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敏華控股: 內外銷共振向上,盈利表現靚麗

天风国际  · 公众号  ·  · 2024-05-29 18:01

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Man Wah Holdings

(1999 HK)


內外銷共振向上,盈利表現靚麗


FY24 takeaways: vibrant Chinese market and export sales uptrends delivered a robust total profit performance

BUY (maintain)


投資要點/Investment Thesis

投資要点/Investment Thesis

公司發佈2024財年年報。

FY24營業收入184億港元,同比+6.1%,歸母淨利潤23億港元,同比+20.2%,中國市場增速放緩、消費降級明確,海外市場訂單呈現前低後高的趨勢,綜合來看營收及利潤增長穩健。 FY24派息11.7億港元(派息率50.7%),回購2.3億港元,合計分紅比例60.7%,延續穩健高分紅。


降本增效&原材料價格下行,盈利能力優化


FY24毛利率39.4%,同比+0.9pct,淨利率12.5%,同比+1.5pct;內部降本增效及原材料價格下降推動盈利能力改善(真皮/鋼材/木夾板/印花布/化學品/包裝用紙單位成本分別同比-10%/-8%/-25%/-6%/-3%/-9%)。


中國:收入逆勢增長,功能沙發滲透率提升穩健

FY24中國區收入120億港元,同比+8.1%(人民幣同比+12.8%),在需求相對弱的市場環境中實現穩步增長。


FY24 revenue up 6%, net profit up 20%; China market growth bucks the trend

Key metrics: Man Wah Holdings recently released financial results for FY24 (fiscal year ended March 2024) with revenue at HKD18.4bn (up 6.1%) and net profit at HKD2.3bn (up 20.2%). The key factors included slowing Chinese market growth amid a smaller consumption appetite, while export orders trended from low to high. Revenue and profit growth were both healthy on the whole.


DPR: the company is maintaining its high dividend trend: it is set to pay out dividends of HKD1.17bn for FY24 (a payout ratio of 50.7%), and along with repurchases of HKD230m, the total payout ratio would be 60.7%.


Profitability: gross margin was 39.4% in FY24 (up 0.9ppt) and net margin was 12.5% (up 1.5ppt). Profitability improved after the company drilled down internal costs and raise efficiencies, amid falling raw material prices. Unit costs of genuine leather/steel/ plywood/printed cloth/chemicals/packaging paper fell 10/8/25/6/3/9% yoy.


China market revenue rose 8.1% to HKD12bn in FY24 (up 12.8% in RMB terms), driving steady growth despite generally weak demand.



分品類來看, FY24沙發及配套產品收入127億港元,同比+2.9%,毛利率39.6%,同比+1.1pct,其中中國沙發及配套產品收入同比+3.1%;


FY24牀具及配套收入30億港元,同比+9.6%,毛利率43.8%,同比-0.7pct。


Products: functional sofa penetration rose 2.5ppt to 9.7% in China market in CY23

•Sofas and ancillary products generated HKD12.7bn revenue in FY24 (up 2.9%), with gross margin at 39.6% (up 1.1ppt); the China segment grew 3.1%.

•Bed equipment and ancillary products contributed HKD3bn revenue in FY24 (up 9.6%), with gross margin at 43.8% (down 0.7ppt).


Notably, the penetration rate of functional sofas in the Chinese market shot up 2.5ppt to 9.7% in CY23. Euromonitor International projects the growth trend will exceed 13% within 5 years. We reckon this is because consumers replacing old sofas would weigh overall considerations such as brand, quality and cost-effectiveness. We expect functional home furnishings will gain favor over time for their smart functionalities and convenient user experience. China’s functional sofa industry currently has low penetration, which implies high growth potential. We believe Man Wah will continue to expand its China market share in the future.


分渠道來看, 截至FY24末線下門店7236家,同比+765家,重點開拓下沉市場及一二線城市性價比系列;傳統電商及直播平臺先發優勢強,通過短視頻、自播等方式強化品牌影響力。


2023年中國市場功能沙發滲透率快速提升至9.7%,同比+2.5%,經歐睿國際預測5年後有望突破13%,在存量換新過程中消費者更注重品牌、品質及性價比的綜合考量,功能家居以其智能化、便捷化的用戶體驗逐漸受到青睞。目前中國功能沙發行業仍處於低滲透、高增長潛力階段,預計未來在中國存量市場中市佔率持續增長。


海外:訂單前低後高,外銷補庫有望共振

海外市場需求及訂單恢復較爲明顯,公司積極參展拓展新管道新客戶,重塑銷售隊伍建設人才建設,加強出口新產品研發及升級迭代,下半財年海外收入保持雙位數快速增長,彌補上半財年訂單下滑影響。其中北美收入43億港元,同比+2.3%;歐洲及其他(不包括Home Group)收入12億港元,同比+2.9%。


Channels: 7,236 physical stores after adding 765; exports trended low then high

Offline: the company’s store network comprised 7,236 outlets as of end-FY24, after it added 765 yoy. It focused on developing lower-tier-city markets as well as cost-effective locations in first and second-tier cities.


Online: Man Wah holds a firm first-mover advantage in traditional ecommerce, while on livestreaming platforms, the company is aiming to raise its brand profile through the use of short videos, livestream ecommerce and other forms.


Export markets: demand recovered substantially in export markets as a low FYH1 trended upward in FYH2. We expect to see export market restocking up ahead. The company participates in exhibitions to expand into new channels and add customers. It is making efforts to shape up the sales teams and build up talent, while strengthening R&D and upgrading new export products. This led export revenue to maintain fast double-digit growth yoy in FYH2, mitigating the order decline in FYH1. In particular, North America contributed HKD4.3bn in revenue, up 2.3% yoy; while Europe and others (excluding Home Group) contributed HKD1.2bn, up 2.9% yoy.



投資建議/Investment Ideas


調整盈利預測,維持“買入”評級

功能沙發行業仍然處低滲透、高增長階段,公司內銷積極佈局存量、渠道穩步擴張,外銷受益於海外補庫,預計FY25-27歸母淨利潤分別爲25.74/28.67/31.53億港元(FY25前值爲25.7億),對應PE分別爲11X/10X/9X。


Valuation and risks

We see strong growth potential in functional sofas, a market that is currently in the low-penetration and high-growth phase. Man Wah is revamping its Chinese market sales inventory and steadily expanding channels, while we expect export sales will benefit from stock replenishment. We tweaked our forecast to net profit of HKD2.574/2.87/3.15bn in FY25/26/27E (previously HKD2.57bn in FY25E), with PE corresponding to 11x/10x/9x. We maintain our BUY rating.


風險提示: 地產復甦不及預期,工程渠道回款風險,行業競爭加劇風險等


Risk include: slower-than-expected real estate recovery; project channel repayment risks; and intensifying competition.



Email: [email protected]

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