【中金科技】云米科技（VIOT.US）：上调目标价至12美元；2021年毛利率有望从疫情中复苏

科技硬件FLAG · 公众号 · · 2021-03-29 10:41

正文

4Q20 revenue broadly in line; non-GAAP NP beats our forecast

4Q20 revenue rose 8.5% YoY to Rmb1.89bn; non-GAAP net profit rose 15% YoY to Rmb115.5mn. The revenue is broadly in line our forecast, and non-GAAP net profit beat our forecast by 28%.

We think the biggest positive surprise for this result is VIOT’s GPM in 4Q20 recoveredto 23.5% (up 3.6ppt YoY and 6.4ppt QoQ), the highest level since 3Q19. We believe this GPM recovery is mainly due to the better contribution from high margin products such as robot vacuum cleaners and the Viomi-branded waterpurification system.

Trends to watch

IoT @Home products (Smart kitchen products and others) expand to more countries. In 4Q20, VIOT’s IoT @Home portfolio increased by 15.7% to Rmb1.1bn, driven by growth of both sweeping robots and Viomi-branded new products. During the firm’s analyst briefing, VIOT pointed out its sweeping robot and Viomi-branded new products achieved good feedback from customers. We raise our 2021 revenue forecast of IoT @Home products by 10% to Rmb5,466mn, as well as 2021 GM by 1.2ppt, as we believe company will benefit from the strong growth in new products (with higher margin), and the market may expand from the Chinese mainland to overseas.

Strong ASP in Viomi-branded water purifier to mitigate weakness in Xiaomi-branded products. In 4Q20, Viomi reported a 5.9% YoY decline in water purification system sales, mainly due to the decrease in ASP of the Xiaomi-branded water purification system. This was partially offset by the successful introduction and increased sales of a new series of Viomi-branded water purifier products, which narrowed the YoY decline for home water solutions compared to previous quarters (32% YoY decline in3Q20). We believe the new Viomi-branded water purifier may partially mitigate the GPM decrease, thus we still expect the smart water purification revenue in 2021 will increased by 20% on a YoY basis.

Financials and valuation

We raise our 2021 non-GAAP net profit forecast 11% to Rmb331mn and introduce our 2022non-GAAP net profit forecast at Rmb476mn, representing 49% YoY and 56.4% YoY growth, as we expect a GPM recovery from COVID-19 may strengthen the company’searnings growth in 2021 and 2022. The stock is trading at 14.6x 2021 and 10.2x 2022 P/E (non-GAAP). We maintain OUTPERFORM and raise our TP by 50.0% to US$12.00 (16.9x 2021 non-GAAP P/E and 11.7x 2022 non-GAAP P/E) for the future GPM recovery and potential IoT @Home valuation increase, offering 15.4% upside.

Risks : COVID-19 impact; intensified competition in water purifier industry.

Figure 1: Results review and earnings forecast revisions