北大经院 | 讲座预告（6.13-6.14）

国际经济学与实证产业组织工作坊

主讲人：

何秋谷（南开大学经济学院助理教授）

主持老师：

（北大经院）莫家伟

参与老师：

（北大经院）杨汝岱、田巍、刘政文、吴群锋

（北大新结构）王歆、徐铭梽

时间：

2024年6月13日（周四）

10：00-11：30

地点：

北京大学经济学院107会议室

主讲人简介：

何秋谷，2021年毕业于新加坡管理大学经济学院，并同年加入南开大学经济学院国经系担任助理教授。他曾分别在中南大学和北京大学获得软件工程的学士和硕士学位。他的研究兴趣集中在经济学模型的开发和分析，目前的工作论文集中在经济增长、产业组织和国际贸易领域。

摘要：

Empirical evidence suggests a complementary relationship between the scopes of imports and exports in shaping export value by examining the Chinese apparel industry. Motivated by this, we model multi-product firms' decisions on imports and exports. This model highlights the role of import scope in enhancing the productivity of both core products and peripheral products. We estimate demand curves, the production function for exported products and the relative efficiency of foreign inputs. Subsequently, we quantify the impacts of tariff reductions and quota removals within this framework. The counterfactual analyses show that both import and export scopes expand due to liberalization driven by the two trade policies. Moreover, the ignorance of the interaction between import and export scopes results in a significant underestimation of the positive effects of trade liberalization on the improvement of productivity and welfare of foreign consumers.

主讲人：

Olga Borokh（俄罗斯科学院研究员）

时间：

2024年6月14日（周五）

9：30-11：30

地点：

北京大学经济学院301会议室

主持人：

陈皓（北京大学经济学院经济史学系博士生）

评论人：

吴文（北京大学习近平新时代中国特色社会主义思想研究院研究员）

周建波（北京大学经济学院经济史学系主任、教授）

主讲人简介：

Olga Borokh (博罗赫)是莫斯科的俄罗斯科学院中国与现代亚洲研究所的主导研究员。毕业于莫斯科大学亚非学院，获俄罗斯科学院经济学博士学位。她的研究领域包括二十世纪初以来的中国经济思想史，重点是西方经济思想对中国经济学的影响, 以及中华人民共和国当代的经济思想。她是欧洲汉学家协会（EACS）和欧洲经济思想史学会（ESHET）的会员。她多次来华参加经济思想史研究学术研讨会。

主办单位：

北京大学经济学院经济史学系

北京大学社会经济史研究所

北京大学外国经济学说研究中心

发展与公共财政工作坊

主讲人：

Bo Sun（Associate Professor at the University of Virginia）

参与老师：

（北大经院）刘冲、吴群锋、曹光宇

（北大国发院）李力行、席天扬、徐化愚、于航、王轩、易君健、黄清扬

时间：

2024年6月14日（周五）

11:30-13:00

地点：

北京大学国家发展研究院承泽园131教室

主讲人简介：

Bo Sun is an Associate Professor of Business Administration at the University of Virginia Darden School of Business. She studies economic implications of information frictions and uncertainty, including their effects on contracting design, financial market trading, and macroeconomic activity. Prior to joining UVA Darden, she was a Principal Economist at the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. She currently serves as an Associate Editor at the Journal of Money, Credit and Banking and is a visiting scholar at the Federal Reserve Board.

摘要：

We quantify tension between the U.S. and China and examine its economic transmission. We first present a text-based index of U.S.-China tension (UCT) that shows close alignment with the views expressed by business and policy decision makers, both in rhetoric and action. Using our UCT index, we document that elevated tension is associated with reduced U.S. corporate investment—especially for more exposed firms—and reconfiguration of U.S. firm supply chains away from China. U.S.-China tension is also reflected in cross-sectional stock returns, in patterns consistent with investor expectations of deteriorating economic opportunities. These effects predate the 2018 trade disputes. Decomposing our index into a component reflecting concrete actions that directly impede bilateral engagement and a component driven by uncertainty surrounding the trajectory of such frictions, we find that transmission operates primarily through the uncertainty channel, though both are important. Our findings reveal nuanced implications of continued tension: should uncertainty surrounding the relationship subside, even a high-tension, new norm could see contained economic effects.