新科学家：人类未来依然光明，别悲观|双语精读

写在前面

这周的「考研英语真题精读专栏」我们讲考研英语一2013 Text 3的真题原文。这篇文章来自《新科学家》2012年3月5日一篇名为The Future is Bright for Humanity的文章。作者反驳了现在人们对未来的悲观态度，指出人们拥有光明的前景。虽然是8年前的文章，但此时此刻的我们仍然有益，推荐大家阅读。

这篇文章我们会分为两周来完成，上周我们学习了第1-4段🔗 新科学家：面对行星撞地球、流感爆发、气候变化，人类还能保持乐观吗？ 今天带大家学习文章的第五到七段。

食用指南

在正式开始阅读前，我先教大家如何最大化的利用好 “考研英语真题精读” 这个专栏的内容。

如果你是 今明两年内 会参 加考研的同学（而且还没有开始做真题），先不要阅读原文，直接阅读每个段落的”词汇讲解“部分，打好词汇基础。等到以后做完真题后，再打开本文，阅读语篇分析，查漏补缺。

如果你是 已考上研究生 或 今明两年内 不会参加 考研 的同学，可直接把这篇文章当做一篇普通的外刊文章来阅读。 考研英语真题选自原汁原味的外刊，并且有一定难度，跟下来对提高阅读理解能力大有裨益。

真题原文

大家先跟着音频独立阅读原文，有读不懂的地方不要紧，后面会有详细的讲解。

P erhaps willfully, it may be easier to think about such lengthy timescales than about the more immediate future. The potential evolution of today's technology, and its social consequences, is dazzlingly complicated, and it's perhaps best left to science fiction writers and futurologists to explore the many possibilities we can envisage. That's one reason why we have launched Arc, a new publication dedicated to the near future.

B ut take a longer viewand there is a surprising amount that we can say with considerable assurance. As so often, the past holds the key to the future: we have now identified enough of the long-term patterns shaping the history of the planet, and our species, to make evidence-based forecasts about the situations in which our descendants will find themselves.

T his long perspective makes the pessimistic view of our prospects seem more likely to be a passing fad. To be sure, the future is not all rosy. But we are now knowledgeable enough to reduce many of the risks that threatened the existence of earlier humans, and to improve the lot of those to come.

真题精读

第五段阐述近期未来难以预测 。

① Perhaps willfully , it may be easier to think about such lengthy timescales than about the more immediate future.

📒 语篇分析： ① 句指出思考遥远未来比近期未来更加容易。such lengthy timescales指代上文的thousands of years，实现段间衔接。

• willful 义为“任性的，一意孤行的” (c ontinuing to do what you want, even after you have been told to stop – used to show disapproval)。

• 副词形式为 willfully 。比如 2018 年商务部新闻发布会上的一句话： If the US willfully pursues unilateralism and trade protectionism, China will fight resolutely till the end. 如果美方一意孤行，坚持搞单边主义、贸易保护主义，中方将坚决斗争，奉陪到底。
  

• 顺便扩展一下短语 at will 表示“任意，随意” (whenever or wherever you like) ，比如 ◇They were able to come and go at will . 他们能够来去自由。比如电影《乔乔兔的异想世界》里就出现过这个短语：

  

• lengthy 指“冗长的，漫长的” (you u se lengthy to describe an event or process which lasts for a long time) ，比如 ◇ lengthy report / article 冗长的报告 / 文章。
• timescale [ˈtaɪmskeɪl] 指“时间，时段” (the period of time it takes for something to happen or be completed) 。 这里的such lengthy timescales指代上文的thousands of years，与后文the more immediate future相对。
  
  

② The potential evolution of today's technology, and its social consequences, is dazzlingly complicated, and it' s perhaps best left to s cience fiction writers and futurologists to explore the many possibilities we can envisage .

📒语篇分析：②句承接①句，说明近期未来难以预测的原因以及解决方式。

• dazzling [ˈdæzlɪŋ] 义为“辉煌的，灿烂的” ( something that is dazzling is very impressive or beautiful) 。副词形式为 dazzlingly ，比如 ◇The view was dazzlingly beautiful. 景色美轮美奂。

• dazzle 为动词，本义是“使…目眩，使…眼花”，引申为“使…倾倒，使…眼花缭乱” ( to impress sb a lot with your beauty, skill, etc) 。比如 ◇He was dazzled by the warmth of her smile. 她那温柔的微笑使他神魂颠倒。近义表达还有 impress, astonish, take sb’s breath away, sweep sb off their feet 。
  

• leave sth to sb 表示“把某事交给某人” ( to allow sb to take care of sth) 。比如 ◇You can leave the cooking to me. 你可以把做饭的事交给我。 ◇I was left to cope on my own. 就剩下我一个人来单独对付。
• futurology [ˌfjuːtʃə'rɒlədʒɪ] 义为“未来学” ( the activity of trying to say correctly what will happen in the future) 。
• envisage [ɪn'vɪzɪdʒ] 指“展望，设想” (to think that something is likely to happen in the future) 。 比如 ◇ He had never envisaged spending the whole of his working life in that particular job. 他从没有想象过自己整个职业生涯都要从事那个工作。近义表达还有envision, imagine, contemplate, picture。

③ That's one reason why we have launched Arc, a new publication dedicated to the near future.

📒语篇分析：③句指出②是创办新刊物的原因，同时③也是②句提到的“将可能性留给科幻小说家和未来学家探索”的例证。代 词that实现 句间衔接。

• publication 指“出版物，书，刊物” (a book , magazine etc) 。
• dedicate sth / oneself to sth 义为“致力于，献身于” (to give all your attention and effort to one particular thing) ，比如 ◇She dedicates herself to her work. 她献身于自己的工作。 ◇He dedicated his life to helping the poor. 他毕生致力于帮助穷人。
• 被动形式 be dedicated to sth 也很常见，表示“致力于某事”，比如 ◇We'realso dedicated to keeping costs low. 我们还致力于保持成本低廉。
  
• dedicated 指“热忱的，有奉献精神的” (someone who is dedicated works very hard at what they do because they care a lot about it) ，口语中常用于表达“敬业的”，如 a dedicated and thoughtful teacher 一位富有敬业精神、关心学生的教师。再比如美剧《血疫》的剧末有这样一段话：
  

读完讲解之后，我们再把第五段的两句话连起来再阅读一遍：

“

Perhaps willfully, it may be easier to think about such lengthy timescales than about the more immediate future. The potential evolution of today's technology, and its social consequences, is dazzlingly complicated, and it's perhaps best left to science fiction writers and futurologists to explore the many possibilities we can envisage. That's one reason why we have launched Arc, a new publication dedicated to the near future.

”

参考译文：或许有人会执拗地认为，与思考即将到来的未来相比，思考如此之长的时间跨度似乎更为容易。现在技术可能的进步，以及它所带来的社会影响，复杂得令人眩晕，或许最好把我们所能想象到的诸多可能性留给科幻小说家和未来学家们去探索。而这也是我们创办致力于研究近期未来的新刊物《弧线》的一个原因。

第六段阐述遥远未来可以预测 。

① But take a longer view and there is a surprising amount that we can say with considerable assurance .

📒 语篇分析： ①句提出观点，指出我们可以预测的事情多得惊人。

• take a longer view 指“从长远看”，与上文 take a broader look 互为同义替换。

• considerable 指“ 相当大的” (fairly large, especially large enough to have an effect or be important) 。

• assurance 指“信心，把握” (if yo u do something with assurance, you do it with a feeling of confidence and certainty) ，常用搭配为 with assurance 。动词形式为 assure 。

② As so often, the past holds the key to the future: we have now identified enough of the long-term patterns shaping the history of the planet, and our species, to make evidence-based forecasts about the situations in which our descendants will find themselves .

📒 语篇分析： ②句具体说明我们如何通过过去预测未来。

• hold the key to sth 指“掌握着 … 的关键”，比如 ◇But Macron is also a pragmatist, and he realizes that Putin holds the key to solving a lot of problems. 但是马克龙是实用主义者，他意识到普京掌握着解决许多问题的关键。
• identify [aɪ'dentɪfaɪ] 义为“认出，识别” (to recognize and correctly name someone or something) 。
• evidence-based 义为“基于事实的”，比如 ◇And as a country, we have to keep working to reduce drug use through evidence-based treatment, prevention, and recovery. 从国家而言，我们应该继续通过有效的治疗、预防和康复方式减少药物滥用。
• descendant [dɪ'send(ə)nt] 指“后代，后裔” (someone who is related to a person who lived a long time ago, or to a family, group of people etc that existed in the past) ，其反义为 ancestor ，指“祖先”。
  
• find sb in sth/adj./doing sth 表示“发现自己处于某种状态”，比如 ◇ She woke up and found herself in a hospital bed. 她醒来发觉自己躺在医院的床上。

我们再把第六段连起来再阅 读一遍：

“

But take a longer view and there is a surprising amount that we can say with considerable assurance. As so often, the past holds the key tothe future: we have now identified enough of the long-term patterns shaping the history of the planet, and our species, to make evidence-based forecasts about the situations in which our descendants will find themselves.

”

参考译文：然而，从更长远的视角来看，我们能预测到的事情多得惊人。正如许多时候，过去是通向未来之门的钥匙：我们现在已经识别出了足够多塑造地球和人类历史的长期模式，这使得我们能够有根据地预测子孙未来的生存环境。

第七段总结评价全文。

① This long perspective makes the pessimistic view of our prospects seem more likely to be a p assing fad .

📒语篇分析： ① 句呼应文章前半部分，表明悲观的观点只是一时的流行。this实现段间衔接。

• perspective [pəˈspektɪv] 义为“观点，角度” (a particular attitude towards sth; a way of thinking about sth) ，与 view ， viewpoint 互为同义替换。常用搭配为 from one’s perspective 指“从 … 的角度看”。

• pessimistic [ˌpesɪˈmɪstɪk] 指“悲观的 ” (expecting bad things to happen or sth not to be successful; showing this) ， 与 optimistic 相对。这里的 pessimistic view 与上文的 gloominess 互为同义替换。近义表达 gloomy, bleak, negative 。

• fad 指“一时的狂热，风尚” (something that people like or do for a short time, or that is fashionable for a short time) 。

• a passing fad 表示“昙花一现”，比如◇ Rap music proved to be more than just a passing fad . 事实证明，说唱音乐并不是昙花一现。

• 我们在 如何看《现代爱情》学地道英文？ 这篇文章还学过一个同样表示“昙花一现”的表达： a flash in the pan 。带大家复习一下。

② To be sure , the future is not all rosy . ③ But we are now knowledgeable enough to reduce many of the risks that threatened the existence of earlier humans, and to improve the lot of those to come.

📒 语篇分析： ② 句通过to be sure让步，指出未来也不全是美好的。 ③句再以but转折，再次强调我们当前知识可以抵御和改善风险，重申 “人类未来可期”的观点。

• To be sure... but... 表示“确实，...但是，...” 。我们可以用这一句型来表示“先让步后转折”。我们在经济学人精读社还讲过一系列表示“让步”的地道句型，老学员们可以复习一下。 [写作推荐]
  

• rosy rose指“玫瑰花”，rosy本义是“红润的，粉红色的”，喻指“美好的 ，充满成功希望的” (seeming to offer hope of success or happiness) ，常用搭配有 ◇a rosy future 一片光明的未来 ◇paint a rosy picture 描绘美好的前景。比如 ◇But other indicators paint a less rosy picture. 但其他指标却不太乐观。 [熟词僻义 ]
• knowledgeable [ˈnɒlɪdʒəbl ̩]  指“ 有知识的，知识渊博的” (knowing a lot) 。比如 ◇Graham’ s very knowledgeable about wines. 格雷厄姆对葡萄酒很在行。
• sth to come 表示“未来的...”，比如 ◇generations to come 将来的一代代人，即“后代” ◇years to come 未来几年。再比如《经济学人》一篇关于极端高温的文章有这样一句话： But even if net emissions are reduced to zero this century, the persistence of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere means that heatwaves will continue to get worse for decades to come . 但即使净排放量在本世纪降到零，大气中长久积聚的温室气体也意味着热浪在未来几十年将继续恶化。 [写作推荐]

  

我们再把第七段连起来再阅 读一遍：

“

This long perspective makes the pessimistic view of our prospects seem more likely to be apassing fad. To be sure, the future is not all rosy. But we are now knowledgeable enough to reduce many of the risks that threatened the existence of earlier humans, and to improve the lot of those to come.

”

参考译文：这种长远视角使得对未来悲观的观点看起来更像是一时的风潮。当然，未来并非一片美好。但是我们现有的知识足以降低威胁前人生存的风险，并能改善后人的命运。

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