西北欧卷材价格上涨能否持续值得怀疑

Kallanish国际钢铁资讯 · 公众号 · · 2019-12-19 09:31

正文

12 月西北欧钢铁企业终于成功地提高卷材价格，但许多市场参与者认为，涨价不会持续太久。

North-western European steelmakers havefinally succeeded in raising coil prices in December, but many market players believe that the hikes are something that will not last.

德国一些消息人士早些时候告诉 Kallanish （开阑商务信息咨询），之前热轧卷价格低点约为 400 欧元 / 吨（ 446 美元 / 吨）出厂价，现已被提高，但他们对涨价幅度看法不一。根据之前达成的交易，涨价幅度预计在 10-40 欧元 / 吨之间，该价格区间也得到比荷卢经济联盟买家的证实。

Various German sources told Kallanish earlier that the low point of around €400/tonne ($446/t) ex-works for hot-rolledcoil had been raised, but gave different assessments of the premium achieved.Depending on the earlier deals, the hikes are seen between €10-40/t, a range also confirmed by buyers in Benelux.

一位荷兰服务中心经理警告称：“最大的问题是，这是由于已等待太久的大多数买家开始补充库存，还是由于积极的经济发展形势带来结构性改善。”他补充说：“我们注意到，在与钢厂联系和谈判时，他们对报价的态度非常强硬。”

“The big question is whether this is because of restocking as most buyers have waited too long, or if it’s as tructural improvement due to positive economic development,” one Dutch service centre manager cautions. “We noticed when speaking and negotiating with mills that they are very tough with their offers,” he adds.

另一位荷兰消息人士也认为，钢厂正在非常努力地提高价格。但他较为悲观，他认为钢厂只能在一定时期内维持他们的立场，即从现在到 2020 年 1 月底。 “价格持续上涨面临的主要困难在于需求整体大幅下降，主要来自汽车行业，” 他表示。“供应链中的资源实在太多了。”

Another Dutch source agrees that mills are pushing very hard to increase their prices. He is more pessimistic however in that he believes that mills will only be able to maintain their stance for acertain period, from now until the end of January 2020. “The main difficulty for longer lasting price increases is an overall strong reduction in demand,mainly coming from the automotive,” he says. “There is simply too much materialin the supply chain.“

热轧卷价格平均为 420 欧元 / 吨，但以更高和更低价格达成的交易都很常见。冷轧卷和热镀锌价格高出约 100 欧元 / 吨。

Prices for HRC are €420/t on average,but both higher and lower deals are common. For CRC and HDG, prices are some€100/t higher.