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億航智能: 全球eVTOL龍頭,商業化進程有望持續加速

天风国际  · 公众号  ·  · 2024-04-22 18:03

正文

EHang Holdings

(EH US)


全球eVTOL龍頭,商業化進程有望持續加速


Initiating coverage: global leader in autonomous eVTOLs accelerates toward commercial rollout


BUY (Initiation)


投資要點/Investment Thesis

投资要点/Investment Thesis

億航智能:全球領先的無人駕駛eVTOL飛行器企業

億航智能是一家全球領先的城市空中交通科技企業,成立於2014年,2019年12月在美國納斯達克交易所上市。公司設計、開發、製造、銷售和運營無人駕駛航空器及其配套系統,爲全球多個行業領域客戶提供各種無人駕駛航空器產品和解決方案,其產品和解決方案廣泛應用於各行各業,包括載人交通、物流、智慧城市管理等。公司全系航空器均爲無人駕駛,是億航智能區分於其他國內外eVTOL同行企業的核心優勢,與無人駕駛配套的空中交通管理機制的建立有利於築就寬廣的護城河。全冗餘備份設計保障飛行安全,配備地面端指揮調度系統可以保障大規模運行的安全。


EHang has the edge in unmanned eVTOL craft; air traffic solutions form barrier

Established in 2014 and listed on Nasdaq in 2019, EHang Holdings is among global industry frontrunners in urban air transportation technology. It designs and develops, as well as manufactures, sells and operates unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV) and their support systems for global customers in a variety of industries. EHang also covers manned transportation, logistics and smart city management systems. In terms of aircraft, the company produces only unmanned ones, which is its key competitive edge against global peers in the electric vertical take-off and landing (eVTOL) aircraft market. EHang set up an air traffic management mechanism for unmanned flights with safety protocols such as a full redundancy data backup system, while its ground command and dispatch scheduling mechanism would ensure safety in large-scale operations. We believe these mechanisms erect a competitive barrier for EHang’s business.


從收入分類上來看,公司主要分爲三塊業務:空中交通解決方案。 目前主要收入來自EH216 系列無人駕駛電動垂直起降(eVTOL)航空器的銷售收入。未來正式商業運營後,預計還將產生航空器維護、維修、航材更換等相關服務的收入,以及提供飛行運營服務的收入。智慧城市管理解決方案。主要包括:1)智慧城市飛行指揮調度系統及相關設施的設計與開發;2)小型無人機及其他相關產品的銷售與服務。空中媒體解決方案。包括輕型空中媒體無人駕駛飛行器或組件包、相關軟件的銷售、維護和培訓服務等。


Revenue model: air transportation, smart city management and aerial media

Air transport solutions: currently, EHang’s main revenue stream is the production of its EH216 series of autonomous eVTOL aircraft. After the company formally launches commercial operations in the future, we expect the business could expand into aircraft maintenance, repair, material replacement and related services, as well as flight operation services.


Smart city and aerial media solutions:

•Design and development of smart city flight command and dispatch systems and related facilities;

•Drones and related product sales and services;

•Aerial media solutions: sales, maintenance and training service media using lightweight aircraft or UAVs, along with component package and related software.


eVTOL行業:應用場景多元,市場空間廣闊

電動垂直起降航空器,即eVTOL(Electric Vertical Take-Off and Landing)是指以電力作爲飛行動力來源且具備垂直起降功能的飛行器,具有垂直起降、智能操作、快捷機動、低成本、低噪音、零排放、易維護、高安全等特點,與傳統飛行器相比,安全性、智能性、經濟性和環保性的優勢顯著,可使人和貨物以無縫、經濟的方式在城市低空快速流動與靈活作業,能高效開發城市低空空域資源,有效緩解日益嚴重的城市地面交通擁堵問題。


eVTOLs: diverse range of application scenarios in a potentially large market

Low-altitude travel market: in addition to their vertical take-off and landing feats, eVTOLs use electricity to power their flight. Other specifications include smart operations, fast maneuverability, low cost, low noise, zero emissions, easy maintenance and high safety. Thus, they stack up favorably next to traditional aircraft in terms of safety, intelligence, economy and environmental protection. Not only can they move people and goods quickly, but their operational flexibility for seamless and economical low-altitude city flights implies the potential development of efficient low-altitude urban airspace resources, which could effectively alleviate the increasingly serious problem of ground-level traffic congestion.


根據全球調研機構Verified Market Research報告,全球eVTOL飛機市場規模預計將從2023年的156.4億美元增長至2030年的349.3億美元,CAGR爲12.2%。粵港澳大灣區數字經濟研究院(IDEA)近期發佈的低空經濟白皮書顯示,到2025年,低空經濟對中國國民經濟的綜合貢獻值將達3萬億至5萬億元。


USD35bn eVTOL market by 2030E: the global eVTOL aircraft market could expand from USD15.64bn in 2023 to USD34.93bn in 2030E, a CAGR of 12.2%, according to global research house Verified Market Research. For China, the low-altitude market could contribute RMB3-5tr to the country’s economy by 2025E, based on data in a white paper on the low-altitude economy recently released by the International Digital Economy Academy (IDEA).


成長邏輯:先發優勢下訂單儲備充足,商業化有望加速

獲得無人駕駛eVTOL行業首張TC和AC,先發優勢顯著。2023年10月13日,公司自主研發的EH216-S無人駕駛載人航空器系統獲得中國民航局頒發的型號合格證 (TC),代表着EH216-S具備無人駕駛航空器載人商業運營的資格。2023年12月21日,EH216-S獲得由中國民航局頒發的標準適航證(AC),並正式交付給客戶。我們認爲世界首個無人駕駛電動垂直起降航空器型號合格認證和標準適航證的落地或爲中國乃至全球創新型eVTOL的適航認證樹立重要標杆,代表着eVTOL行業商業化運營的里程碑,公司業務發展或持續加速,未來可期。


Commercialization up ahead: certified eVTOL first mover; full order book

Global milestone: EHang was the first to obtain the Civil Aviation Administration of China’s type certificate (TC), airworthiness certificate (AC) and production certificate (PC) in the autonomous eVTOL industry, giving it a valuable first-mover advantage. Its proprietary-tech EH216-S autonomous aircraft obtained the TC on 13 Oct 2023, qualifying it for commercial operations with a manned crew, and went on to obtain a standard AC on 21 Dec 2023, which paved the way for the aircraft to be delivered to customers. In a great leap, EHang gained the PC on 7 April 2024, which opens the way to mass production and deliveries, and greatly boosts its progress toward the mass rollout of its low-altitude tourism business, currently piloted in cities like Shenzhen, Guangzhou and Hefei. We believe these projects help EHang gain global market recognition, which could drive a substantial uptrend in order and delivery numbers. Further, we believe these unmanned eVTOL certifications are the first of their kind in the world, by which EHang sets key benchmarks for eVTOL innovations in China and even the world. They represent a milestone for eVTOL commercial operations in the industry. We anticipate EHang’s business development will accelerate and take off in due time.


訂單儲備充足,海內外市場同步推進。 億航目前預訂單儲備較爲充足,亞洲市場海內外累計約500架,且在完成適航認證後陸續收穫新增批量訂單,目前訂單客戶國內包括西域旅遊、深圳博領、合肥市政府等,海外包括阿聯酋Ethmar集團旗下的Wings Logistics Hub、日本AirX、印度尼西亞Prestige Aviation等。我們認爲若億航下一步取得中國民航局頒發的生產許可證(PC)開展批量生產交付,並在深圳、廣州、合肥等低空經濟示範城市低空旅遊業務的落地,億航市場認可度可能獲得大幅加強,訂單數量和交付量或將迎來大幅增長。


Full order book for EH216-S: the company’s Chinese and foreign markets are both growing in tandem with its order book filled with advance orders for about 500 of the autonomous passenger aircraft from Asia and beyond, and added new batch orders after obtaining the AC. Chinese customers currently include Xiyu Tourism, Shenzhen Boling and Hefei Municipal Government, while foreign customers include Wings Logistics Hub (under the UAE’s Ethmar Group), Japan’s AirX and Indonesia’s Prestige Aviation.


獲地方政府合作支持,業務前景明朗。 2023年7月,億航與深圳市寶安區政府就EH216-S取證後UAM運營簽署戰略合作備忘錄,雙方共同探索UAM應用場景,將深圳打造成全國低空經濟發展示範城市。2023年12月,位於深圳歡樂港灣的UAM運營示範中心建成啓動,億航將在此推出EH216-S自動駕駛飛行器的空中旅遊和觀光體驗服務,億航與寶安交通集團達成合作意向,雙方將攜手打造低空經濟運營示範場景。2023年10月,億航宣佈與合肥市人民政府簽署戰略合作協議,在安徽省合肥市共同打造“低空經濟”產業生態。合肥市政府計劃爲億航提供總價值爲1億美元的各項支持,包括協調或促進不少於100架EH216系列無人駕駛航空器的採購訂單,以及資金支持。


Pacts with local governments lay the ground for healthy future growth

Shenzhen: the city’s Baoan District government signed a strategic cooperation memorandum with EHang on urban air mobility (UAM) operations in July 2023, which takes effect after EH216-S obtained its certifications. Both parties will jointly explore UAM application scenarios and establish Shenzhen as a pilot city for national low-altitude economic development. The UAM Operation Demonstration Center at Shenzhen’s Happy Harbor was launched in December 2023, and EHang will roll out air travel and sightseeing services using the EH216-S here. EHang and Baoan Transportation Group have stated cooperation intentions and will work together to create low-altitude economic operation pilot scenarios.


Hefei: EHang has announced it had signed a strategic cooperation agreement with the Hefei municipal government to jointly create a low-altitude economy industrial ecosystem in Hefei, Anhui Province. The Hefei government will provide EHang with various forms of support amounting to USD100m, including coordinating or facilitating purchase orders for at least 100 EH216 series aircraft, as well as monetary support.




投資建議/Investment Ideas


投資建議: 我們預計公司2024-2026年的營收分別爲4.6/8.8/11.4億元,同比增長293%/93%/30%,給予公司2025年10-15倍PS,對應目標價19.7-29.8美元,首次覆蓋,給予“買入”評級。


Valuation and risks

We forecast EHang will generate revenues of RMB460m/880m/1.14bn in 2024/25/26E, up 293%/93%/30%. We assign to the stock a 10-15x PS in 2025E, implying a target price range of USD19.7-29.8. We initiate coverage with a BUY rating.


風險提示: eVTOL 行業政策落地不及預期;eVTOL技術發展不及預期;eVTOL 商業化進展不及預期;生產能力限制與供應鏈風險影響產品交付;業務增長速度不及預期;測算具有一定主觀性,僅供參考。


Risks include: worse-than-expected eVTOL industry policy implementation; worse-than-expected eVTOL technology development; slower-than-expected eVTOL pace to commercialization; limited production capacities and supply chain risks could affect product deliveries; and slower-than-expected business growth. Note: estimates are subjective and for reference only.


Email: [email protected]

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