产出缺口为正值的国家往往会经历通胀加速
产出缺口衡量经济体的实际产出与其全部潜力（即实现通胀稳定和充分就业时的产出水平）之间的差距。产出缺口为正值的国家往往会经历通胀加速，表明其经济增长可能即将放缓。国际货币基金组织认为，许多中东欧国家可能会在今年弥合产出缺口，但也警告说，要准确估算这些缺口并不容易。在罗马尼亚，最低工资上涨16%可能会提振国内需求，通胀也应该会开始回升。波斯尼亚和乌克兰仍要面对巨大的产出缺口负值，其政策制定者肯定会对邻国羡慕不已。■
Output gaps
Countries with positive output gaps tend to experience accelerating inflation
The
output gap measures how far away an economy is from its full potential,
a sweet spot defined as the level of output consistent with stable
inflation and full employment. Countries with positive output gaps tend
to experience accelerating inflation, indicating economic growth may
soon slow. The IMF thinks that many central and eastern European
countries may have closed their output gaps this year (although it also
warns that estimating these gaps precisely is tricky). In Romania, a 16%
rise in the minimum wage is likely to lift domestic demand; inflation
should also start to pick up. Policymakers in Bosnia and Ukraine, which
still have big negative output gaps, will surely look on in envy. ■
