当今的投资界，除了沃伦·巴菲特，最受敬仰的莫过于基金公司Baupost Group的塞斯•卡拉曼了。自从1983年卡拉曼成立了自己的基金公司，他不仅创下无可匹敌的收益率（年复合增长率超过20%），还时常分享他对市场和投资睿智又经典的见解。
塞斯•卡拉曼是《安全边际：为有想法的投资者准备的风险规避型价值投资策略》
一书的作者。这本书1991年初次出版后便立即成为了价值投资的经典著作。
这次，格隆汇精译求精团队，将本书的30个重要思想，翻译整理出来，相信他们会帮助各位成为更好，更敏锐的投资者。
11: How Big Investors Misbehave and Why They Underperform
Ifthe behavior of institutional investors weren't so horrifying, it might actually be humorous.
Hundreds of billions of other people's hard-earned dollars are routinely whipped from investment to investment based on little or no in-depth research or analysis.
十一：投资大鳄是如何失误的，他们的表现为何弱于大盘？
如果忽略机构投资者可能带来的可怕后果的话，他们的行为其实还挺搞笑的。
他们搜刮投资者们辛辛苦苦赚回来的数十亿钱财，然后在没有经过深度研究和分析就进行一个又一个的投资。
The prevalent mentality is consensus, groupthink. Acting with the crowd ensures an acceptable mediocrity; acting independently runs the risk of unacceptable underperformance.
Indeed, the short-term, relative-performance orientation of many money managers has made "institutional investor" a contradiction in terms.
现在盛行的心态就是要一致从众。人们可以接受随大流带来的平庸，无法接受特立独行时面临跑输大盘的风险。
投资经理们这种追求短期收益的心态使得“机构投资者”变成了一个充满矛盾的称谓。
Most money managers are compensated, not according to the results they achieve, but as a percentage of the total assets under management. The incentive is to expand managed assets in order to generate more fees. Yet while a money management business typically becomes more profitable as assets under management increase, good investment performance becomes increasingly difficult.
许多投资经理的报酬模式不是基于他们做出的成绩，而是基于他们管理的资金占比资金总额的多少。这就会刺激他们想要不断扩大自己管理的资金量，这样就能产生更多的费用。但实际上从机构的角度出发来看，提升资金的投资回报率才是获利最高的途径，（所以经理们的心态）使机构们愈发难获得好的投资表现。
This conflict between the best interests of the money manager and that of the clients is typically resolved in the manager's favor.
但本来投资经理们只要调整自己的行为偏好，这种机构与客户之间的矛盾就完全可以解决。
12: Short-Term, Relative-Performance Derby
Like dogs chasing their own tails, most institutional investors have become locked into a short-term, relative performance derby. Fund managers at one institution have suffered the distraction of hourly performance calculations; numerous managers are provided daily comparisons of their results with those of managers at other firms.
十二：短期相对回报的德比大战
就像追着自己尾巴转圈的狗狗，绝大多数机构投资者都被困在追求短期相对回报的德比大战中。有一个机构里的基金经理们的表现甚至要按小时计费；不计其数的经理每天的业绩都要被拿来和其他公司的同行比较。
Frequent comparative ranking can only reinforce a short-term investment perspective.
It is understandably difficult to maintain a long-term view when, faced with the penalties for poor short-term performance, the long- term view may well be from the unemployment line.
频繁的对比和排名只会更加强化他们想要追求短期投资收益的观点。
如果他们的短期收益表现很差，就要受罚，所以也可以理解为什么想要他们维持长期投资的信念很难。如果他们坚持长期收益的做法，很可能就会失业。
Investing without understanding the behavior of institutional investors is like driving in a foreign land without a map. You may eventually get where you are going, but the trip will certainly take longer, and you risk getting lost along the way.
不了解机构投资者们的这个特性就去盲目投资，就好比在异国自驾行却不带地图。你可能最后还是会到达一开始的目的地，但旅程所需的时间肯定更长，你还得承担途中迷路的风险。
13: First, Avoid Losses
Warren Buffett likes to say that the first rule of investing is "Don't losemoney," and the second rule is, "Never forget the first rule."
十三：首先，避免亏钱
沃伦·巴菲特经常说投资的首要定律就是“不要亏钱”，第二条则是：“永远牢记第一条。”
I too believe that avoiding loss should be the primary goal of every investor. This does not mean that investors should never incur the risk of any loss at all.Rather "don't lose money" means that over several years an investment portfolio should not be exposed to appreciable loss of principal.
我也认为避免亏钱应是每个投资者的首要目标，但这不是说投资者不应承受一丁点儿亏钱的风险。“不要亏钱”更多地是指在往后的几年中一个人的投资组合不要导致资本大量流失。
While no one wishes to incur losses, you couldn't prove it from an examination of the behavior of most investors and speculators. The speculative urge that lies within most of us is strong; the prospect of a free lunch can be compelling,especially when others have already seemingly partaken.
没有人想要承受损失，你也无法通过检验绝大多数投资者和投机者的行为来证明。我们绝大多数人都有强烈的投机冲动，免费午餐的诱惑总是强烈的，特别是身边的人好像都已经吃到了。
It can be hard to concentrate on potential losses while others are greedily reaching for gains and your broker is on the phone offering shares in the latest"hot" initial public offering. Yet the avoidance of loss is the surest way to ensure a profitable outcome.
当别人都在贪婪地追逐利益，经纪人又在给你推荐时下最热的IPO股票时，你是很难静下心来想想亏钱的风险的。但依然，避免亏钱，是保证你炒股赚钱的笃定之法。
14: Relevance of Temporary Price Fluctuations
Inaddition to the probability of permanent loss attached to an investment, there is also the possibility of interim price fluctuations that are unrelated tounderlying value.
Many investors consider price fluctuations to be a significant risk: if the price goes down, the investment is seen as risky regardless of the fundamentals.
十四：临时价格波动的相关性
投资一个股票有可能会给你造成永久性的损失，也有可能其股价会出现临时性的波动，这种波动和公司背后的潜在价值并无关系。
很多投资者把股价的波动看作巨大的风险：只要股价下跌，不管这家公司根基如何，他们都会觉得它岌岌可危。
But are temporary price fluctuations really a risk? Not in the way that permanent value impairments are and then only for certain investors in specific situations.
但价格的临时波动真的有风险吗？有，但这和那些会造成永久损失的投资不一样，而且这种风险只对特定情况里的某些投资者有效。
It is, of course, not always easy for investors to distinguish temporary price volatility, related to the short-term forces of supply and demand, from pricemovements related to business fundamentals. The reality may only become apparent after the fact.
当然，要去分辨短期的供求关系带来的价格波动和企业根基受损带来的价值变化，是很难的。事实只有在真正发生了之后才会变得明显。
While investors should obviously try to avoid over paying for investments or buying into businesses that subsequently decline in value due to deteriorating results,it is not possible to avoid random short-term market volatility. Indeed,investors should expect prices to fluctuate and should not invest in securities if they cannot tolerate some volatility.
显然，投资者可以避免买高了或者买入之后公司其价值就发生退化，但不可能不面对股价的短期波动。实际上，他们应该知道价格波动一定会存在，如果他们一丁点儿的波动都接受不了，那还是别炒股了。
If you are buying sound value at a discount, do short-term price fluctuations matter?In the long run they do not matter much; value will ultimately be reflected in the price of a security. Indeed, ironically, the long-term investment implicationof price fluctuations is in the opposite direction from the near-term market impact.
如果你真的以折扣价买到了一个有价值的股票，短期的价格波动有影响么？长期来看，没有太大影响，一个公司的价值最后总会在其股价上真实反映出来的。讽刺的是，长期来看股价会上升，这和短期市场对股价的走向影响正好相反。
For example, short-term price declines actually enhance the returns of long-terminvestors. There are, however, several eventualities in which near-term price fluctuations do matter to investors. Security holders who need to sell in a hurry are at the mercy of market prices. The trick of successful investors isto sell when they want to, not when they have to.
也就是说短期价格下滑其实增加了长期投资者们的收益。但在几个情况下，长期投资者也会对关注短期价格波动，比如，那些急于卖股票的人就要受市场价格摆布。成功投资者的一个诀窍就是，想卖的时候再卖，而不是被迫卖。
Near-termsecurity prices also matter to investors in a troubled company. If a business must raise additional capital in the near term to survive, investors in its securities may have their fate determined, at least in part, by the prevailing market price of the company's stock and bonds.
还有，如果他们买的那个公司真的有问题时，投资者们也应该关注其股价变动。如果一个公司近期必须要靠筹集更多资金存活，那它将出现的股价变动某种程度上也决定了那些投资了这个公司的股票或者债券的人的命运。
The third reason long-term-oriented investors are interested in short-term price fluctuations is that Mr. Market can create very attractive opportunities to buy and sell. If you hold cash, you are able to take advantage of such opportunities.If you are fully invested when the market declines, your portfolio will likely drop in value, depriving you of the benefits arising from the opportunity to buy in at lower levels. This creates an opportunity cost, the necessity to forego future opportunities that arise. If what you hold is illiquid orun marketable, the opportunity cost increases further; the illiquidity precludes your switching to better bargains.
第三种情况则是市场先生有时候（会通过股价波动来创造）非常诱人的买卖机会。（股价下跌时，）如果你手上有现金，你就可以在此类机会中获益。但如果市场下行的时候你所有钱都已经投了进去，你的投资组合价值很可能会下降，因为你失去了用较低价格买入优质股票的获益机会。这就是机会成本，就是说你不得不放弃了未来可能出现的好机会。如果你手上的股票流动性和市场性很差，那这个机会成本就更高。买入流动性不足的股票会使你错失更好的投资机会。
15: Reasonable & Consistent Returns >Spectacular& Volatile Returns
A corollary to the importance of compounding is that it is very difficult to recover from even one large loss, which could literally destroy all at once the beneficial effects ofmany years of investment success.
十五：合理持续的收益>惊人却不稳定的收益
看重复利的一个必然结果就是，只要损失惨重一次，就很难恢复。这能一下子毁掉一个人多年成功的投资成果。
In other words, an investor is more likely to do well by achieving consistently good returns with limited downside risk than by achieving volatile and sometimes even spectaculargains but with considerable risk of principal.
换句话说，对于一个投资者而言，在有限风险的情况下获取持续良好的回报比在风险相对较大的情况下获得不稳定且有时“波澜壮阔”的回报可能要更好一些。
An investor who earns16 percent annual returns over a decade, for example, will, perhaps surprisingly, end up with more money than an investor who earns 20 percent ayear for nine years and then loses 15 percent the tenth year.
比如，一个在过去十年保持年收益率为16%的投资者和一个前九年每年都赚20%然后最后一年损失掉15%的投资者相比，前者可能最后赚的钱要更多。
16: Prepare for the Worst
Investors’ intent on avoiding loss must position themselves to survive and even prosper under any circumstances.
Bad luck can be fall you; mistakes happen.
十六：为最坏的情况做打算
避免亏钱的原则会使投资者在任何情况都生存下来甚至壮大。
但坏运气总会到来，人不可能永不犯错。
But the prudent, far sighted investor manages his or her portfolio with the knowledge that financial catas trophes can and do occur. Investors must be willing to forego some near-term return, if necessary, as an insurance premium against unexpected and unpredictable adversity.
精明、有远见的投资者相信金融灾难总会到来，并以此为前提管理自己的组合。逆境无法被预测，所以必要的时候，一定要放弃一些短期的回报，当作应对逆境缴纳上的保险。
17: Focus on Process, Not the Outcome
Many investors mistakenly establish an investment goal of achieving a specific rate of return.Setting a goal, unfortunately, does not make that return achievable. Indeed, no matter what the goal, it may be out of reach.
十七：注重过程，而非结果
许多投资者给自己设定了一个具体的回报率目标，这是错误的。不幸的是，定了目标不代表就一定会实现。也就是说，不管你定了什么目标，最后都有可能不达标。
If you look to Mr.Market as a creator of investment opportunities (where price departs fromunderlying value), you have the makings of a value investor.
如果你将市场先生看作投资机会的创造者，会为你创造那些价格和公司价值不符的投资机会，那你就有了成为价值投资者的先决条件。
Stating that you wantto earn, say, 15 percent a year, does not tell you a thing about how to achieve it. Investment returns are not a direct function of how long or hard you workor how much you wish to earn. A ditch digger can work an hour of overtime for extra pay, and a piece worker earns more the more he or she produces. An investor cannot decide to think harder or put in overtime in order to achieve a higher return.
假设你给自己定了一个每年赚15%的目标，但它并不会教你如何才能达标。投资回报和你的努力程度或者意愿的强烈程度不是直接正相关的。一个挖沟的工人加班一小时可以拿到更多钱，计件工完成的件数越多，赚得越多。但对于投资者来说，不是你思考得更努力或者投入更多时间就可以获得更多回报。
All an investor cando is follow a consistently disciplined and rigorous approach; over time there turns will come.
Rather than target inga desired rate of return, even an eminently reasonable one, investors should target risk.
投资者所能做的，只能是持续坚持自律严格的方法。假以时日，一定会有回报。
与其设定一个具体的投资回报率，就算它看起来很合理，都不如盯着风险（，不要让自己亏大钱）。
18: Wait for the Right Pitch
Warren Buffett uses abase ball analogy to the discipline of value investors. A long-term-oriented value investor is a batter in a game where no balls or strikes are called,allowing dozens, even hundreds, of pitches to go by, including many at which other batters would swing.
十八： 等待最佳的击球机会
沃伦·巴菲特曾经用棒球类比价投者的自律。一个长期导向型的投资者就好比击球手，比赛中没有出现好球，也没有出现坏球的时候，击球手可以对几十个，甚至几百个击球机会无动于衷，其中不乏别人看到很可能就会挥棒的机会。
Value investors are students of the game; they learn from every pitch, those at which they swing and those they let pass by. They are not influenced by the way others are performing; they are motivated only by their own results. They have infinite patience and are willing to wait until they are thrown a pitch they canhandle-an undervalued investment opportunity.
价投者就是比赛的学习者，不论击中与否，他们都从每一次挥棒中学习经验。他们不会受别人的表现影响，只关注自己的成绩如何。他们有无尽的耐心，愿意等，直到一次绝佳的击球机会出现在他们面前——一个被低估了的投资机会。
Value investors will not invest in businesses that they cannot readily understand or ones they find excessively risky.
价投者不会投资那些他们没有十分把握的，或者那些风险奇大的公司。
Most institutional investors, unlike value investors, feel compelled to be fully invested at alltimes. They act as if an umpire were calling balls and strikes-mostly strikes-thereby forcing them to swing at almost every pitch and
forego batting selectivity for frequency.
和价投者不同，绝大多数的机构投资者有强烈的欲望一直满仓。他们表现得好像裁判一直在让他们挥棒似的，因此他们迫切地感到自己应该每球必挥，为了挥棒的频率牺牲了选择挥棒的效率。
Many individual investors, like amateur ballplayers, simply can't distinguish a good pitch froma wild one. Both undiscriminating individuals and constrained institutional investors can take solace from knowing that most market participants feel compelled to swing just as frequently as they do.
许多个人投资者就像业余玩家，单纯地无法分辨哪一个才是好的击球机会。缺乏鉴别力的个人投资者和受限的机构投资者，当得知许多市场参与者也和他们一样，感觉自己应该频繁挥棒的时候，也能从中获得安慰。
For a value investora pitch must not only be in the strike zone, it must be in his "sweetspot." Results will be best when the investor is not pressured to invest prematurely. There may be times when the investor does not lift the bat fromhis shoulder; the cheapest security in an over valued market may still be over valued.You wouldn't want to settle for an investment offering a safe 10 percent returnif you thought it very likely that another offering an equally safe 15 percent return would soon materialize.
对于价投者来说，击球不只应在击打区域内，还应该在他的“甜蜜点”里。当投资者没有被迫在时机成熟前投资的时候，表现才最好。有时候机会来了，但他们可能依然不挥棒，因为在一个普遍估值偏高的市场里，最便宜的那个股票也依然是被高估的。一个安全的投资机会如果有10%的回报率和一个同样安全但是回报率有15%的投资机会，你肯定会想要选择后者。
Sometimes dozens of good pitches are thrown consecutively to a value investor. In panicky markets,for example, the number of undervalued securities increases and the degree of under valuation also grows. In buoyant markets, by contrast, both the number of undervalued securities and their degree of undervaluation declines.
有时，许多好机会接踵而至。比如在一个普遍恐慌的市场里，被低估的股票数量就会上升，被低估的程度也会上升。相对的，一个普遍看涨的市场里，被低估的股票数量和程度都会下降。
When attractive opportunities are plentiful, value investors are able to sift carefully through all the bargains for the ones they find most attractive. When attractive opportunities are scarce, however, investors must exhibit great self-disciplinein order to maintain the integrity of the valuation process and limit the pricepaid. Above all, investors must always avoid swinging at bad pitches.
当好机会充足时，价投者就可以从中认真筛选出他们觉得最具吸引力的机会。但是，当好机会稀缺时，价投者一定要表现出强大的自律性，这样才能保证估值的过程没有错误，不会花多了钱。就是说，投资者应该永远避免打坏球。
19: Complexity of Business Valuation
It would be a serious mistake to think that all the facts that describe a particular investment are or could be known. Not only may questions remain unanswered; all the right questions may not even have been asked. Even if the present could somehow be perfectly understood, most investments are dependent on outcomes that cannot be accurately foreseen.
十九：商业估值的复杂性
如果你觉得能看透任何一项投资决策背后的所有特性和逻辑的话，那你就大错特错了。总会有问题没人回答，该问的问题也经常没人问。就算现在能够完美地了解某一项投资决策，但还是要知道，绝大部分投资决策所依据的未来结果都是不可预测的。
Even if everything could be known about an investment,the complicating reality is that business values are not carved in stone.Investing would be much simpler if business values did remain constant while stock prices revolved predictably around them like the planets around the sun.
就算一项投资中的所有细节都被知道了，但一个公司的价值也不是刻在石头上人尽皆知的，这才是最复杂的地方。如果公司价值可以保持恒定，股价就像行星一样绕着价值转，那投资就会变得简单得多。
If you cannot be certain of value, after all, then howcan you be certain that you are buying at a discount? The truth is that you cannot.
如果你不确定一个公司的价值，那你怎么能确定你是以折扣价买入其股票呢？答案就是，不能。
20: Expecting Precision in Valuation
Many investors insist on affixing exact values to their investments, seeking precision in an imprecise world, but business value cannot be precisely determined.
二十：对估值精益求精？
许多投资者坚持在投资过程中做到精确估值，在一个充满不确定性的世界里精益求精，但问题是，一个公司是不可能被精确估值的。
Reported book value, earnings, and cash flow are,after all, only the best guesses of accountants who follow a fairly strict setof standards and practices designed more to achieve conformity than to reflect economic value. Projected results are less precise still. You cannot appraise the value of your home to the nearest thousand dollars. Why would it be any easier to place a value on vast and complex businesses?
公布出来的账面价值，收益和现金流说到底都只是根据一套相对严格的标准和实践做出来的合理的会计猜测，它更多的追求一致性而不是为了反映公司的经济价值。预测出来的数据也不会那么精确，几千美元的房子都很难准确估价，更何况是给所处环境庞大又复杂的公司估值？
Not only is business value imprecisely knowable, it also changes over time, fluctuating with numerous macroeconomic, microeconomic,and market-related factors. So while investors at any given time cannot determine business value with precision, they must never the less almost continuously reassess their estimates of value in order to incorporate all known factors that could influence their appraisal.
我们无法给公司正确估值，而且公司价值也总是在变，它会随着大量的宏观、微观以及市场相关的因素不停波动。在任意一个静止的时间节点，投资者都无法精确估出公司的价值，更何况还要随着时间变化结合所有可能影响估价的因素来不断调整他们的估计？
Any attempt to value businesses with precision will yield values that are precisely inaccurate. The problem is that it is easy to confuse the capability to make precise forecasts with the ability to make accurate ones.
所以，想要精确给一个公司估值，只会得出非常不准确的数字。而问题是，大家总会把“可以精确估值”和“可以准确估值”搞混。
Anyone with a simple, hand-held calculator can performnet present value (NPV) and internal rate of return (IRR) calculations. The advent of the computerized spreadsheet has exacerbated this problem, creating the illusion of extensive and thoughtful analysis, even for the most haphazardof efforts.
任何人，只要有计算器，就可以算净现值(NPV)和内部收益率(IRR)。电子制表工具的出现让人们以为自己能够做出精确深度的分析了，殊不知这种计算过程是非常随意的，从而进一步恶化了这个问题。
Typically, investors place a great deal of importance on the output, even though they pay little attention to the assumptions."Garbage in, garbage out" is an apt description of the process.
大家都觉得产出很重要，但却经常忽略在生产过程中，“垃圾进，垃圾出”才是正确写照。
In Security Analysis, Graham and David Dodd discussed the concept of a range of value –"The essential point is that security analysis does not seek to determine exactly what is the intrinsic value of agiven security. It needs only to establish that the value is adequate– e.g., toprotect a bond or to justify a stock purchase or else that the value is considerably higher or considerably lower than the market price. For such purposes an indefinite and approximate measure of the intrinsic value may be sufficient."
在《证券分析》中，格雷厄姆和大卫•多德就讨论过价值区间的概念：“证券分析最关键的一点不要痴迷计算一个证券精确的内在价值。你只需要确信其价值足够，比如说，去保护其债券价格或者股票价格相对其价值来说不要太高或太低，就好了。目标是这个的话，对内在价值有一个模糊大概的估算就够了。”
Indeed, Graham frequently performed a calculation known as net working capital per share, a back-of-the envelope estimate of acompany's liquidation value. His use of this rough approximation was a tacitad mission that he was often unable to ascertain a company's value moreprecisely.
的确，格雷厄姆经常会去算每股净运营资金的指标，用来大概估算一个公司流动价值。他频繁使用这个粗略估算的指标，恰恰就是在无声地向大家承认，他也没有办法给一个公司进行更精确的估值了。
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