美股或具備長期投資價值，近10年美股三大股指表現亮眼：
從股市表現看過去十年三大股指的表現亮眼，標 普 500 指 數 近 十 年累計上漲 185%。自2011年以來美國家庭人均收入增速穩健，截止2022年美國家庭人均年收入已達39167.92美元。
而消費作爲美國經濟的核心動能，現階段美國財政支持的的空間依然充足：根據CBO的預測2024財年的聯邦預算赤字將達到1.9萬億美元，中長期來看寬財政政策將有望繼續延續並支撐美國經濟。AI等技術進步有望持續帶動消費理念升級，個性化能力或成爲消費行業未來3-5年增長的內生動力。
Three major US indices: 10Y trends indicate US stocks hold long-term value
The S&P 500 Index has risen by a cumulative 185% in the past decade and is one of the three major US stock indices that have performed strongly. Meanwhile, US per-capita household income concurrently expanded to USD39,167.92 over 2011-22. We see plenty of room for US fiscal support for the consumer industry, which we regard as the key driver of the US economy. In view of the Congressional Budget Office projection of a USD1.9tr US federal budget deficit in FY24E (fiscal year ending September 2024), we believe the country will maintain its fiscal easing policy to support its economy over the medium to long term. With AI and other technological advances continuing to fuel consumer upgrade trends, we believe personalization will be a key driver of consumer industry growth over the next 3-5 years.
降息週期有望年內開啓，或將成爲配置美股良機：
我們認爲在降息週期年內開啓的預期下，美國市場風險偏好有望持續改善。基於現有9月的降息節點預期和聯邦基金目標利率，我們認爲美國本輪補庫週期仍將延續，同時若本輪美國補庫週期和9月降息節奏共振將有望進一步刺激美國生產和消費。此外財富效應有望持續帶動消費增長，下半年降息預期帶來的家庭淨資產增長和財富效應有望爲消費帶來一定支撐。
US stock allocations: we believe the interest rate cut cycle will kick in this year
We expect risk appetite in the US market will increase in the run-up to the potential interest rate cut cycle within the year. Based on current rate cut expectations for September and the federal funds target rate, we expect the US restocking cycle will continue. We believe the interplay of the restocking cycle and September rate cut momentum could stimulate US production and consumption. Additionally, the wealth effect is another factor in play that could increase consumption, when anticipation of interest rate cuts in H2 spurs growth of household net assets.
標普500消費精選指數投資價值分析
標普500消費精選指數由標準普爾公司於2022年11月21日發佈，旨在衡量標普500可選消費品精選指數和標普500必選消費品精選指數成分股中最大的50家公司，採用自由流通市值加權，同時限制單個公司和前五大成份股的權重上限，並留有緩衝區，以尋求指數內成份的多元化。
S&P 500 CS 15/60 Index: investment highlights
Diverse range of large caps:
Standard & Poor’s (S&P) launched the S&P 500 Consumer Select 15/60 Index (S&P 500 CS 15/60) on 21 Nov 2022 to measure 50 largest companies selected from both the S&P 500 consumer discretionary and consumer staple select indices. Based on float-adjusted market capitalization weight, the S&P 500 CS 15/60 limits weights of individual companies and the combined weight of its five largest companies to allow buffers and ensure a diversity of index constituents. The S&P 500 CS 15/60 leans toward large caps, with all of its constituents positioned within the top 10% of US listed companies in terms of market cap. The combined weight of the top five stocks currently accounts for 44.68% of the total index, which is within the limit.
大市值特徵顯著，成份股多元：
標普500消費精選指數偏好配置大市值公司，成份股總市值均位居美股上市公司的前10%；前五大權重股的權重佔比爲44.68%，符合權重限制，也使得指數成份股可以更多元；其中，同時能夠享受電動化、智能化和人工智能三重估值溢價的美股科技巨頭——特斯拉，在標普500消費精選指數ETF中權重佔比11.89%，是目前境內ETF跟蹤的標的指數中，含“特”量最高的。目前，境內跟蹤標普500消費精選指數的唯一一隻ETF爲景順長城標普消費精選ETF（場內簡稱“標普消費ETF”，基金代碼“159529”）。
Tesla
is a key constituent of the S&P 500 CS 15/60. The US electric car giant has a triple valuation premium that covers pioneering technologies like electrification, intelligentization and AI. We reckon that Tesla, which accounts for 11.89% of the total S&P 500 Consumer Discretionary Select Index by weight, is likely the most “special” thematic stock among underlying indices tracked by Chinese ETFs.
日常與非日常消費配置均衡：
標普500消費精選指數在大的部門配置方面較爲均衡，對日常消費品和高端消費品均有覆蓋；消費是美國經濟的重要引擎，而作爲同時配置美國日常必需品和高端消費的頭部成份股的指數，是幫助投資者跟蹤美國經濟以及美國消費情況的重要指數工具。
Balanced allocations:
the S&P 500 CS 15/60 appears to offer well balanced allocations in terms of major sectors, with its constituents leading players in both daily necessities and premium consumer goods. With the consumer industry a major driver of the US economy, the index provides a major benchmark for investors interested in the US economy and consumer market.
收益好，穩定性高：
自2016年以來，截至2024年7月15日，標普500消費精選指數總收益爲122.28%，年化收益率爲9.75%，年化夏普比爲0.58，收益好於恆生指數、恆生消費、滬深300和800消費，收益良好；該指數的年化波動率爲16.92%，最大回撤爲-28.02%，均明顯好於其他可比指數，低波動低迴撤特徵顯著。
Stable and good returns:
historical trends from 2016 to 15 July 2024 show the S&P 500 CS 15/60 had good returns with 122.28% total return, 9.75% annualized return and a 0.58 annualized Sharpe ratio, outperforming the Hang Seng Index, Hang Seng Consumption Index, CSI 300 and 800 Consumption Index. Historical trends also show the S&P 500 CS 15/60 had relatively low volatility and low drawdown at 16.92% annualized volatility and -28.02% maximum drawdown, much better than comparable indices.
與港股和A股相關性較低：
標普500消費精選指數與標普500指數的相關性較高，與港股和A股的相關性均較低，即使是同爲消費賽道的指數，相關性也同樣較低。因此，標普500消費精選指數與港股和A股或可以在資產配置中互補，以降低投資組合的整體風險，提高投資組合收益。
Low correlation with H-shares and A-shares:
the S&P 500 CS 15/60 has high correlation with the broader S&P 500 Index. Although it is a consumer index, it has low correlation with Hong Kong shares and A-shares. Hence, the S&P 500 CS 15/60 could complement H-shares and A-shares in investor asset allocations that seek to reduce total portfolio risk and enhance portfolio returns.
景順長城致力成爲國內最領先ETF的基金管理公司。截至2024年7月15日，景順長城旗下共有16只ETF，覆蓋寬基、行業/主題、跨境和smart beta等，產品線較爲完善。其中，景順長城標普消費精選ETF（場內簡稱“標普消費ETF”，基金代碼“159529”）於2024年1月24日成立，2024年2月2日發佈，跟蹤標普500消費精選指數，也是國內唯一一隻跟蹤美股消費賽道的ETF。
China ETF:
Invesco Great Wall (IGW) S&P Consumer Select ETF (IGW S&P CS ETF: 159529 CH, not rated) is the only exchange-traded fund (ETF) in China that tracks US consumer stocks, as represented by the S&P 500 CS 15/60. IGW S&P CS ETF, which was set up on 24 Jan 2024 and launched on 2 Feb 2024, is one of the 16 ETFs in the Chinese market that provide broad-based investment coverage across sectors and themes, including cross-border and smart beta.
