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美團: 收入、利潤超預期,盈利能力持續改善

天风国际  · 公众号  ·  · 2024-12-24 16:52

正文

美團-W

Meituan

(3690 HK)


收入、利潤超預期,盈利能力持續改善


24Q3E revenue and profit beat expectations as
profit-making strategies gain traction

买入(维持评级)

BUY (maintain)


投資要點/Investment Thesis

投資要點/Investment Thesis

整體業績 收入利潤均超彭博一致預期。美團24Q3收入936億元,超彭博一致預期1.7%;EBIT 137億元,超彭博一致預期41.0%。調整后凈利潤約128億元,超彭博一致預期10.1%。分業務來看,核心本地商業收入694億元,超彭博一致預期1.5%;新業務收入242億元,超彭博一致預期3.9%。


核心本地商業 24Q3收入端和利潤端均超預期。24Q3收入694億元,其中配送服務收入278億元,佣金收入261億元,在線營銷收入134億元。24Q3經營利潤146億元,超彭博一致預期13.7%。


餐飲外賣 24Q3按需配送業務繼續穩步增長,訂單量同比增長14.5%。公司優化產品形式,加深在行業供應鏈中的滲透,幫助商家提升效率。針對 拼好飯 ,持續提高運營效率並增強用戶體驗。公司協助拼好飯商家進行產品選品、補貼策略和流量分配。通過拼好飯,商家能夠有效擴大性價比產品的銷量,吸引新客戶並創造更多收入。 神搶手 計劃幫助餐飲品牌推廣高品質熱門產品,並激發非即時消費需求。公司進一步擴展 品牌衛星店 ,為商家提供全方位的線上支援。


美團閃購 本季度公司的用戶基礎和購買頻次均實現兩位數的同比增長。平台上新鮮食品和食品相關品類的購買頻次持續增加。夜間訂單佔比上升,低線市場的增長繼續超越整體市場。美團閃購倉的數量和訂單貢獻均有所增加。公司加速將美團閃購倉擴展到更多低線市場,一些大型零售商加速擁抱美團閃電倉。


到店酒旅: 本季度實現強勁增長,訂單量同比增長超過50%。年度交易用户和年度活躍商家數量均創下新高。


到店業務方面 ,公司計劃商家在不同場景和完整業務週期中實現高質量增長和高營銷回報率。公司提供直播服務、特價優惠、定製化營銷策略以及在線運營工具,説明商家優化運營、積累數字資產,並利用數據驅動的洞察推動增長。公司將升級后的會員計劃「神會員」擴展至全國範圍。公司通過優化補貼策略幫助商家提高流量轉化效率。新用戶數量和現有用户的購買頻次持續增長。低線市場增長速度更快,線上滲透加速。


酒旅業務方面 ,國內酒店間夜量持續穩步增長。高星酒店方面,公司通過新推出的營銷IP激發消費需求,通過會員計劃、營銷活動以及“酒店+X”產品,加強與連鎖酒店的合作。低星酒店領域,本地住宿和短途旅行的需求持續上升。“神會員”計劃已成為新的增長驅動力。高星酒店方面,一些全球高星酒店品牌已加入“神會員”。低星酒店方面,公司利用「神會員」向優質用户交叉銷售酒店間夜,擴大酒店業務的用戶基礎。


新業務 :2024Q3收入為242億元,超彭博一致預期3.9%。經營虧損為10.3億元,好於彭博一致預期44.0%。24Q3美團優選持續實現虧損的環比收窄。剔除美團優選,其他新業務在第三季度集體實現盈利,得益於效率提升和健康增長。


Meituan’s core competitiveness lies in a  strong merchant base and valuable user data amassed over decades of authentic reviews. In view of food delivery entry barriers and our anticipation of clearing macro market headwinds, we maintain our BUY call on the stock.


The gist: BUY

· Q3E unaudited results: both revenue and profit came in above expectations

· Core local businesses exceeded expectations at RMB69.4bn revenue in Q3E

·  F&B uptrend with on-demand delivery order volume lifting 14.5% yoy

· Instashopping user base and purchase frequency both up by double-digits

24Q3E unaudited results: both revenue and profit came in above expectations


Top line: Meituan again released strong unaudited quarterly results for 24Q3E, posting revenue of RMB93.6bn (up 22.4%), 1.7% better than the Bloomberg consensus expectation (BBG).

· Core local businesses: revenue amounted to RMB69.4bn in 24Q3E, beating BBG by 1.5%.

· New businesses: revenue was RMB24.2bn, exceeding BBG by 3.9%.

Bottom line: EBIT came to RMB13.7bn, beating BBG by 41.0%, while adjusted net profit rose 124% yoy to RMB12.8bn, surpassing BBG by 10.1%.


Core local businesses outperformed expectations with RMB69.4bn revenue in Q3E

The company’s core local businesses put in solid performances for 24Q3E and delivered better revenues and profits than expected:

· Revenue amounted to RMB69.4bn, up 22.4% yoy.

- Delivery services: revenue grew 20.9% yoy to RMB27.8bn.

- Commissions: revenue came in at RMB26.1bn, having risen 24.9% yoy.

- Online marketing services: revenue increased 18.4% yoy to RMB13.4bn.

· Operating profit was RMB14.6bn, exceeding BBG by 13.7%.


F&B uptrend continues with on-demand delivery order volume lifting 14.5% yoy

Meituan’s on-demand delivery business grew steadily in 24Q3 as order volume increased 14.5% yoy. The company optimized product formats and deepened supply chain penetration to help merchants improve efficiency. A more granular look shows:

· Pin Hao Fan: Meituan improved operational efficiency in this format and enhanced user experience by assisting merchants in product selection, subsidy strategies and traffic allocation. Pin Hao Fan enabled merchants to expand sales of cost-effective products more effectively, attract new customers and generate higher revenue.

· Shen Qiang Shou: under this banner, Meituan helps restaurant brands promote their premium top-selling products and stimulate non-instant consumer demand.

· Branded satellite stores: the company expanded its satellite store network and helped merchants with comprehensive online support, which enabled the stores to offer consumers value-for-money products.


Instashopping user base and purchase frequency both up by double-digits

Fresh food driver: this business achieved double-digit yoy growth in both user base and purchase frequency in 24Q3E, driven particularly by fresh food and other food-related categories. The proportion of night-time orders increased; and lower-tier-city markets also saw strong growth as they continued to outpace other markets.

InstaMarts: the company added more InstaMarts in Q3 and the order contribution from this business rose. Expansion to more regions continued and collaborations grew as InstaMart added some large retailers.

In-store, hotels and travel: solid performances across the board

In-store: order volumes up over 50% yoy; new user and merchant highs

· Operational measures: Meituan enabled its merchants to achieve quality growth and high marketing returns with differentiated scenarios through full business cycles. Livestreaming services, special offers, customized marketing strategies and online operational tools helped merchants optimize operations, accumulate digital assets and leverage data-driven insights to drive growth.

·  SHY premium members: the company extended across the country the span of Shen Hui Yuan (SHY), its premium membership program. Meituan helped merchants improve traffic conversion efficiency by fine-tuning subsidy strategies. As a result, both the number of new users and current users’ purchase frequency rose.

· Lower-tier-city footprint: growth is picking up strongly in lower-tier-city markets, where the company accelerated online penetration.


Hotels and travel: business continued to pick up; Shen Hui Yuan key growth driver

The number of domestic hotel room nights continued to grow steadily in 24Q3:

· High-star hotels: the company stimulated consumer demand by launching new marketing IPs, while strengthening cooperation with hotel chains through membership plans, marketing activities and “Hotel + X” package deals.

· Low-star hotels: demand for local accommodation and short-distance travel continued to rise.

·   Shen Hui Yuan: SHY has become a new growth driver for the company. The inclusion of several high-star international hotels has enabled Meituan to offer consumers a more diverse range of hotel-and-tourism tie-ins. As for the low-star hotels, the company leverages this program to cross-sell hotel room nights to premium users and expand the user base.


New businesses: operating losses shrank further to RMB1.03bn

· Revenue from this segment came in at RMB24.2bn, 3.9% better than BBG; while operating losses narrowed to RMB1.03bn, 44.0% better than BBG.

·  Meituan Select’s community group-buy program continued to narrow losses qoq. If we were to exclude Meituan Select, this segment would have collectively achieved profitability in Q3E, due to better efficiency and healthy growth.


投資建議/Investment Ideas


投資建議: 我們認為美團的核心競爭力在於強大的商戶基礎以及積累數十年的用戶的真實評價,自身護城河依然穩固。現階段來看,外賣業務壁壘穩固,外部競爭格局逐步清晰,未來美團核心本地商業盈利能力有望持續加強,新業務減虧順利。考慮到公司海外擴張處於早期,且盈利釋放後稅率增加,我們預測美團2024-2026年收入分別為3363/3880/4336億元(前值3347/3843/4333億元),凈利潤(Non-IFRS)分別為417/516/611億元(前值408/606/724億元),維持“買入”評級。


Valuation and risks

We believe Meituan’s core competitiveness lies in a strong merchant base and the rich data storehouse it has amassed over decades of authentic user reviews. At this stage, while the food delivery industry holds significant entry barriers, we believe external competitive headwinds are clearing out. Looking ahead, we expect profitability will strengthen at Meituan’s core local business, while losses diminish gradually at the new businesses. With the company’s global expansion still in the early stages and expecting it will face a higher tax rate following the earnings release, we have adjusted our revenue forecast to RMB336.3bn/388.0bn/433.6bn for 2024/25/26E (previously RMB334.7bn/ 384.3bn/433.3bn) and non-IFRS net profit to RMB41.7bn/51.6bn/61.1bn (previously RMB40.8bn/ 60.6bn/72.4bn). We maintain our BUY rating.


風險提示: 外賣增速放緩; 本地生活服務競爭加劇線下消費恢復持續性存在不確定性; 新業務減虧節奏存在不確定性。


Risks include: slowing food delivery growth rates; intensifying competition in local services; uncertainties affecting the offline consumption recovery momentum; and the uncertain loss-reduction pacing at Meituan’s new businesses.


Email: [email protected]

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