【经济学人】北极冰盖融化对全球天气造成影响 | 2017.04.29 | 总第896期

SHRINKING Arctic ice is sure to have unwelcome effects elsewhere on the planet. But what, precisely? Glaciologists and meteorologists are working furiously to understand two particularly complex issues that may cause huge upheavals: the stability of the Greenland ice sheet and its potential contribution to rising sea levels; and extreme weather elsewhere in the world that might result from the demise of the Arctic’s white wastes.

不断缩小的北极冰盖为全球其他地区带来了不利影响。但是，具体有何影响？冰川学家和气象学家正在努力研究两个十分复杂而且可能带来巨大影响的实际问题：一个是格陵兰冰原的稳定性及其对海平面上涨的潜在作用；另一个是北极冰盖消融导致世界其他地区形成的极端天气。

• Glaciologist：n. 冰川学家

• Meteorologist：n. 气象学者

• Furiously：adv. 猛烈地；狂暴地

• Upheaval：n. 剧变；隆起；举起

Since the 1970s the Arctic has been the main cause of rising sea levels around the world. Over two-thirds of the Arctic’s contribution derives from ice loss from Greenland, according to the latest SWIPA report. But little is known about how Greenland’s vast ice sheet will react to future warming.

自1970年以来，北极一直是全世界海平面上涨的“元凶”。根据最新的SWIPA报告，北极冰消融的情况有三分之二以上发生在格陵兰。但鲜有人知的是，在未来的气候变暖过程中，格陵兰的大面积冰盖将何去何从。

• Arctic：adj. 北极的；极寒的

The dynamics of outlet glaciers and ice streams as they flow—ever faster—into the Arctic ocean, how pressurised meltwater combines with soft sediments to lubricate the bed of Greenland’s ice sheet, and the impact of increased darkening across the ice sheet’s surface are all poorly understood, says Alun Hubbard, a glaciologist at the University of Tromso. “Greenland is a large, sleeping giant being prodded by many different processes on all sides,” he explains.

特罗姆瑟大学的冰川学家Alun Hubbard表示，注出冰川和冰流流入北冰洋的动态变化、融化后的压力更大的水与松软沉积物如何滋润格陵兰的冰原，以及冰原表面变暗来所带来的影响，对于这些问题我们知之甚少：“格陵兰是一个正在受到来自四面八方各种刺激而又沉睡着的庞大巨人。”

• Outlet glacier：注出冰川；穿出冰川

Getting to grips with what is going on will be tough. Fieldwork on Greenland’s remote ice sheet is expensive and logistically taxing. But what is known now is frightening enough. Even if current emissions remain stable, the consensus is that global sea levels will rise by 74cm by the end of the century. Vast coastal cities such as Rotterdam, New York and Mumbai will suffer.

想要了解接下来会发生什么并不容易。在格陵兰远端冰原上进行野外工作的成本非常昂贵，而且后勤供给也相当困难。不过，仅凭已知的信息就已经非常骇人听闻了。科学家们已经达成共识的是，即使排放量保持稳定，到本世纪末，全球海平面也会上升74cm。这意味着鹿特丹、纽约和孟买等大量沿海城市将面临困境。

• Taxing：adj. 费力的；繁重的

• Consensus：n. 一致；舆论；合意

These may still be among the luckier ones: governments are more likely to pay to protect expensive property than poor rural settlements. Some villages in Alaska need relocating already. Receding sea ice has exposed coastlines to erosion from waves. But federal, state and local authorities are squabbling over how to do it and who should pay, even on this small scale.

这些可能还不是最糟糕的，因为政府会倾向于拨款保护富足的地区，而非那些贫困的村落。阿拉斯加州的一些村庄已经需要开始搬迁。海冰不断融化使海岸线裸露出来，并受到海浪的冲击侵蚀。但是联邦、州政府和当地主管部门还在围绕如何确定治理方案和出资方而相互推诿。

• Recede：vi. 后退；减弱
  

Floods of icy meltwater will change the weather, too. By altering the salinity and temperature of different parts of the sea, circulation patterns both within the Arctic ocean and, consequently, in the atmosphere will change. That will affect weather and climate phenomena, such as India’s monsoon season, thousands of miles to the south. Scientists agree as much. Where they differ is on just how large the effect will be and which processes are involved.（读者试译）

融化冰水的大潮也将改变天气。由于海洋不同区域的盐度和温度发生变化，北冰洋乃至大气中的环流情况都会发生改变并且这会影响到天气和气候现象，例如印度季风期的覆盖范围将向南方移动数千英里。（期待您的翻译，明天会有针对这句话的长难句解析哟~）

• Salinity：n. 盐度；盐分

• Monsoon：n. 季风

Extreme cold snaps pose a particular puzzle in this regard. Changes to wind patterns can bring cooler weather farther south, which could help explain frigid conditions in north-eastern America in recent winters. But these wind shifts have to be large enough to cancel out more general background warming stemming from the loss of sea ice, says James Screen of the University of Exeter. “In north-west Europe, it seems that these two effects of melting sea ice roughly balance out,” he says. But climatic imbalances from Arctic melting could prove far more harmful elsewhere in the world.

就此而言，极端寒潮是一个很特别的难题。季风类型的变化会为更南部地区带来更凉爽的天气，这就解释了美洲东北部在近几年冬天为何出奇寒冷。但是，这些风向的转变需要足够强劲才能抵消由于海冰融化而导致的更为普遍的全球气候变暖背景。埃克塞特大学的James Screen如是说：“在欧洲西北部，融化海冰导致的这两种效果似乎相互抵消了。“但可以确定的是，北极冰盖融化所导致的气候失衡在世界其他地区带来了更加深远的不利影响。

• Cold snap：寒流，寒潮

翻译 ▍陌生、Serena、c

审核 ▍妖精

图文编辑 ▍澜意

责任编辑 ▍毛毛