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【原文推送】克罗谈投资策略（21）

投资圈女混混 · 公众号 · 投资 · 2017-04-26 22:34

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第十六章杰西·利弗莫尔此人

The Man They Called J.L

As the plump aluminum bird curved westward toward Fort Lauderdale, the luminescent color delineation between the Gulf Stream and the ocean was outstanding. I slumped back in my seat while the jumbo began its final approach, reflecting on the main reason for my Florida fishing trip this Christmas vacation. I felt a compelling fellowship for a man they called J. L., and I was here because he used to come here.

当飞机在劳德岱尔堡西面盘旋时，下面湾流和大西洋间明丽的色彩十分壮观。巨大的客机开始降落的时候，我整个人陷入椅背，想着这次趁圣诞节假期，到佛罗里达钓鱼的真正目的。我渴望见到一位叫杰西·利弗莫尔的同行。我到这里来，是因为他过去也常到这里来。

I could picture him in his heyday in the 1920s, tall, trim, and intense, seated by the window of the speeding New York-Florida express. Anticipating days of fishing and fellowship, relaxation and contemplation - and most important a respite, albeit brief, from his heroic battles in the arenas of Wall Street and Chicago. His name was Jesse Lauriston Livermore.

我可以想象20年代他在黄金岁月的模样，高瘦的个子，穿戴整齐，热情，坐在从纽约驶向佛罗里达快车的窗边。他心里期待着钓鱼，跟好友相聚，放松身心并深思——最重要的，在华尔街和芝加哥英勇的战役之后，虽然时间短暂，也得休息一下。他的名字叫杰西·利弗莫尔。

Throughout this century, scores of brilliant or lucky market operators have had the heady and envious sensation of closing a position with a seven-figure (to the left of the decimal point) profit. I myself, on a few rare occasions, have been fortunate enough to have been included in this exclusive group. But Livermore was in a class by himself. For the sheer scope and magnitude of his gutsy operations, for the disciplined and calculating way in which he bought and sold, for the lonely and detached hand that he invariably played, he has never been surpassed by any operator.

这个世纪，不少才华洋溢或幸运的市场交易者，都有过令人兴奋和嫉妒的平仓动作，赚了7位数字的财富（当然是小数点左边的7位数）。我自己，也小赚几次，很幸运地能进入赚钱高手的行列。但是利弗莫尔这样的人，只有他一个。他艺高人胆大，买卖时严守纪律，计算精准，独自行动，从来没有一个交易者能超越他。

He was born in Shrewsbury, Massachusetts, in 1877, the sole child of a poor farming couple. At age 14 he left home for a job; he earned $3 a week as a board marker at a Boston brokerage office. From this modest start, and continuing through several years of apprenticeship trading odd lots at sundry bucket shops along the East Coast, this quiet, dedicated young man became one of the most feared and admired market operators during the first third of this century.

他出生在1877年的美国马萨诸塞州什鲁斯伯里，是贫穷农家的独子。14岁的时候，他出去找工作。在波士顿一家经纪公司里当行情看板填写员，周薪只有3元。从这么个不显眼的工作做起，再加上多年在东岸好几家投机商号交易小单，这位沉默，专注的年轻人，成了本世纪初30年中，最叫人敬畏，赞叹的市场交易者。

Livermore’s universe was price fluctuations-both stock and commodity-and his obsession, the accurate projection of those prices. In fact, Edward J. Dies, one of the great financial commentators of that era, observed that, “should Livermore be shorn of every dollar, given a small brokerage credit, and locked in a room with tickers and phones, within a few active market months, he would reemerge with a new fortune.”

利弗莫尔的整个宇宙就是价格的波动——包括股票和商品——和他的最爱：精确地预测这些价格。那个时代最伟大的金融评论家之一爱德华·J·戴斯指出：“即使利弗莫尔不名一文，只要经纪商给他一点点贷款，把他关在只有报价机和电话的房间中，在市场中奋斗几个月后，他又会再富起来。”

From my earliest Wall Street days, starting in 1959, Livermore was my hero. And as I began developing some expertise in price analysis and trading, he became my coach and mentor in absentia. Like many investors, I've been influenced by his tactics, strategy and market philosophy.

从1959年我开始在华尔街混饭吃开始，利弗莫尔就是我的英雄。我开始钻研价格分析和交易方法时，利弗莫尔就是我不曾谋面的教练和导师。跟很多投资者一样，他的战术、策略和市场哲学，对我影响很大。

“There is only one side of the market, and it is not the bull side or the bear side,” he wrote, “but the right side” (Edwin Lefevre, Reminiscences of a Stock Operator (Greenville ers Press, 1923, republished 1985.)). That basic philosophy is indelibly etched in my mind, and I revert to it every time I read some lofty or tedious market analysis excessively focused on contentious argument rather than on practical market analysis and strategy.

“市场只有一个方向，不是多头，也不是空头，”他曾写过这么一句话，“而是做对的方向。”（《股票作手回忆录》是用笔名爱德温·李费佛写的，1923年出版，1985年重印。）这个基本哲学已经深深铭刻在我心底，难以抹灭。每次我看到有人长篇大论，言不及义，所谈过分集中在争议上，而不谈务实的市场分析和策略时，就会想到这句话。

Like most traders, I frequently face the decision of which positions to stick with and which to close out. And here, Livermore provides excellent, pinpoint counsel through a commentary describing his own mistakes. “I did precisely the wrong thing,” he wrote. “The cotton showed me a loss and I kept it. The wheat showed me a profit and I sold it out. Of all the speculative blunders, there are few greater than trying to average a losing game. Always sell (close out) what shows you a loss and keep what shows you a profit.” (Et tu, Livermore?)

跟大多数交易者一样，我也常常面临要保留哪个仓位，平掉哪个仓位的决定。这一方面，利弗莫尔有一段精辟入理的话，描述他自己所犯的错误，一针见血地给了我建议：“我竟然犯了这样的错误，棉花亏损了，而我还留在手里。小麦有利润，而我却把它平掉了。在所有的投机错误中，摊平亏损是很大的错误。有损失的，都要平掉，有利润的，都要留着。”（利弗莫尔，你也会犯错呀？）

However, Livermore’s most significant legacy to investors concerns an overall strategy regarding investment objectives. It is particularly relevant during these times when traders are becoming increasingly dependent on powerful microcomputers and associated software. Even relatively inexperienced traders are swinging in and out of sizable positions on the basis of tick-by-tick and on-line, short-term computerized chart presentations.

不过利弗莫尔留给投资者最重要的遗产，是包括投资目标在内的整套策略。现在交易者越来越仰赖强有力的电脑和相关软件。即使是没什么经验的交易者，也常根据不断跳动的电脑图形在短线进出，他们很少自己研究策略，其实利弗莫尔的看法更显得重要。

Pay heed to this piece of Livermore wisdom:

请注意体会利弗莫尔的智慧：

After spending many years on Wall Street, and after making and losing millions of dollars, I want to tell you this. It never was my thinking that made the big money for me. It was my sitting. Got that? My sitting tight. It is no trick at all to be right on the market. You always find lots of early bulls in bull markets and lots of early bears in bear markets. I have known many men who were right at exactly the right time, and began buying or selling when prices were at the very level which should have made the greatest profit. And, their experience invariably matched mine. That is, they made no real money out of it. Men who can both be right and sit tight are uncommon. I found it one of the hardest things to learn. But it is only after a market operator has firmly grasped this that he can make big money. It is literally true that millions come easier to a trader after he knows how to trade, than hundreds did in the days of his ignorance.

在华尔街打滚多年，赚了几百万元，也亏过几百万元之后，我要告诉你这些。我能赚那么多钱，靠的不是我的想法，而是我的坐法。听得懂这句话吗？我一直坐得纹风不动。看对市场正确的一边，根本不算什么大本领。我们总是能看到多头市场里面，有很多人老早就做多，空头市场里，也有很多人老早就做空。我知道有很多人在恰到好处的时间做对了恰到好处的事情，他们开始买入和卖出的价位，正是最能赚钱的价位。但是他们的经验总是跟我一样，也就是说，他们根本没赚到钱。能够做对事情，而且能坐住的人才是高手。我觉得这是最难学的。但是市场交易者只有真正懂得这点，才能赚大钱。交易者懂得了怎么去交易，赚几百万元易如反掌，而且比他在不懂得交易时赚几百块钱还容易。

But perhaps the most significant of Livermore’s considerable wisdom was contained in this quote (I have always felt that he wasn’t just referring to market operations here-perhaps this is also a universal strategy for dealing in the game of life). “Losing money is the least of my troubles. A loss never bothers me after I take it. But being wrong - not taking the loss - that is what does the damage to the pocketbook and to the soul.”

但是利弗莫尔最重要的智慧包含在下面这句话中（我总觉得这句话不仅仅指市场交易——也许那正是人生的至理）：“对我来说，亏钱是最小的麻烦。认亏之后，亏损再也不会困扰我。做错事——不认赔——才会伤害口袋和心灵。”

Regrettably, my Florida fishing trip was much too short, and, about a week later, I was back in the frozen canyons of New York. While waiting for the big ones to affix themselves to my hook, I thought a lot about Livermore and his Florida fishing junkets, about his strategy and his considerable market wisdom. And, while his catch was undoubtedly more bountiful than my modest bunch of kingfish, I reveled in one advantage he couldn’t possibly have had-I was able to study and enjoy his books and writings.

很遗憾，我的佛罗里达钓鱼之旅太短暂了，一个星期后，我又回到了忙碌的纽约市。垂钓时，等着大鱼上钩的时候，我不断想起利弗莫尔和他到佛罗里达钓鱼的情景，他的策略以及他那深邃的市场智慧。虽然他钓到的鱼比我多，但是有件事我一定比他强，那就是我可以研究和享受他的著作和文章，他却没有这方面的著作做参考。

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