。当你错误的时候，让那些追缴保证金的职员打电话来告诉你。你一定要去注意这个警报，因为那些“交易不当而跑开的人，只要留一口气，改天还能再进场（并赚钱）”。你必须把自己训练得能够忽视个人的任何偏见，不要老是想做多，因为无疑的，你一定学过这次（昂贵的）教训，因为“滑的比飞的还快”。你必须有能力轻易地在市场下跌时做空，而且不能紧张，就像市场上涨时做多那样轻松愉快。每当你有股冲动，想要去实验，想要研究新的策略或交易规则时，我会是第一个鼓励这种想要独树一帜的人。你尽管去做——不过是在纸面上，电脑上和模拟交易中测试。当你实战操作时，根本没有时间让你去实验各种各样的理论或策略。失败的代价是十分惨痛的。所以说，你一定要照着那些已经被证明，利用真实的交易和真实的金钱，在真实的市场中证明行得通的方法去做。

Finally, I hope that this book will help you to look at markets in a new light. If I have done my job as author effectively, you will have more self-confidence in your ability to trade profitably. You will trade the major trends, you will control your losses while letting profits run, and you will adhere to the strictest pragmatism and discipline in your operations. If you recall and practice these and the myriad other strategies and tactics presented here, you are going to do better in your trading. You will score better profits on your winning positions and suffer smaller losses on your adverse positions. And that all adds up to better bottom-line results.

最后，我期望这本书能够给你新的启示，用新的眼光去看市场。如果我想还算不错的话，看完了这本书，你会对自己交易获利的能力更有信心。你应该知道：要顺着大趋势去做；要控制你的亏损，同时让利润越滚越大；交易时必须用最务实的态度和严守纪律的精神。如果你能记住这些，而且身体力行上面所说的这些东西和策略，你的交易一定会有更好的成绩，赚钱的仓位一定会赚的更多，亏钱的仓位会亏的更少。这些加起来，就是账户里的钱会越来越多。

Oh, and two more things. Thanks for reading my book, and GOOD LUCK!

哦，最后还有两件事，一是谢谢你阅读这本书，二是祝你好运。

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