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裕元集團: 產能利用率提升,右側漸明;零售全渠道表現穩健

天风国际  · 公众号  ·  · 2024-05-29 18:01

正文

Yue Yuen Industrial Holdings

(0551 HK)


產能利用率提升,右側漸明;零售全渠道表現穩健


Q1E takeaways: better utilization; right-side trading emerging; omnichannel profitability in retail business

BUY (maintain)


投資要點/Investment Thesis

投资要点/Investment Thesis

集團發佈2024年一季度報告。

集團FY24Q1收入20.04億美元,同減4.9%;歸母淨利1.00億美元,同增96.9%; FY24Q1集團毛利率25.1%,同增1.5pct;經營溢利率7.3%,同增3.2pct。


製造業務——降本增效,產效、產能利用率提升


FY24Q1製造業務營業收入12.54億美元,同減0.1%;毛利率20.3%,同增3.4pct,主要系產能利用率的顯著提升,且靈活調度產能、降本增效有成。優化策略及產業趨勢帶動單價變化;產能利用率88%,同增16pct。


分類別,運動/戶外鞋營收9.96億美元,同減1.9%;休閒鞋及運動涼鞋營收1.53億美元,同增6.4%;鞋底、配件及其他營收1.04億,同增9.5%。


訂單能見度提高,同時訂單回溫,出貨量58.8百萬雙,同比+9.1%;公司的中長期產能佈局策略,瞄準最佳地區(如印尼及印度)爲其製造產能進行多元化配置,我們預計未來產能將逐步回升。


Q1E net profit up 97%; manufacturing gross margin up 3.4ppt on better utilization

Key metrics: Yue Yuen Industrial Holdings (YY) published unaudited 24Q1E results with revenue at USD2.00bn, down 4.9% yoy, and net profit at USD100m, up 96.9% yoy. 24Q1E total gross margin was 25.1%, up 1.5ppt yoy; and operating margin at 7.3%, up 3.2ppt yoy. The revenue streams in Q1E were as follows:


Manufacturing generated USD1.25bn revenue in Q1E, down 0.1% yoy, with gross margin rising 3.4ppt yoy to 20.3%, mainly due to higher capacity utilization at 88%, up 16ppt yoy. This was because of flexible production scheduling, cost reductions and efficiency improvements. Meanwhile, optimization measures and industry trends drove unit price changes.


Product categories:

•Sports and outdoor shoes contributed USD996m in revenue, down 1.9% yoy

•Casual shoes and sports sandals generated USD153m, up 6.4% yoy

•Soles, accessories and other products brought in USD104m, up 9.5% yoy.


Orders warmed up in Q1E on improving order visibility, as the company shipped 58.8m pairs of footwear, rising 9.1% yoy. YY’s mid-to-long-term production capacity buildout strategy aims to diversify manufacturing capacities in its most lucrative markets (Indonesia and India). We expect production capacities will recover in the future.



零售業務——多維度營運矩陣帶動成長,全渠道表現穩健


FY24Q1寶勝營業收入54.00億元,同減7.5%;毛利率33.2%(23H1爲33.5%),高毛利直營渠道表現弱,但折扣同比改善低單位數並按季持續改善中,大幅抵消渠道結構對毛利率不利影響。


庫存水平同比下降16.9%,天數至119天(23年Q1爲136天);客單價同比持平。


分渠道,FY24Q1寶勝店鋪營收-12%,佔比74%,其中直營店鋪3481家較23年底-42家,營收佔店鋪營收74%;加盟店營收佔店鋪營收26%+3pct;全渠道(電商平臺+泛微店私域)營收+3%,佔比26%。


品牌矩陣方面,新引入Saucony、Hoka等運動品牌及XEXYMIX、波司登等戶外及瑜伽品牌帶動成長。


Retail: multi-matrix operations drove growth; sound omnichannel profitability

Key metrics: subsidiary Pou Sheng, which runs YY’s retail business, contributed revenue of RMB5.40bn, down 7.5% yoy; with gross margin at 33.2% (vs 33.5% in 23H1). The high-margin direct sales channels underperformed but discounting improved by a low-single-digit yoy and also improved qoq, helping to mitigate the weaker margin impact from the channel mix. Inventory levels fell 16.9% yoy, with inventory days at 119 (vs 136 days in 23Q1); while customer order volumes were flat yoy.


Channel breakdown:

•Pou Sheng store revenue fell 12% in 24Q1E, accounting for 74% of the total:

-It has 3,481 directly-operated stores, comprising 74% of the total store network (42 fewer than at end-2023).

-Franchised stores accounted for 26% of store revenue, up 3ppt.

-Omnichannel revenue (including ecommerce platforms and pan-WeChat private domain stores) accounted for 26%, up 3ppt.


Brands: YY beefed up its brand matrix to drive growth and added sports brands like Saucony and Hoka, as well and outdoor and yoga brands like XexyMix and Bosideng.



投資建議/Investment Ideas


維持盈利預測,維持“買入”評級

公司聚焦中長期產能佈局策略,推動人力與產能提升計劃,進一步增強經營韌性,打造高度敏捷而靈活的營運模式以提升產效,善用核心強項、調節能力和競爭優勢,輔以成本與費用管控以穩固盈利能力。我們預計公司24-26年收入分別爲86.45/96.45/109.35億美元,歸母淨利分別爲2.96/3.48/4.02億美元,EPS分別爲0.18/0.22/0.25美元/股,對應PE分別爲12/11/9X。


Valuation and risks

With a strategic focus on its mid-to-long-term capacity buildout, Yue Yuen Industrial plans to boost manpower and production capacities to augment operational resilience. It seeks to create a highly agile and flexible operating model to raise production efficiency, capitalize on core strengths, while regulating capabilities and competitive advantages, along with cost and expense control to stabilize profitability. We maintain our forecast with revenue at USD8.65bn/9.65bn/ 10.94bn and net profit at USD296m/348m/402m in 2024/25/26E, implying EPS of USD0.18/0.22/0.25, corresponding to PE of 12x/11x/9x. We maintain our BUY rating.


風險提示: 品牌客戶集中度風險;市場競爭環境加劇風險;跨市場比較相關風險;法律合規及企業管治風險;資訊科技及數據安全風險;經濟及社會環境風險。


Risks include: brand customer concentration risks; intensifying competition; risks related to cross-market comparisons; legal compliance and corporate governance risks; information technology and data security risks; and economic and social environment risks.


Email: [email protected]

TFI research report website:

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