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李寧: 聚焦穩健運營

天风国际  · 公众号  ·  · 2024-08-29 18:02

正文

Li Ning

(2331 HK)


聚焦穩健運營


H1E net profit slipped 8% on business pressures; we would maintain focus on the company’s sturdy operations

BUY (maintain)


投資要點/Investment Thesis

投資要点/Investment Thesis

李寧發佈2024H1中期業績報告

24H1收入143.45億元,同增2.3%;歸母淨利潤19.52億元,同減8.0%。2024年上半年,中國經濟展現出有序的復甦態勢,國家政策利好持續爲市場注入活力。國民健康意識不斷提升,伴隨多項國際性及國家級體育賽事的到來,催化了民衆運動熱情。同時,公司通過持續的研發投入和科技創新,不斷推動產品力的升級,實現上半年營收正增長。


收入分產品, 24H1鞋類78.44億,同增4.4%,佔54.7%;服裝53.75億,同減4.7%,佔比37.5%,同減2.7pct;器材及配件11.26億,同增30.3%,佔比7.8%,同增1.6pct。


收入分渠道, 24H1批發65.99億,同減2.0%,佔比46.0%,同減2.0pct,直營35.0億,同增2.7%,佔比24.4%,同增0.1pct;電商40.0億,同增11.4%,佔比27.9%,同增2.3pct。


24H1E results: revenue up 2% yoy, net profit down 8% yoy on business pressures

Top and bottom lines: Li Ning released unaudited financial results for 24H1E with revenue at RMB14.35bn, up 2.3% yoy, and net profit at RMB1.95bn, down 8.0% yoy.


Key takeaways: Li Ning says it nudged up revenue growth in H1E through product upgrades, although heavier expenses dragged net profit growth. The company believes national policies stimulated market activity and helped pace China’s economic recovery. A number of international and national sporting events in the first 6 months of 2024 spurred consumer engagement on rising health awareness among Chinese people. We take a closer look at segmental revenue contributions in H1E:


Product revenue breakdown:

•Footwear generated RMB7.84bn in the first-half of the year, up 4.4% yoy and accounting for 54.7% of total revenue.

•Apparel drew revenue of RMB5.38bn, down 4.7% yoy and comprising 37.5% of the total, 2.7ppt yoy lower in revenue proportion.

•Equipment and accessories came to RMB1.126bn, up 30.3% yoy and accounting for 7.8% of total revenue, 1.6ppt yoy more in revenue proportion.


Channel revenue breakdown:

•Wholesale business generated RMB6.60bn in 24H1E, down 2.0% yoy and comprising 46.0% of total revenue, down 2.0ppt yoy.

•Direct sales amounted to RMB3.50bn, up 2.7% yoy and accounting for 24.4% of the total, 0.1ppt higher yoy.

•Ecommerce was RMB4.00bn, up 11.4%, and 27.9% of the total, 2.3ppt more yoy.


Margin analysis: gross margin expanded 1.6ppt to 50.4% in 24H1, but net margin shrank 1.5ppt yoy to 13.6%. Li Ning attributes the wider gross margin to better new product discounting and a yoy bigger share of higher-gross-margin products in the direct sales channels, as well as lower inventory provisions yoy.


24Q2公司全渠道零售流水同減低單。分渠道,線下(包括零售及批發)同減中單,其中零售基本持平,批發同減高單位數;電商同增高單位數。


從門店數量看 ,截至24H1公司主品牌在國內共6239家,較24Q1淨增加25家,24H1淨減少1家。在淨減少的1家中,零售淨減少3家,批發淨增加2家。截至24H1國內李寧YOUNG共1438家,較24Q1淨增加33家,24H1淨增加10家。


公司營運能力方面 ,24H1公司存貨23.13億,同增9.1%,較年底減少7.2%,其中6個月及以下的新品佔比83%,同減4pct;平均存貨週轉天數62天,較23H1增加5天;經營現金流27.30億同增40.6%;現金循環週期31天,較23H1增加1天。


24H1公司毛利率爲50.4%,同增1.6pct;歸母淨利率爲13.6%,同減1.5pct。


公司毛利率增長主要系新品折扣改善;毛利率較高的直營渠道收入佔比同比上升; 以及存貨撥備計提較去年同期減少。


Q2E operational update: channel, store network and business capacity changes

Channel perspectives:

•Omnichannel retail turnover fell at a low-single-digit yoy in 24Q2E.

•Offline retail and wholesale sales fell by a mid-single-digit yoy: retail sales showed flat growth, while wholesale sales fell by a high-single-digit yoy.

•Ecommerce grew by a high-single-digit yoy.


Store network:

•Li Ning branded stores numbered 6,239 (excluding Li Ning Young) across China as of end-Q2: after net adding 25 vs end-Q1 and net decrease 1 vs beginning-Q1 (ie it closed 3 retail and added 2 wholesale outlets).

•Li Ning Young had 1,438 stores across China as of end-Q2: net adding 33 qoq and net adding 10 POS yoy.


Operational capacities:

•Inventory value amounted to RMB2.31bn at end-June, up 9.1% yoy, and down 7.2% vs end-2023. Of this, 83% were new products of 6 months or less, 4ppt lower yoy.

•Inventory turnover time averaged 62 days, 5 days longer than a year ago.

•Operating cash flow was RMB2.73bn, up 40.6% yoy.

•Cash conversion cycle was 31 days in H1, 1 day more yoy.


研發創新賦能產品實力,科技進步驅動未來成長

經過多年的投入和積累,公司在科技創新方面已形成系統化、平臺化的實力,圍繞運動科技應用,公司已擁有成熟的運動品類擴容、品類產品矩陣化、以及產品系列迭代三大能力,成爲企業經營發展的核心競爭力。


公司利用鞋類前沿科技,全面推動全品類產品更新換代。公司最新引入的5D功能立體版型技術與ATC自適應溫控科技,爲跑步、籃球及健身等服裝面料帶來革命性的舒適度改善。公司加快金屬3D打印技術在鞋產品生產過程中的使用,大大提升產品精細度和質感。該技術的使用率到2025年預計將達到60-70%。


R&D-led innovations sustain product strength; tech advances lead future growth

Core competencies: Li Ning has carved out systematic and platform-driven capabilities in technological innovations after years of investment and resource building. Its three core competencies have matured and entrenched the company’s competitive positioning: (1) sports category expansion; (2) product mix optimization; and (3) product collection iteration.


Tech upgrades: the company uses cutting-edge footwear technology to comprehensively upgrade all of its product categories. Its recently unveiled 5D solid functionalities and adaptive temperature control (ATC) technology is said to add next-level comfort to the fabrics deployed in its running, basketball and fitness products. Li Ning used 3D metal printing technology in footwear production to refine product textures. The company expects to reach 60-70% deployment of the technology by 2025E.


專注“單品牌、多品類、多渠道”策略,積極佈局全局營銷

公司繼續專注於跑步、籃球、羽毛球、健身和運動生活五大核心品類,持續在運動科技創新方面發力,同時亦積極與運動潮流文化接軌,推出兼具科技與時尚屬性的運動產品,不斷增強產品的核心競爭力。此外,公司積極佈局全域營銷,加強消費者對公司產品的認知,不斷提升品牌影響力,擴大消費者基礎。公司上半年增加了在市場推廣、產品宣傳方面的投入,尤其是在更受消費者歡迎的直播渠道方面增加更多內容推廣以挖掘潛在消費者,廣告及市場推廣開支有所增加。


Global marketing push for bestsellers-product diversity-omnichannel strategy

Tech and fashion appeal: Li Ning says it will keep directing technological innovation efforts at five core sporting business categories: running, basketball, badminton, fitness and a sporting lifestyle. Integrating advanced technology with fashionable attributes, the company would keep launching sports products that interpret a trendy sports culture,  honing the company’s core competitive edge.


Global marketing: global marketing efforts raise consumer awareness of Li Ning’s products and expand its brand profile to widen its consumer base. It plowed more investments into marketing and product promotions in H1, particularly in the more popular livestream channels. It also increased promotional content to tap potential consumer markets, while increasing advertising and marketing expenses.



投資建議/Investment Ideas


調整盈利預測,維持買入評級

公司聚焦“單品牌、多品類、多渠道”策略,持續研發創新,打造產品核心競爭力,進一步提升渠道效率,積極佈局全局營銷。基於半年報,公司經營環境承壓,24H1線上及線下渠道整體流水同比低單位數減少,以及歸母淨利潤率不及23年同期,我們小幅調整公司盈利預測。


我們預計24-26年公司收入分別爲290億人民幣、312億人民幣、344億人民幣(原值爲293億人民幣、321億人民幣、350億人民幣);歸母淨利分別爲31.9億人民幣、34.4億人民幣、37.9億人民幣(原值爲34億人民幣、39億人民幣、44億人民幣);EPS分別爲1.23人民幣/股、1.33人民幣/股、1.47人民幣/股(原值爲1.3人民幣/股、1.5人民幣/股、1.7人民幣/股;對應PE分別爲10X、9X、8X。


Valuation and risks

Li Ning plans to keep developing and innovating its products to sharpen its core competitive edge under a “bestsellers, diverse categories and omnichannel” strategy. At the same time, it will keep building out a global marketing network to improve channel efficiency. Li Ning’s operations were dragged by business pressures in 24H1E, which reduced O2O channel turnover by a low single digit yoy and led net margin to slip yoy. Hence, we tweak downward our forecast and expect revenue will come in RMB29.0bn/ 31.2bn/34.4bn in 2024/25/26E (previously RMB29.3bn/32.1bn/35.0bn) and net profit at RMB3.19bn/3.44bn/3.79bn (previously RMB3.40bn/3.90bn/4.40bn). Our EPS moves to RMB1.23/1.33/1.47 (previously RMB1.30/1.50/1.70) with PE at 10x/9x/8x. We maintain our BUY rating.


風險提示: 原材料及人工價格波動、環保要求穩步提升影響公司毛利;新品銷量不及預期;渠道鋪設及市場滲透不及預期;行業競爭格局激化等。


Risks include: gross profit impacted by fluctuating raw material prices and staff costs, as well as stricter environmental protection requirements; weaker-than-expected new product sales; worse-than-expected channel buildout and market penetration; and intensifying competition.



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