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That’s the contention of researchers at Harvard Business School, who find, in two separate sectors of the economy, that
the combination
（of rapid credit growth and asset-price gains
during the prior three years
）
is associated with
a 40 percent probability of entering a financial crisis within the next three years.
这就是哈佛商学院研究人员的观点，他们发现，在经济两个不同的部门里，如果前三年里贷款快速增长且资产价格上涨，会有40%的可能性导致后三年发生金融危机。
游戏驿站股价逼空事件被外界称作散户战胜华尔街空头的史诗级博弈，然而，在1月28日围绕“游戏驿站”的股价出现了白热化争夺战，当天该股盘中曾17次熔断，暴涨暴跌交替。当日“游戏驿站”收盘价暴跌了43.18%，跌至197.44美元。至今，围绕该股票的大规模买入、抛售仍在继续。
Much has been written about whether the GameStop trading fiasco is the result of illegal flash
mobs
or righteous retail investors
storming
a
rigged
financial system. Robinhood’s decision to block its retail customers from purchasing the stock while
hedge funds
continued trading elsewhere has turned the event into a David and Goliath story.
关于游戏驿站交易惨剧到底是非法快闪族导致的，还是正义的散户投资者冲击受操纵的金融系统导致的，已经有太多文章讨论。罗宾汉（线上券商交易公司）决定禁止其散户客户购买该股票，而对冲基金在其他地方继续交易，这使整件事变成了一个“大卫对抗歌利亚”的故事。
But that story is predicated on a false idea, which is that markets that have been “democratised” and that people trading on their phones somehow represent a more inclusive capitalism.They do not. Markets and democracy are not the same thing, although most politicians — Democrats and Republicans — have acted since the 1980s as if they were.
但这种描述方式建立在一个错误的观念上，即市场已经“民主化”，
人们在手机上交易某种程度上代表了一种更具包容性的资本主义。并不是这样的。市场和民主完全是两码事，尽管自上世纪80年代以来，多数政客——无论是民主党人还是共和党人——的所作所为让人们认为这似乎是一回事。
That period was marked by market deregulation, greater central bank intervention to
smooth out
the business cycle via monetary policy following the end of the Bretton Woods exchange rate system, and the rise of shareholder capitalism.
This combined to begin moving the American economy from one in which prosperity was based on secure employment and income growth, to one in which companies and many consumers focused increasingly on ever-rising asset prices as the most important measure of economic health.
那个时期的特点是市场管制放松，在布雷顿森林汇率制度结束、股东制资本主义兴起之后，中央银行通过货币政策加大平滑经济周期的干预力度。
翻译划线句，长按文末小程序码打卡，答案下期公布~
Right now, short-term fiscal stimulus aimed at easing the economic pain from Covid-19 is distorting the picture. But putting that aside, the US economy is at a point where capital gains and distributions from individual retirement accounts make up such a large proportion of personal consumption expenditure that it would be difficult for growth to continue if there were a major correction in asset prices.
目前，意图缓解新冠肺炎导致的经济阵痛的短期财政刺激正在扭曲形势。但这件事暂且不谈，美国经济目前的状况是，个人退休账户的资本利得和发的钱在个人消费支出中占的比例非常大，如果资产价格出现重大调整，美国经济将难以持续增长。
That is one reason why the GameStop story has so unnerved people. It reminds Americans how incredibly dependent we all are on markets that can be very, very volatile. The transformation of markets put more short-term pressure on companies, which cut costs by
outsourcing
, automating, using less union labour and
dumping
defined benefit pensions for 401k plans, which put responsibility for choosing investments, and the risks of bad outcomes, on individual workers.
这就是游戏驿站事件为什么让人们感到这么不安的原因。它提醒了美国人，我们所有人对市场的依赖程度是多么大，而市场又极其不稳定。市场的转变给公司带来了更多的短期压力，公司通过外包、自动化、减少使用工会劳动力以及将固定福利养老金甩给401k计划（
一种完全基金式的养老保险制度
）来削减成本，而401k计划把选择投资的责任以及不良后果的风险让工人个人承担。
本文节选自：Financial Times（金融时报）
发布时间：2021.02.09
作者：Rana Foroohar
原文标题：The biggest lesson of GameStop
