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禾賽科技: 24Q2收入符合指引,毛利率表現亮眼,量產定點穩步拓展

天风国际  · 公众号  ·  · 2024-09-13 17:22

正文

Hesai Group

(HSAI US)


24Q2收入符合指引,毛利率表現亮眼,量產定點穩步拓展


24Q2E: revenue in line with guidance; healthy gross margin; designated mass-production order growth

BUY (maintain)


投資要點/Investment Thesis

投資要点/Investment Thesis

24Q2業績概覽: 24Q2收入爲4.6億元,位於此前指引上沿,yoy+4.2%;毛利率爲45.1%,yoy+15.3pct;經調整淨利潤爲-4360萬元。


交付量情況: 24Q2 ADAS激光雷達出貨量爲80773臺,同比增長76.8%。24Q2激光雷達總出貨量爲86526臺,同比增長66.1%。24H1 ADAS激光雷達出貨量爲133235臺,同比增長80.3%。24H1激光雷達總出貨量爲145627臺,同比增長67.5%。


業務進展: 海外已獲得4家量產定點,國內獲得多項25年新車型定點。截至24Q2,公司已在全球範圍內與19家OEM廠商就超過70款車型達成ADAS量產定點。


24Q2E revenue up 4% yoy; net loss widened 7%; gross margin expanded 15ppt

Key results: Hesai released unaudited 24Q2E results recently:

•Revenue climbed 4.2% yoy to RMB460m in 24Q2E, at the upper limit of the guidance range.

•Gross margin was 45.1%, up 15.3ppt yoy.

•Adjusted net loss was RMB43.6m, widening 7.4% yoy.


Deliveries:

•Q2: the company shipped 86,526 lidar units, up 66.1% yoy; including 80,773 ADAS lidar units, up 76.8% yoy.

•H1: 145,627 lidar units were shipped, up 67.5% yoy; including 133,235 ADAS lidar units, up 80.3% yoy.


Business update:

•Foreign market: Hesai inked four designated mass-production projects.

•China market: it obtained multiple designated orders for new vehicle models slated to launch in 2025E.

•Global market: the company secured designated ADAS lidar mass-production orders from 19 OEMs for more than 70 vehicle model versions as of 24Q2.


海外市場方面: 1)已獲得四家知名全球OEM的量產定點,其中包括三家全球OEM在中國的合資企業(兩家北美,一家歐洲)。此外,公司還被一家全球汽車OEM選中用於其全球交付計劃,目前正推進B樣品的交付。2)獲得兩家歐洲領先OEM廠商的新POC項目訂單。


國內市場方面: 1)自動駕駛領域,被中國所有前五大Robotaxi公司選爲其自動駕駛車輛的獨家長距離激光雷達供應商,包括百度。2)獲得一系列將在25年開始推出的新車型量產定點,其中包括一家新客戶的暢銷電動車製造商的旗艦車型(目前月銷1.5萬臺),以及來自現有客戶的多個新車型和改款車型。3)在新量產定點中,一家中國電動車製造商與公司簽署協議,計劃在其所有計劃於25年發佈的新車型中獨家採用公司下一代L3超高性能激光雷達。


Production projects: partnerships in both Chinese and foreign markets

Foreign market:

•Hesai secured designated mass-production projects from four well-known global OEMs, three of which have JVs with Chinese companies (two North American and one European).

•A global automotive OEM selected Hesai for its global shipping program and the project is currently moving toward the delivery of B-samples.

•The company has new project orders (with purchase order confirmations) from two leading European OEMs.


China market:

•Autonomous driving: Hesai has been designated exclusive lidar supplier for long-range autonomous vehicles for China’s top five robotaxi companies, including Baidu.

•Mass-production orders: it clinched a series of designated orders for new vehicle models slated to begin rolling out in 2025E, including a flagship model from a new customer, a best-selling electric vehicle (EV) maker whose current sales are at 15,000 cars per month. Hesai also has several orders for new models and refreshed model versions from current customers.

•New designated production contract: Hesai inked an exclusive deal with a Chinese EV manufacturer that will adopt its next-generation ultra-high-performance lidar for level-3 (L3) autonomous driving in all its new models to be released in 2025E.


公司預計25年和26年會有非常強勁和穩固的訂單pipeline,目前已看到兩個趨勢: 1)ATX產品在國內OEM中引起興趣,產品已獲得了七家OEM的定點。2)國內OEM在朝着L3標準發展。因此要求ADAS 激光雷達提供更好的性能。一家電動車製造商已經與公司簽訂協議,將採用公司下一代超高性能ADAS激光雷達,用於其計劃在2025年量產的所有新車型。


後續展望: 收入方面,公司預計24Q3的收入將在4.5 - 5億元之間,同比增長約1.0%至12.2%。交付量方面,公司預計24H2出貨量將在30-35萬臺,主要由於某些客戶一些車型的發佈時間推遲至明年初。


Order pipeline: Hesai expects a solid order book in 2025E and 2026E

The company marks two major market trends:

•ATX products have won the notice of Chinese OEMs and become designated products of seven OEMs.

•L3 penetration in China: with Chinese OEMs advancing toward L3 autonomous driving, ADAS lidar would require better performance. Hesai signed a deal with an EV manufacturer to adopt its next-generation ultra-high-performance ADAS lidar for all of the EV maker’s new mass-production models planned to launch in 2025E.


Q3E and H2E guidance:

•Q3E revenue: Hesai expects a range of RMB450m-500m, which would mean a yoy increase of 1.0-12.2%.

•H2E shipments: the company expects 300,000-350,000 units, due to the postponed release of some customers’ models to early next year.



投資建議/Investment Ideas


投資建議: 禾賽有望顯著受益於自動駕駛行業發展下L2+/L3滲透率提升,目前中國市場激光雷達進一步滲透至15萬元左右的車型。本季度公司看到國內OEM對於下一代激光雷達產品需求積極。我們看好禾賽領先的技術/工程能力和已驗證的大規模交付能力,以及更多OEM合作及相關車型發佈。建議關注禾賽科技。


Forecasts and risks

We expect Hesai will benefit substantially from rising penetration of L2+ and L3 autonomous driving systems as the industry continues to develop. Currently, lidar models priced around RMB150,000 have penetrated the Chinese market. The company has benefited from Chinese OEM demand for next-generation lidar in the quarter. We are bullish about Hesai’s leading technological and engineering capabilities and large-scale deliveries. We expect to see more OEM collaborations in view of their new model launches. We forecast revenue will arrive at RMB1.88bn/2.02bn/3.29bn in 2024/25/26E. We maintain our BUY rating.


風險提示: 行業競爭加劇;L2+/L3滲透率不及預期;公司經營風險。


Risks include: intensifying competition; slower-than-expected penetration of L2+ and L3 systems; and operating risks.



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