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卓越教育集團: 業績高增,啓動成長

天风国际  · 公众号  ·  · 2024-04-17 17:48

正文

China Beststudy Education Group

(3978 HK)


業績高增,啓動成長


2023 strong earnings growth kick-starts potential uptrend


BUY (maintain)


投資要點/Investment Thesis

投資要点/Investment Thesis

發佈23年財報,業績高增

公司2023年收入4.89億元,同減0.4%;毛利2.3億元,同增32.8%,淨利0.9億元,同增66.2%;調後淨利0.89億元,同增62.8%。2023年公司全日制複習業務收入2億元,同增25.2%;輔導項目1.4億元,同減41%;素質教育1.4億,同增71.1%。2023年毛利率47%,同增11.8pct。


2023 results: revenue dipped 0.4% but net profit climbed 63% to RMB89m

Key financials: Beststudy Education Group recently released 2023 results with a 0.4% revenue dip to RMB489m; while gross profit rose 32.8% to RMB230m, net profit was up 66.2% to RMB90m, and adjusted net profit rose 62.8% to RMB89m.


Divisions: full-time revision tuition garnered revenue of RMB200m last year, rising 25.2%; tutoring projects generated RMB140m (down 41%) and non-academic learning brought in RMB140m (up 71.1%).


Profitability: gross margin widened 11.8ppt to 47% in 2023.



素質教育+職業教育+全日制齊頭並進

卓越響應政策號召,積極轉型,加快獲取「非學科營利性牌照」進度,依託近26年累計的口碑和教學教研沉澱,形成「素質教育+職業教育+全日制教育」的新格局。


卓越以數字化賦能全日制教育板塊發展,構建「卓越慧學系統」與「生命成長體系」兩大護城河。卓越聚焦於文學、科學素質等核心素養的培養,「卓越編程」、「奇趣小記者」、「思考星球」、「嘀嗒文學」、「文學美育」、「躬行實踐」、「雙語文化」、「多元思維」、「社會科學素養」等9個產品,上述產品爲廣東省首批通過教育主管部門非學科鑑定的素質類產品,爲卓越轉型提供重要保障。


Core portfolio covers non-academic, vocational and full-time study

Restructure route: Beststudy underwent a major revamp and its restructured portfolio consists of the non-academic, vocational and full-time tuition categories. In response to the Chinese policy directive, Beststudy accelerated its licensing process toward a for-profit non-academic tuition business to leverage its strengths of a durable industry reputation, as well as rich teaching and research resources amassed over 26 years.


Course content: to differentiate its business, Beststudy structured its full-time tuition business on a dual framework of smart systems and the concept of lifelong growth. Its courses inculcate literary and scientific literacy through nine subjects: Excellence in Programming, Little Journalists, Planet Thinking, TikTok Literature, Cultural Literary Aesthetics, Practical Learning, Bilingual Culture, Diverse Thinking and Social Science Literacy. These courses were among the first batch of non-academic solutions approved by the education authorities in Guangdong Province, and they set a firm foundation for Beststudy’s business restructure.



加速素質教育佈局,助力灣區業務增長

卓越的素質教育產品在粵港澳大灣區發展取得了階段性顯著成效,未來將持續推動粵港澳大灣區的行穩致遠,特別是在深圳和佛山兩個經濟活躍的大灣區城市重點佈局與拓展。


通過「校內課後素質產品」及「校外自營店」多模式覆蓋課後用戶羣體,進一步與更多中小學合作,結合自身本地化優勢、專業化服務運營體系及師訓團隊,創新利用內外部資源,完善科技、體育、藝術、人文等校內課後素質產品體系,提升教學滿意度。


同時,前瞻性佈局校外自營店,通過局部試點,打造「課後素質教育自營模型」,滿足大灣區用戶的課後素質提升需求。公司亦積極響應國家「五育融合」的理念,協助學校素質教育落地,打造素質教育特色校本課程,構建校內課後服務新格局。


繼續深化「素質教育+社區」模式,以社區爲中心輻射周邊,將多元化素質教育細分產品重組,通過「直接感知、實際操作、親身體驗」的方式發掘學生的興趣天賦,爲學生提供更多元化的選擇,打造綜合性及多品類的一站式素質教育基地,提升影響力。


Non-academic courses: new business gains traction in China’s Greater Bay Area

Greater Bay Area: Beststudy’s non-academic solutions are doing well in China’s Greater Bay Area, which consists of Guangdong province, and Hong Kong and Macau SARs. The company wants to steer sustainable and stable growth in this region by focusing its buildout and expansion on the economically vibrant cities of Shenzhen and Foshan.


School collabs: under its multimodal coverage of afterschool users, the company offers onsite-afterschool non-academic solutions as well as off-campus courses at its directly-run centers. Beststudy stepped up cooperation with more primary and secondary schools. Its localized advantage provides a premium learning experience through professional services and trainers, innovative internal and external resources. They augment its afterschool non-academic training courses in science and technology, sports, art, humanities and other subjects.


Premium holistic learning: the company is building up a network of directly-run centers for its pilot project under its direct-business model for premium off-campus afterschool courses for premium users in the Greater Bay Area. In alignment with the national call to cover five aspects of holistic education (morality, intelligence, physique, beauty and labor training), Beststudy assists schools in implementation by creating premium school-based programs and its new afterschool services are held onsite on school grounds.


Localized advantage: its community-centric model for non-academic courses regards community as the core value that radiates to the surrounding areas. The company restructured its content to provide diverse non-academic course electives that tap students’ areas of interest, seeking to develop their talents through a process of personal perception, practical application and experience. In providing students with a diversity of learning options at its one-stop integrated multimodal centers for well-rounded education, the company’s profile has risen.



科技賦能教學體系,持續推動高質量發展

公司專注爲廣大學子提供全日制複習業務,快速開拓省內市場,夯實在華南地區競爭地位,同時努力向全國市場邁進,探索、開拓新的市場版圖。


未來將緊密跟隨全球教育的發展趨勢,致力於運用科技賦能的精準教學體系,打造集人工智能與全人教育爲一體的教學生態,從而更精準地把握學生需求,通過不斷優化的教學模式,以保障教學內容高質量輸出,加速業務板塊的發展。


Full-time courses: tech-enhanced teaching drives premium course development

Market expansion: Beststudy’s full-time revision classes cater to the mass market of college students. It is ramping up the provincial market and strengthening its competitive advantage in South China, while also attempting a shift toward the national market by mapping out new market segments.


Global advances: Beststudy aims to more accurately grasp students’ requirements by keeping abreast of global education trends, while adhering to tech-enhanced precision teaching systems to create a AI-enabled teaching ecosystem with holistic educational solutions. It aims to grow the business by constantly optimizing its teaching models to ensure quality output of its teaching content.




投資建議/Investment Ideas


上調盈利預測,維持“買入”評級

在教育創新徵途上,公司將不斷優化教育產業佈局,發揮集團既有的優勢,深入拓展與各方教育資源的交流合作,促進公司多領域、多賽道發展。同時也將創新研發教育產品,不斷提升產品質量和教學效果。


考慮到①目前行業供給減少,留存機構競爭格局改善,頭部優勢顯著,運營效率提高,有效帶動淨利率提升;②公司素質教育+職業教育+全日制齊頭並進,多元發展,並以數字化賦能;同時,卓越編程、思考星球等9個產品爲廣東省首批通過教育主管部門非學科鑑定的素質類產品,爲轉型提供重要保障;增長潛力可期,同時考慮到2023年業績,我們上調公司24-25年盈利預測並新增26年盈利預測,我們預計2024-25年收入分別爲6.9億人民幣、10.3億人民幣(原值爲6.8億人民幣、9.9億人民幣),調後淨利分別爲1.5億人民幣、2.4億人民幣(原值爲1.2億人民幣、2.3億人民幣),24-25年EPS分別爲0.17、0.29元人民幣/股。2026年收入12.8億人民幣、調後淨利3億人民幣、EPS爲0.36元人民幣/股;2024-26年PE分別爲16、10、8X。維持“買入”評級。


Valuation and risks

Summary: Beststudy aims to keep driving educational innovations and optimize its buildout in the education industry by giving full play to its advantages, expanding collaborations and cooperation with educational resources from various parties, so as to better develop its multimodal, multi-market business. It plans to innovate and develop educational solutions of high quality and that deliver teaching effectiveness.


Valuation: in valuing Beststudy, we consider two main factors:

1)Industry supply depletion: in the wake of China’s 2021 double-curbs policy, exiting training companies left behind a wider field for surviving players. Market leaders have a substantial advantage in terms of operating efficiency, which augurs well for net margin growth.

2)Beststudy’s strengths are: its focused interplay of non-academic, vocational and full-time courses; diverse development; and digitalized enablement, in our view.


In addition, the company’s nine courses, including Excellence in Programming and Planet Thinking, were among the first batch of non-academic education solutions approved by the education authorities in Guangdong Province. This is a strong endorsement of the company’s business restructure and we like its growth potential. Taking into account 2023 results, we upgrade our forecasts for 2024E and 2025E, and add new numbers for 2026E. We project revenue will arrive at RMB690m/1.03bn/1.28bn in 2024/25/26E (previously RMB680m/990m in 2024/25E) and adjusted net profit at RMB150m/240m/300m (previously RMB120m/230m in 2024/25E); EPS moves to RMB0.17/0.29/0.36, with PE at 16x/10x/8x in 2024/25/26E. We maintain our BUY rating.


風險提示: 政策風險,新業務風險,管理風險,運營成本上升風險,公司流通市值較小風險等。


Risks include: policy risks; new business risks; management risks; rising operating costs; and small-cap risks.



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