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【Advances in Applied Energy最新原创论文】巴黎协定下欧洲未来可再生能源供应的影响

AEii国际应用能源  · 公众号  ·  · 2023-06-26 18:30

正文

原文信息:

Implications of a Paris-proof scenario for future supply of weather-dependent variable renewable energy in Europe

原文链接:

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666792423000136

Highlights

欧洲未利用的地理潜力仍然很大。

在巴黎协定的约束下,气候对欧洲可再生能源供应的影响有限。

跨区域水平存在强烈的季节性风-光互补性。

评估了国家之间同时可再生能源匮乏的风险。

中西欧国家和波兰是欧洲范围内同时可再生能源匮乏的热点地区。

摘要

为了实现欧盟2050年的气候中性目标,未来的电力生产预计将大量依赖于可再生能源。然而,可再生能源供应受天气影响,容易受到气候条件的变化影响。本研究基于空间和时间上明确的气候数据和全面的能源转换模型,评估了欧洲可再生能源供应的预期变化,包括平均产量、产量变异性、时空互补性和同时可再生能源匮乏的风险。对于2045-2055年,我们发现与1990-2010年相比,欧洲大部分地区的平均风能和太阳能产量略有下降。在国家层面上,气候变化对平均可再生能源产量的影响相对较小(风能3%和太阳能2%以内)。可再生能源供应的其他方面的中期变化也相对较小。这表明,如果严格遵循巴黎协定的减排路径,欧洲可再生能源供应受气候影响的风险较小。通过频谱分析,我们发现跨区域水平存在强烈的季节性风-光互补性(相关系数在-0.6至-0.9之间),这降低了季节性储能的需求,但需要协调跨国努力开发泛欧洲输电基础设施。即使在铜板假设下,国家与欧洲其他地区之间同时出现可再生能源匮乏的风险仍然不容忽视。中西欧国家和波兰最容易受到这种风险的影响,因此需要规划足够的灵活性资源。


更多关于“renewable energy”的研究请见:

https://www.sciencedirect.com/search?qs=renewable%20energy&pub=Advances%20in%20Applied%20Energy&cid=777797

Abstr act

To meet the European Union's 2050 climate neutrality target, future electricity generation is expected to largely rely on variable renewable energy (VRE). VRE supply, being dependant on weather, is susceptible to changing climate conditions. Based on spatiotemporally explicit climate data under a Paris-proof climate scenario and a comprehensive energy conversion model, this study assesses the projected changes of European VRE supply from the perspective of average production, production variability, spatiotemporal complementarity, and risk of concurrent renewable energy droughts.

For the period 2045–2055, we find a minor reduction in average wind and solar production for most of Europe compared to the period 1990–2010. At the country level, the impact of climate change on average VRE production is rather limited in magnitude (within ±3% for wind and ±2% for solar). The projected mid-term changes in other aspects of VRE supply are also relatively small. This suggests climate-related impacts on European VRE supply are less of a concern if the Paris-proof emission reduction pathway is strictly followed.

Based on spectral analysis, we identify strong seasonal wind-solar complementarities (with an anticorrelation between -0.6 and -0.9) at the cross-regional level. This reduces the demand for seasonal storage but requires coordinated cross-border efforts to develop a pan-European transmission infrastructure.

The risk of concurrent renewable energy droughts between a country and the rest of Europe remains non-negligible, even under the copperplate assumption. Central Western European countries and Poland are most vulnerable to such risk, suggesting the need for the planning of adequate flexibility resources.


Keywords

Energy

Renewable energy

Climate change

Paris Agreement

Wind

Solar

Energy droughts

Dunkelflaute

Wind-solar complementarity

Cross-border

Energy system

Climate impact

Capacity factor

VRE

Energy conversion

Copula

Tail dependence

Futute climate

Europe

Spectral analysis

Power system

Fig. 1. An overview of the research method.

Fig. 8. Spatial distribution of geographic potentials of VRE assets across Europe.







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