对于我的儿孙所生活的美国，我有如下预感：美利坚合众国将成为一个以服务和信息为主的经济体，几乎所有关键的制造业都会流向其它国家；令人敬畏的技术力量集中在少数人手中，而代表公共利益的那群人甚至都无法理解技术问题；普通人不再能掌控自己的生活，要质疑权威也缺乏相关知识；人们抱着水晶球、神经兮兮地查阅星座运程，理性批判力日益衰退，无法区分良好感觉和事实真相，几乎不知不觉地退回了迷信与黑暗时代。影响巨大的媒体上，有真材实料的内容慢慢减少，三十秒的短引语（现在减到十秒甚至更短了），为最缺乏鉴赏力的人群设计的节目，关于各种伪科学和迷信的无脑讲演，这些都是美国正在变蠢的证据，但最重要的证据，是一种对无知的推崇。
——卡尔·萨根
卡尔·萨根：科学是人类发现真理的唯一途径
作者：ADAM ROGERS
译者：陈怡蓓 & 倪婷
校对：鲁城华
策划：周伍豪
TWENTY YEARS AFTER HIS DEATH, CARL SAGAN IS STILL RIGHT
离世二十年，卡尔·萨根仍未过时
本文选自 Wired | 取经号原创翻译
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TWENTY YEARS AGO I called Carl Sagan to ask him why people believed crazy stuff.
二十年前，我问卡尔·萨根为什么人们会相信疯狂的事物？
Sagan—astronomer, creator of the “
golden record
” messages to any aliens who might find the Voyager space probes, creator and host of Cosmos, novelist, arguably one of the best-known scientists of the 20th century—would’ve been 83 years old today.
萨根是天文学家、"
星际唱片
"（这是旅行者号探测器上携带的人类致外星生命的地球档案）的制作者、BBC纪录片《宇宙》的策划和主持、小说家，以及是二十世纪当之无愧最著名的科学家之一。如果还在世的话，他该是83岁的高龄了。
golden record
The Voyager Golden Records are two phonograph records that were included aboard both Voyager spacecraft launched in 1977.
1977年，旅行者号飞船携带两张星际唱片飞向太空。这两张唱片是赠给外星文明时间胶囊。
Me, I was a fact-checker on the science desk at Newsweek, which meant I mostly did reporting for other people’s stories. In mid-1996 the magazine
spun up
a cover on the paranormal, and I was on the team.
我是《新闻周刊》科学部的事实核查员，主要报道别人的故事。1996年中，我参与
策划
了一期《新闻周刊》封面，是关于超自然现象的。
spin up
策划
Sagan had written a book called The Demon-Haunted World, about science as a way of understanding the universe and freeing people from fears of the supernatural. And he had famously once said of the paranormal that “extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence.” So I
blasted
through
Demon-Haunted World—and, nervous as any other Cosmosfan would’ve been, I called Sagan at Cornell.
萨根写过一本书，叫做《魔鬼出没的世界》，他认为科学是人们理解世界以及免于害怕超自然现象的一种方式。关于超自然现象，他曾有句非常著名的论断："非凡的断言需要非凡的证据。"我
迫不及待读完了
《魔鬼出没的世界》，和所有《宇宙》迷一样，怀揣着忐忑给康奈尔的萨根打了电话。
blast
verb BrE /blɑːst/ ; NAmE /blæst/ explode [transitive, intransitive] blast (something) (+ adv./prep.) to violently destroy or break something into pieces, using explosives 猛攻；爆炸
I don’t remember if he was gracious or merely tolerant of my dopey questions. But I have the notes. “When UFOs became a popular subject and I was in early high school or something, it seemed to me great. We were just reaching out into space, and why not a much more advanced civilization reaching out to us?” Sagan said. “It seemed so
heady
and promising, such an interesting future. But as I learned a little bit more about the properly skeptical attitudes of science and how often we deceive ourselves, I began to look at this with much more skepticism.”
记不清他是和蔼或仅是出于礼貌回答了我那些愚蠢的问题。不过我当时的笔记还在。"UFO 流行的时候，我差不多刚上高中，我对它也非常感兴趣。那会儿我们刚进入太空，但为什么不是一个更高级的文明先来找我们？"萨根说。"那一切看上去令人
陶醉
，前景光明，真是个耀眼的明天呐。但是我渐渐意识到须对科学抱有适度怀疑，并且发现我们常常会欺骗自己，于是我开始以更怀疑的目光审视这一切。”
heady
adjective BrE /ˈhedi/; NAmE /ˈhedi/ [usually before noun] having a strong effect on your senses; making you feel excited and confident 令人陶醉的
Eventually Sagan would come to think of UFOism as more of a religion than anything else. It was the Cold War, Sagan said, “and people were
in their heart of hearts
worried that the human species would not
pull through
. What more comforting belief that aliens would come down and intervene?”
最终，萨根意识到UFO主义更像是一种宗教，而不是别的东西。是冷战的缘故，萨根说，"人们
打心底
认为
，人类可能无法
渡过劫难
。而相信外星人会降临并介入人类世界，还有什么比这更令人欣慰呢？"
in (one's) heart of hearts
In the deepest, most intimate part of oneself. 内心深处
pull through
To survive or endure something catastrophic or life-threatening 渡过难关
But just because an idea is comforting doesn’t mean anyone should believe it. “Merely because on an issue of this importance we must demand very high standards of evidence, and the proffered evidence is fantastically thin,” Sagan said. “Why would we commit belief when the evidence is so meager?”
但是令人安心的想法未必令人信服。"恰恰因为问题如此重要，才必须要求例证更严谨，但现有的证据却难以置信的贫瘠，"萨根说，"既然如此，为什么要委身于这种信仰呢？"
Commit
belief. That struck me as profound then and it still does—the idea that belief is an action you have to commit, an action so powerful that it requires an infrastructure of truth before you turn the key.
献身
信仰。当时这句话深深触动了我，至今仍是——信仰是一种行动，你必须将自己交付于它，它如此强大以至于你在彻底献身前必须要有真理为基础。
commit
verb BrE /kəˈmɪt/; NAmE /kəˈmɪt/ commit (to somebody/something) to be completely loyal to one person, organization, etc. or give all your time and effort to your work, an activity, etc. 托付，交付
The point, though—the big point—is that humans had the ability to do this. We could figure things out. Nothing was unknowable. “Who is in a position to set limits on what we will know? ‘Unknowable’ is a deep failure of the imagination,” he said. “‘Unknown?’ Who would doubt that there are an enormous number of things that are unknown?”
重点在于，人类有能力做到这些。我们可以弄清事实。没有什么是不可知的。"谁能限制我们将知道的一切？'不可知'是想象力的彻底失败，"他说。"'未知？'世上未知之事太多，谁会怀疑这一点？"
There was Sagan’s faith, I think, to the extent he had any. Much remains unknown; nothing stands unknowable.
我认为这就是萨根所坚信的。 我们对很多事物仍一无所知，但没有什么是不可知的。
Right now is a tough moment for science. Internal corrective measures—like the push for greater reproducibility and statistical power in fields from psychology to bioscience—have to expose weaknesses before they can rebuild strength. The underrepresentation of women and people of color in research diminishes outcomes and builds power dynamics that allow harassment and abuse. Externally, political nominees to science-heavy policymaking positions have no problem dismissing the scientific consensus that human beings are changing Earth’s climate. Otherwise sensible people refuse to vaccinate their children, exposing entire populations to the
spectre
of epidemic. Political interest groups use religious goals to influence policy decisions about everything from health care to bathroom
signage
.
对科学来说，现在是一个艰难的时刻。从心理学到生物科学领域，例如为追求更高的再现性和统计功效，内部纠错措施必须先暴露缺点，才能重拾力量。在科学研究领域，女性和有色人种的代表人数较少的现象虽然有所缓解，却出现了允许骚扰和辱骂的权力制度。就外部环境来说，重大科学决策岗位的政治候选人却轻易地忽视了人类正在改变地球气候这样一个科学界的共识；或者是理智？的家长却拒绝为孩子接种疫苗，从而使人类陷入对流行病肆虐的
恐惧阴影
之下。政治利益集团利用宗教目标来影响包括从医疗保健到卫生间
标识
的几乎每一个决策。
the spectre of sth
the idea of something unpleasant that might happen in the future 对于…的恐惧（或忧虑）
signage
/s'aɪnɪdʒ/ n Signage is signs, especially road signs and advertising signs, considered collectively. 总称：标志，标牌（尤指路标、广告牌）
“Science is an enterprise of human beings, so there are all sorts of jealousies and rivalries and unwillingness to admit mistakes,” Sagan said. “But the great advantage is that the culture of science is opposed to these frailties, and the collective enterprise of science undoes them. We give our highest rewards to those who disprove the contentions of our most revered figures.”
卡尔·萨根认为：“科学是人类的一项事业，因此必然会有形形色色的嫉妒和竞争以及不情愿承认错误。但科学所具有的巨大优势在于科学文化是以上种种弱点的对立面，同时由于科学是人类的共同事业，因此能够消解以上缺点。我们向那些推翻了受人尊崇大人物的观点的人致以最崇高的敬意。”
That means, he said, that science as a practice was worth defending. “We must convince the most dedicated skeptics, even if there are those who are
craven
before authority, secular or scientific,” Sagan said. “Even if there are those who believe in the absence of evidence.”
这意味着科学作为一种实践是值得捍卫的，卡尔·萨根说：“即使在面对权力、世俗或科学时会
胆怯
，即便他们认为（观点）缺乏足够的证据，我们依然必须要说服这些坚定的怀疑主义者。”
craven
