【经济学人】农民的危机丨2017.03.30丨总第858期

THE farm crisis in the 1980s left a deep mark on the Midwest. It was the worst downturn in farming since the Depression. After an unprecedented boom in demand for wheat ended, thousands of farmers faced ruin. Agricultural banks and makers of farming equipment were washed away by a wave of bankruptcies. Midwestern farmers look at parallels with the 1980s whenever their cyclical industry is heading downwards. Prices for corn, wheat and other agricultural commodities started to fall after their peak in 2013, since when the comparison has been raised again.

上世纪八十年代发生的农业危及给美国中西部留下了不可磨灭的烙印，这是大萧条期以来最为严重的下滑。在前所未有的小麦黄金期结束后，成千上万的农民开始遭殃。农业银行和农耕设备制造商被一波又一波的破产所拖垮。中西部的农民开始把现在所遭遇的情况和上世纪八十年代所遭遇的周期性行业持续下滑进行类比。在2013年玉米价格、小麦价格以及其他农产品价格达到顶峰后，所有产品的价格开始下滑，就从此时起，历史仿佛重演一般。

Exports of wheat and soyabeans nearly tripled in the 1970s, thanks to the weakness of the dollar after America abandoned the gold standard in 1971, and the Russian wheat deal in 1972, when America sold the Soviet Union about 440m bushels of wheat for around $700m. Until then the Soviets had imported hardly any American foodstuffs. The sudden bonanza was such that farmers bought more and more land, with more and more debt. This went well until interest rates jumped up, the dollar strengthened and exports to the USSR were halted after the invasion of Afghanistan. Farmers’ biggest asset, land, dropped in value, which in turn increased their liabilities until they became so big that they could not stay in business.

在1971年美国废除了金本位，同时于1972年结束了与前苏联每年约4.4亿蒲式耳市值7亿美元的小麦交易后，美元开始贬值，这促使了小麦和黄豆的出口量在70年代猛增三倍。在那时之前，苏联几乎没有进口过任何美国食品。农民用贷款的方式购买了越来越多的土地，这带来了出乎意料的好处。在利率上升之前，这一切发展得很顺利，美元开始变得强势，在入侵阿富汗后，美国对前苏联的出口被禁止。农民最宝贵的财富，也就是土地开始贬值，农民的债务也相对增加了，最终债台高筑不得不破产。

The latest farming boom started in 2006, when demand for crops such as maize (corn), sugar cane and soyabeans generated record profits thanks to demand for (maize and sugar-based) ethanol, and the then skyrocketing Chinese economy. American farmers again started to farm more land. They also used more yield-boosting technology—as did farmers in other parts of the world. A record 179m productive acres were brought in worldwide since 2006, says Dan Basse at AgResource, a research firm. Things started to turn sour after a year of record profits in 2013, when the rapidly growing global supply of grains outstripped demand, the appetite for ethanol stagnated and the Chinese economy slowed down.（读者试译句）American net farm revenue dropped from $120 billion in 2013 to an estimated $62 billion this year.

最近的农业兴起开始于2006年，此时对诸如玉米、甘蔗和大豆等农作物的需求产生了巨额的利润，这是因为人对由玉米和糖制造的乙醇需求增加以及中国经济的快速增长所带来的影响。美国农民又一次开始大面积耕种。他们也使用了更多增加产量的科技，就像世界各地的农民所做的一样。来自一家名为AgResource的研究公司的Dan Basse表示，自从2006年起，全世界卖出了创纪录的17.9亩的耕地。期待您的翻译，明天会有针对这句话的长难句解析哦。美国农业净收入从2013年的1200亿美元预计下跌到今年的620亿美元。

• Skyrocketing：突升，猛涨

But unlike the previous big crisis, the balance-sheets of many farmers are robust. Moreover, interest rates are still low and demand remains steady even if it isn’t growing much any more. And although the values for farmland dropped last year for only the second time since the 1980s, these drops were far less dramatic than they were back then: the value of land in Indiana, for instance, fell nearly 60% between 1981 and 1986. “This boom was not as strong and we don’t anticipate this crisis to be as severe as in the 1980s,” says Christopher Hurt at Indiana’s Purdue University.

但是，与之前危及不同的是，许多农民的收支平衡表依然稳健。而且，利率依然很低并且人们对农产品需求依然稳定，即便没有更多的增长。尽管去年农田的价值发生了自八十年来以来的第二次下跌，但下跌幅度比起过去来看是微乎其微的。例如，在印第安纳州的土地在1981年到1986年之间下滑了近乎60%。印第安纳州普渡大学的Christopher Hurt表示，“这次的农业兴起没有之前的强势，所以我们认为这次危机也不会像80年代那样严重。” 

Even so, farmers have reason to be anxious. The two things that matter most to them, weather and government policy, are unpredictable. “Monkeying around with trade deals makes us nervous,” says Brent Gloy, who farms in south-western Nebraska. America exports 20% of its farm production; its top export markets are Canada, China and Mexico.

即便如此，农民们还是有担心的理由。对农民们影响最大的两件事，即天气和政府政策，是不可预计的。来自内布拉斯加州西南部的农民Brent Gloy谈到，“和贸易政策斗智斗勇让我们很紧张。”美国出口20%的农产品，其主要出口国包括加拿大、中国和墨西哥。

Populist politics were born in a Midwestern farm-crash at the end of the 19th century. That 21st-century populism should come along at the same time as an agricultural slump is further proof of what Mark Twain knew: history rhymes.

民粹主义政治诞生于第十九世纪末中西部的一场农业危机中。第二十一世纪的民粹主义应该同时出现，因为农业的萧条进一步证明了Mark Twain所推崇的：历史规律。

翻译 ▍iron；arias

审核 ▍竞风之翼

编辑 ▍小小鱼