【钢铁&英语】数据说话！美国钢铁的衰落不应归咎于中国

There's a simple argument behind President Donald Trump's complaints that China's steel mills are killing their American rivals.Since 2000, China's output of steel has risen more than 560 percent, from just over 100 million metric tons a year to 690 million tons in the past 12 months. During the same period, U.S. employment in manufacturing primary metals like steel, aluminum and copper has dropped 38 percent, from 625,000 to 385,000 jobs.

在美国总统唐纳德·特朗普抱怨的背后，有一个简单的观点：中国的钢厂正在扼杀美国的竞争。自2000年以来，中国的钢铁产量增长超过了560%，从每年仅1亿多吨增长到过去一年间的6.9亿吨。同期，美国像钢铁、铝和铜等金属原材料生产的工作岗位数量已经从625,000跌至385,000，下降了38%。

With Department of Commerce officials set to brief Congress Friday on an investigation into whether steel imports threaten U.S. national security, and Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross weighing anti-dumping measures, it's worth asking whether that relationship is as straightforward as it seems. After all, about the closest thing the global steel industry has to a fundamental law of nature is the steel intensity curve.

6月9日，美国商务部官员开始向国会提出，要调查钢铁进口是否威胁美国国家安全。而且，目前商务部部长威尔伯·罗斯也在考虑反倾销措施。然而，进口钢铁与国家安全是否有直接联系，这值得考虑，毕竟全球钢铁产业遵循的是基本经济规律：钢需求强度曲线。

Poor countries use very little steel per unit of gross domestic product. As they industrialize, this steel intensity increases rapidly, to the point where the country starts to transition toward consumer-led growth. At that point, steel intensity starts to slip again, as spending shifts from industrial products like machinery and buildings, to less metal-intensive categories, such as yoga mats and degustation menus:

在国家的发展初期，其单位国内生产总值的用钢量极少。随着这些国家工业化的发展，钢铁需求增长迅速，经济开始向消费主导增长转变。在此节点上，随着消费由像机械和建筑这样的工业产品，转向低金属强度类别（如瑜伽垫 ） ，钢铁需求强度又开始下降。 如下图所示:

Considered in the context of the evolution of steel intensity, it's clear that U.S. metal output isn't declining because of overseas competition, but because as America gets richer, it's buying different stuff.Employment is also suffering because the steel the U.S. does still produce is being made more efficiently: Labor productivity in the U.S. primary metal sector has risen from 54 in 1987 to 115 in 2016, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

鉴于钢需求强度的发展环境，很显然，出于 海外竞争的考虑， 美国金属出口量并未下降。但由于美国经济实力的增强，其在全球购买不同的原材料。同时，其就业情况也面临困境，原因在于美国钢的生产日渐高效：根据美国劳工统计局数据，美国金属原材料领域的劳动生产率由1987年的54增长至2016年的115。

You have to squint quite hard to even see Chinese steel imports to the U.S., when compared to the size of the domestic trade. The country's mills produced about 79 million tons over the past 12 months, versus about 742,000 tons of imports from China, which only just makes it into the top 10 exporters.

对比美国国内交易规模，你必须“使劲眯着眼 ” 才能看清中国进口到美国的钢铁量。在过去一年多的时间里，美国钢厂生产了约7,900万吨钢铁，而其中只有大约74万吨从中国进口，这仅使中国位列美国钢铁进口国前十位。

China only just makes it into the top 10 steel exporters to the U.S. by value .

根据进口情况可知，中国仅使其位列美国钢铁进口国的前十位。

In every subcategory of traded steel, China is little more than a footnote in terms of U.S. imports:

在所有交易钢铁的子范畴中，提及美国进口国，中国只不过是一个注脚而已。

Note: Shows dollar value of imports in 2016.

注：2016年进口至美国的钢铁产品价值。

The top 10 importers of Chinese steel are all in Asia

中国出口钢铁最多的十个国家和地区都在亚洲

To the extent that prices of U.S. and Chinese steel tend to go hand-in-hand, it's more because both industries use raw materials -- iron ore, coking coal, scrap, and natural gas -- that really are traded on a busy global market.

某种程度上而言，美国和中国的钢铁价格处于“齐头并进 ” 态势，这更多是因为两国工业使用的原材料都在全球市场上进行购买，比如铁矿石、焦煤、废钢和天然气。

Ten times as many U.S. manufacturing jobs depend on steel consumption as steel production.

美国消费钢材的制造业所提供的岗位数量，十倍于钢铁生产行业。

The U.S. manufacturing sector doesn't just contain steelmakers -- it contains steel-users too. While primary steelmaking employs 385,000 Americans, transforming that metal into fabricated parts, machinery and vehicles accounts for about 4.1 million jobs. All things being equal, those industries have most to lose from a U.S. steel industry that can use protection from overseas competition to raise prices.

美国的制造业并不仅仅包括钢铁企业，还包括许多钢铁用户。从上图可以看出，钢铁主流程仅仅提供38.5万个就业岗位，而钢铁制品、机械以及运输设备等用钢行业可以提供410万个岗位，而这些岗位会随着因为贸易保护措施导致钢铁价格上涨而蒙受损失。

The U.S. is a net exporter of steel：

来自美国商务部的数据显示，美国是一个钢铁净出口国：

The U.S. has everything to gain and little to lose from open global markets. It's a net exporter of steel, as figures from Ross's own Department of Commerce show. In trying to hurt China, Washington risks shooting itself in the foot.

在开放的全球市场上，美国将获得一切而并很少会失去什么。根据罗斯商务部所显示的数据表明，美国是钢净进口国。为了伤害中国，美国正在冒险搬起石头砸自己的脚。